Quartermaster Ranking Regatta (GOLD)

HostBellarmine/Charles Wright/Gig Harbor
Date03/17/2018
TypeDistrict Champ Qualifier
BoatCFJ
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Orcas High School	Vikings	54	50	104
2	Olympia High School	Bears	91	29	120
3	Wolverines	Wolverines	25	119	144
4	Gig Harbor High School	Tides	111	37	148
5	Charles Wright Academy	Tarriers	65	97	162
6	Sehome High School	Mariners	103	83	186
7	Ingraham High School	Rams	72	116	188
8	Capital High School	Capital Varsity	110	84	194
9	Central Kitsap High School	Cougars	99	95	194
10	Nathan Hale High School	Raiders	93	123	216
11	Roosevelt High School	Rough Riders	90	128	218
12	Oak Harbor High School	Wildcats	96	130	226
13	North Kitsap High School	Dogfish	123	106	229
14	Bellingham High School	Raiders	148	102	250
15	Anacortes High School	Seahawks	127	125	252
16	Hood River Valley High School	Eagles	147	112	259
17	Lycee Francais de Chicago	Red Hawks	180	163	343
18	Inglemoor High School	Vikings	161	187	348
19	Kingston High School	Varsity	203	209	412

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	TOT	Sailors
Wolverines	Wolverines	3	4	2	2	3	1	3	2	3	1	1	25
Orcas High School	Vikings	9	1	1	1	5	2	8	10	7	7	3	54	Maggie Toombs '18 Emma Freedman '19
Charles Wright Academy	Tarriers	8	DNF	5	7	2	3	1	1	1	2	15	65	Alyosha Strum-Palerm '18 [1-2, 5-10] Hayden Flaskerud '20 [3-4, 11] Nicholas Lee '20 [1-2, 5-10] Ben Brink '22 [3-4, 11]
Ingraham High School	Rams	4	6	11	4	1	5	14	11	10	4	2	72	Maks Groom '20 Aragorn Crozier '20
Roosevelt High School	Rough Riders	12	2	6	10	10	6	6	14	2	11	11	90	Miles Williams '20 Abbie Chipps '21
Olympia High School	Bears	5	5	DSQ	3	4	12	12	7	14	5	4	91	Max Miller '18 Isabelle Stokesberry Miles-Paulson '18
Nathan Hale High School	Raiders	7	12	8	9	6	10	10	4	5	10	12	93	Margot Watts '19 Colette Royer '18
Oak Harbor High School	Wildcats	10	7	12	8	14	8	4	5	9	13	6	96	Jordan Wood-Pina '18 Catherine Wicker '20
Central Kitsap High School	Cougars	11	3	18	16	11	11	7	3	8	3	8	99	Niko Twilla '18 Becca Sharpe '18
Sehome High School	Mariners	2	8	16	12	8	13	9	6	12	12	5	103	Lera Anders '23 Peyton Nienaber '23
Capital High School	Capital Varsity	6	10	3	5	16	16	13	9	4	14	14	110	Annie Buelt '20 Caroline Hurley '20
Gig Harbor High School	Tides	1	11	14	6	7	7	DSQ	12	17	9	7	111	Axel Stordahl '20 [1-11] Ryalls Peter '19 [1-2, 5-11] No Show [3-4]
North Kitsap High School	Dogfish	13	9	7	13	15	15	5	17	13	6	10	123	Anna Sherry '19 Isabelle Loverich '19
Anacortes High School	Seahawks	14	13	13	14	9	14	2	8	15	16	9	127	Liam Patrick '18 Satone Haratani '20
Hood River Valley High School	Eagles	15	17	4	18	13	9	11	13	16	15	16	147	Erin Sutherland '18 Audrey Becker '18
Bellingham High School	Raiders	19	14	10	17	12	17	16	16	6	8	13	148	Jack Knowles '22 Forrest Rehberger '22
Inglemoor High School	Vikings	17	15	9	15	17	4	17	18	11	18	DNS	161	Zach Liang '18 [1-11] Tian Marchello '20 [1-2, 5-6, 9-11] Johnny Satterlee '19 [3-4, 7-8]
Lycee Francais de Chicago	Red Hawks	16	18	15	11	19	19	15	15	18	17	17	180	Luca Gesinger '20 [1-11] Henry Stier '19 [1-8] Jenna Hiegel '21 [9-11]
Kingston High School	Varsity	18	16	17	19	18	18	18	19	DNS	DNS	DNS	203	Noah Pluska '19 [1-6] Annelise Pardee '19 [7-11] Dylan Chandler '18 [1-8, 11] Trenton Filben '23 [9-10]

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	TOT	Sailors
Olympia High School	Bears	3	3	1	1	1	2	2	7	5	2	2	29	Owen Timms '19 Evan Krug '19
Gig Harbor High School	Tides	1	9	4	3	4	1	6	4	1	1	3	37	Ryan Squires '18 Ripley Morris '19
Orcas High School	Vikings	2	1	2	4	2	DSQ	1	8	2	7	1	50	Dominick Wareham '19 Millie Kau '19
Sehome High School	Mariners	9	12	3	5	6	6	12	13	7	6	4	83	Emma Powell '22 Mallory Hood '23
Capital High School	Capital Varsity	6	2	9	15	11	13	4	6	3	9	6	84	Joy Brennan '20 Ann Li '20
Central Kitsap High School	Cougars	7	14	6	11	7	10	7	9	8	5	11	95	Tyler Nolasco '19 [1-11] Shea Kuligowski '19 [1-6] Travis Bouck '20 [7-11]
Charles Wright Academy	Tarriers	10	16	7	2	3	3	5	17	10	8	16	97	Jack Corddry '19 Ted Corddry '21
Bellingham High School	Raiders	15	6	13	7	9	4	9	15	6	3	15	102	Morgan Seestrom '22 [1-2] Lauren Wittkopf '22 [3-11] Sedona Webb '22 [1-2]
North Kitsap High School	Dogfish	8	7	14	9	10	9	8	11	13	10	7	106	Julia Sherry '19 [1-11] Anna Schroeder '19 [1-10] Cole Fox '18 [11]
Hood River Valley High School	Eagles	4	8	12	6	5	8	BKD	18	15	14	12	112	Pelle Bergstrom '19 Abby Bergemann '18
Ingraham High School	Rams	14	13	10	12	13	14	10	2	11	4	13	116	Max Kauffman '18 [1-11] Elie Simsch '20 [1-6] Formosa Huang '18 [7-11]
Wolverines	Wolverines	5	10	15	14	8	5	11	12	14	16	9	119
Nathan Hale High School	Raiders	18	4	11	10	15	7	13	5	17	15	8	123	Reilly Hearne '18 Jack Rovner '20
Anacortes High School	Seahawks	12	15	18	18	16	17	3	1	4	11	10	125	Anna Morrow '18 [1-6] Christopher Warmuth '18 [7-11] Olivia Schwartz '21 [1-6] Satone Haratani '20 [7-11]
Roosevelt High School	Rough Riders	17	11	8	8	14	12	15	14	12	12	5	128	Sam Kimmel '20 [1-11] Eilidh Haakanson '21 [1-6] Anna Wohnoutka '18 [7-11]
Oak Harbor High School	Wildcats	11	5	5	13	12	11	14	16	9	17	17	130	Jenny Danielson '20 Aiden Wright '21
Lycee Francais de Chicago	Red Hawks	13	17	16	16	19	16	DNS	3	16	13	14	163	Anna Wilke '19 Chance Bates '21
Inglemoor High School	Vikings	16	DNF	DNS	17	17	15	16	10	18	18	DNF	187	Lukas Paige '21 Ella Barnard '20
Kingston High School	Varsity	19	18	17	19	18	18	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	209	Morgan Chandler '20 [1-6] Noah Pluska '19 [7-11] Ian Mcconkey '21 [1-8, 11] James Huffman '23 [9-10]

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.230+0.23

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2018 (1 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A	7A	8A	9A	10A	11A
Anacortes High School Seahawks	98	98	84	84	108	108	112	112	110	110	44
Bellingham High School Raiders	53	53	126	126	102	102	103	103	9	9	4
Capital High School Capital Varsity	84	84	108	108	112	112	110	110	44	44	127
Central Kitsap High School Cougars	126	126	102	102	103	103	9	9	4	4	45
Charles Wright Academy Tarriers	108	108	112	112	110	110	44	44	127	127	82
Wolverines Wolverines	102	102	103	103	9	9	4	4	45	45	26
Gig Harbor High School Tides	112	112	110	110	44	44	127	127	82	82	63
Hood River Valley High School Eagles	103	103	9	9	4	4	45	45	26	26	8
Inglemoor High School Vikings	110	110	44	44	127	127	82	82	63	63	50
Ingraham High School Rams	9	9	4	4	45	45	26	26	8	8	98
Kingston High School Varsity	44	44	127	127	82	82	63	63	50	50	53
Lycee Francais de Chicago Red Hawks	63	63	50	50	53	53	126	126	102	102	103
Nathan Hale High School Raiders	4	4	45	45	26	26	8	8	98	98	84
North Kitsap High School Dogfish	127	127	82	82	63	63	50	50	53	53	126
Oak Harbor High School Wildcats	45	45	26	26	8	8	98	98	84	84	108
Olympia High School Bears	82	82	63	63	50	50	53	53	126	126	102
Orcas High School Vikings	26	26	8	8	98	98	84	84	108	108	112
Roosevelt High School Rough Riders	8	8	98	98	84	84	108	108	112	112	110
Sehome High School Mariners	50	50	53	53	126	126	102	102	103	103	9

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B	7B	8B	9B	10B	11B
Anacortes High School Seahawks	53	53	126	126	102	102	103	103	9	9	4
Bellingham High School Raiders	84	84	108	108	112	112	110	110	44	44	127
Capital High School Capital Varsity	126	126	102	102	103	103	9	9	4	4	45
Central Kitsap High School Cougars	108	108	112	112	110	110	44	44	127	127	82
Charles Wright Academy Tarriers	102	102	103	103	9	9	4	4	45	45	26
Wolverines Wolverines	112	112	110	110	44	44	127	127	82	82	63
Gig Harbor High School Tides	103	103	9	9	4	4	45	45	26	26	8
Hood River Valley High School Eagles	110	110	44	44	127	127	82	82	63	63	50
Inglemoor High School Vikings	9	9	4	4	45	45	26	26	8	8	98
Ingraham High School Rams	44	44	127	127	82	82	63	63	50	50	53
Kingston High School Varsity	4	4	45	45	26	26	8	8	98	98	84
Lycee Francais de Chicago Red Hawks	8	8	98	98	84	84	108	108	112	112	110
Nathan Hale High School Raiders	127	127	82	82	63	63	50	50	53	53	126
North Kitsap High School Dogfish	45	45	26	26	8	8	98	98	84	84	108
Oak Harbor High School Wildcats	82	82	63	63	50	50	53	53	126	126	102
Olympia High School Bears	26	26	8	8	98	98	84	84	108	108	112
Orcas High School Vikings	63	63	50	50	53	53	126	126	102	102	103
Roosevelt High School Rough Riders	50	50	53	53	126	126	102	102	103	103	9
Sehome High School Mariners	98	98	84	84	108	108	112	112	110	110	44

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Anacortes High School	Liam Patrick '18	Satone Haratani '20
Seahawks	Anna Morrow '18 [1-6] Christopher Warmuth '18 [7-11]	Olivia Schwartz '21 [1-6] Satone Haratani '20 [7-11]
Bellingham High School	Jack Knowles '22	Forrest Rehberger '22
Raiders	Morgan Seestrom '22 [1-2] Lauren Wittkopf '22 [3-11]	Sedona Webb '22 [1-2]
Capital High School	Annie Buelt '20	Caroline Hurley '20
Capital Varsity	Joy Brennan '20	Ann Li '20
Central Kitsap High School	Niko Twilla '18	Becca Sharpe '18
Cougars	Tyler Nolasco '19 [1-11]	Shea Kuligowski '19 [1-6] Travis Bouck '20 [7-11]
Charles Wright Academy	Alyosha Strum-Palerm '18 [1-2, 5-10] Hayden Flaskerud '20 [3-4, 11]	Nicholas Lee '20 [1-2, 5-10] Ben Brink '22 [3-4, 11]
Tarriers	Jack Corddry '19	Ted Corddry '21
Gig Harbor High School	Axel Stordahl '20 [1-11]	Ryalls Peter '19 [1-2, 5-11] No Show [3-4]
Tides	Ryan Squires '18	Ripley Morris '19
Hood River Valley High School	Erin Sutherland '18	Audrey Becker '18
Eagles	Pelle Bergstrom '19	Abby Bergemann '18
Inglemoor High School	Zach Liang '18 [1-11]	Tian Marchello '20 [1-2, 5-6, 9-11] Johnny Satterlee '19 [3-4, 7-8]
Vikings	Lukas Paige '21	Ella Barnard '20
Ingraham High School	Maks Groom '20	Aragorn Crozier '20
Rams	Max Kauffman '18 [1-11]	Elie Simsch '20 [1-6] Formosa Huang '18 [7-11]
Kingston High School	Noah Pluska '19 [1-6] Annelise Pardee '19 [7-11]	Dylan Chandler '18 [1-8, 11] Trenton Filben '23 [9-10]
Varsity	Morgan Chandler '20 [1-6] Noah Pluska '19 [7-11]	Ian Mcconkey '21 [1-8, 11] James Huffman '23 [9-10]
Lycee Francais de Chicago	Luca Gesinger '20 [1-11]	Henry Stier '19 [1-8] Jenna Hiegel '21 [9-11]
Red Hawks	Anna Wilke '19	Chance Bates '21
Nathan Hale High School	Margot Watts '19	Colette Royer '18
Raiders	Reilly Hearne '18	Jack Rovner '20
North Kitsap High School	Anna Sherry '19	Isabelle Loverich '19
Dogfish	Julia Sherry '19 [1-11]	Anna Schroeder '19 [1-10] Cole Fox '18 [11]
Oak Harbor High School	Jordan Wood-Pina '18	Catherine Wicker '20
Wildcats	Jenny Danielson '20	Aiden Wright '21
Olympia High School	Max Miller '18	Isabelle Stokesberry Miles-Paulson '18
Bears	Owen Timms '19	Evan Krug '19
Orcas High School	Maggie Toombs '18	Emma Freedman '19
Vikings	Dominick Wareham '19	Millie Kau '19
Roosevelt High School	Miles Williams '20	Abbie Chipps '21
Rough Riders	Sam Kimmel '20 [1-11]	Eilidh Haakanson '21 [1-6] Anna Wohnoutka '18 [7-11]
Sehome High School	Lera Anders '23	Peyton Nienaber '23
Mariners	Emma Powell '22	Mallory Hood '23

Conditions — 03/17/2018 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 72% · Pressure 1012.5 hPa

Temperature

47°F

↑ 55°F ↓ 38°F

Feels like 42°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

5.6 kn

avg · max 7.0 kn

Gusts to 16.3 kn

From SSW (213°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover71% Sunshine5.9 hrs Humidity72% Pressure1012.5 hPa Rain0.01 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SW 8 kn* · S 6 kn (*weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In this breeze at Bellarmine/Charles Wright/Gig Harbor: an underdogs’ day (−0.09)

Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.

Fleet adjustment +0.04 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast −0.05

Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.10 ± 0.09)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.09 means a rating gap counts about 8% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Bellarmine/Charles Wright/Gig Harbor by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 2 labelled days at Bellarmine/Charles Wright/Gig Harbor, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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