kingston '23
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.12 | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 0–3 (0%) as crew 1–7 (12%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 | 2 | 0–3 | 1–7 |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (11 matches) the record is 1–10 against 1.7 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−0.7). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 1 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-04-21 | NWISA Bellingham Team Race | crew | -0.37 | -0.96 | 1–7 | 1.4 | −0.58 | 0.1 | 81% |
| 2018-03-24 | NWISA Regional Team Race - Bainbridge | skipper | 0.59 | -2.41 | 0–3 | 0.3 | ≤−3.00 | 0.5 | >99% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 Season | |||||
| NWISA Regional Team Race - Bainbridge | Skipper | TR | 8 | 38% | — |
| NWISA Bellingham Team Race | Crew | TR | 14 | 7% | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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