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NWISA Fall South Regional

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Olympia High School Olympia High School Bears 1 18 25 43
2 Bainbridge High School Bainbridge High School Spartans 1 41 18 59
3 Capital High School Capital High School Capital Varsity 34 52 86
4 Central Kitsap High School Central Kitsap High School Cougars 1 38 51 89
5 Gig Harbor High School Gig Harbor High School Tides 37 60 97
6 Bainbridge High School Bainbridge High School Spartans 2 32 66 98
7 Olympia High School Olympia High School Bears 2 61 43 104
8 Bellarmine Preparatory School Bellarmine Preparatory School Lions 80 40 120
9 Bainbridge High School Bainbridge High School Spartans 3 62 65 127
10 Tumwater High School Tumwater High School Tumwater 80 65 145
11 Charles Wright Academy Charles Wright Academy Tarriers 87 70 157
12 North Thurston High School North Thurston High School Rams 69 90 159
13 Central Kitsap High School Central Kitsap High School Cougars 2 89 85 174
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
Olympia High School Olympia High School Bears 1 2 1 2 4 1 2 1 5 18 Owen Timms '19
Evan Krug '19
Bainbridge High School Bainbridge High School Spartans 2 1 2 7 5 5 5 6 1 32 Dane Petrakis '21
Jack Sobeck '19
Capital High School Capital High School Capital Varsity 7 6 8 1 4 3 2 3 34 Annie Buelt '20
Caroline Hurley '20
Gig Harbor High School Gig Harbor High School Tides 4 5 10 3 2 1 5 7 37 Axel Stordahl '20
Central Kitsap High School Central Kitsap High School Cougars 1 5 7 1 2 6 6 7 4 38 Niko Twilla '18
Becca Sharpe '18
Bainbridge High School Bainbridge High School Spartans 1 3 4 3 9 7 4 3 8 41 Arianna Fiore '21
Arianna Fiore '21
Olympia High School Olympia High School Bears 2 11 10 5 6 11 8 4 6 61 No Show [1-8]
Isabelle Stokesberry Miles-Paulson '18 [1-2, 5-6]
Jasper Navarro Hummel '22 [3-4, 7-8]
Bainbridge High School Bainbridge High School Spartans 3 8 3 6 10 13 12 8 2 62 Zach Cooper '20 [1-4, 7-8]
Chase Van Derrick '21 [5-6]
Chase Van Derrick '21 [1-4, 7-8]
Zach Cooper '20 [5-6]
North Thurston High School North Thurston High School Rams 6 13 9 11 3 7 10 10 69 Sam Bonauto '21
Joey Koval '20
Bellarmine Preparatory School Bellarmine Preparatory School Lions 9 9 12 7 12 13 9 9 80 Leo Bessler '22
Taggart Messersmith '22
Tumwater High School Tumwater High School Tumwater 12 11 4 8 10 11 11 13 80 Macy Bergford '18
Lindsey Graham '18
Charles Wright Academy Charles Wright Academy Tarriers 10 8 13 13 9 10 13 11 87 Piper Coyner '18
Jaden Ritscher '22
Central Kitsap High School Central Kitsap High School Cougars 2 13 12 11 12 8 9 12 12 89 Everett Thompson '19 [1-8]
Summer Sanders '19 [1-6]
Kyra Bowlby '19 [7-8]
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
Bainbridge High School Bainbridge High School Spartans 1 2 5 1 3 2 2 1 2 18 Max Doane '20
Lindsay Campbell '20
Olympia High School Olympia High School Bears 1 1 1 2 4 4 3 2 8 25 Max Miller '18
Hatcher Cox '21
Bellarmine Preparatory School Bellarmine Preparatory School Lions 3 9 6 2 3 8 5 4 40 Thomas Pentimonti '20
Emily Smith '21
Olympia High School Olympia High School Bears 2 11 4 5 5 10 4 3 1 43 Kevin Hicks '19
Ellie Davis '21
Central Kitsap High School Central Kitsap High School Cougars 1 4 10 7 7 9 1 6 7 51 Tyler Nolasco '19
Travis Bouck '20
Capital High School Capital High School Capital Varsity 5 3 10 8 11 5 4 6 52 Joy Brennan '20 [1-8]
Joe Wiley '21 [1-2, 5-6]
Ann Li '20 [3-4, 7-8]
Gig Harbor High School Gig Harbor High School Tides 7 2 DSQ 1 7 6 11 12 60 Ryalls Peter '19
Carlos Rivas '22
Tumwater High School Tumwater High School Tumwater 9 7 11 10 1 12 10 5 65 Ella Hubbard '22
No Show
Bainbridge High School Bainbridge High School Spartans 3 10 8 3 12 6 7 9 10 65 Clayton Marsh '20
Camden Lee '19
Bainbridge High School Bainbridge High School Spartans 2 12 6 4 9 12 13 7 3 66 Parker Hutchinson '20
Gus Beer '19
Charles Wright Academy Charles Wright Academy Tarriers 6 DSQ 8 6 8 11 8 9 70 Hayden Flaskerud '20
Ben Brink '22
Central Kitsap High School Central Kitsap High School Cougars 2 8 12 12 13 5 9 13 13 85 Andre Alvarado '20
Lilyan Coleman '21
North Thurston High School North Thurston High School Rams 13 11 9 11 13 10 12 11 90 No Show
Fiona Murphy '21
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.100+0.10
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2017 (4 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A
Bainbridge High SchoolBainbridge High School Spartans 1828284848686124124
Bainbridge High SchoolBainbridge High School Spartans 2838385858787125125
Bainbridge High SchoolBainbridge High School Spartans 384848686124124126126
Bellarmine Preparatory SchoolBellarmine Preparatory School Lions85858787125125127127
Capital High SchoolCapital High School Capital Varsity8686124124126126110110
Central Kitsap High SchoolCentral Kitsap High School Cougars 18787125125127127111111
Central Kitsap High SchoolCentral Kitsap High School Cougars 2124124126126110110113113
Charles Wright AcademyCharles Wright Academy Tarriers1251251271271111118282
Gig Harbor High SchoolGig Harbor High School Tides1261261101101131138383
North Thurston High SchoolNorth Thurston High School Rams12712711111182828484
Olympia High SchoolOlympia High School Bears 111011011311383838585
Olympia High SchoolOlympia High School Bears 2111111828284848686
Tumwater High SchoolTumwater High School Tumwater113113838385858787

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B
Bainbridge High SchoolBainbridge High School Spartans 1838385858787125125
Bainbridge High SchoolBainbridge High School Spartans 284848686124124126126
Bainbridge High SchoolBainbridge High School Spartans 385858787125125127127
Bellarmine Preparatory SchoolBellarmine Preparatory School Lions8686124124126126110110
Capital High SchoolCapital High School Capital Varsity8787125125127127111111
Central Kitsap High SchoolCentral Kitsap High School Cougars 1124124126126110110113113
Central Kitsap High SchoolCentral Kitsap High School Cougars 21251251271271111118282
Charles Wright AcademyCharles Wright Academy Tarriers1261261101101131138383
Gig Harbor High SchoolGig Harbor High School Tides12712711111182828484
North Thurston High SchoolNorth Thurston High School Rams11011011311383838585
Olympia High SchoolOlympia High School Bears 1111111828284848686
Olympia High SchoolOlympia High School Bears 2113113838385858787
Tumwater High SchoolTumwater High School Tumwater828284848686124124
School / Team SkipperCrew
Bainbridge High School Bainbridge High School Arianna Fiore '21 Arianna Fiore '21
Spartans 1 Max Doane '20 Lindsay Campbell '20
Bainbridge High School Bainbridge High School Dane Petrakis '21 Jack Sobeck '19
Spartans 2 Parker Hutchinson '20 Gus Beer '19
Bainbridge High School Bainbridge High School Zach Cooper '20 [1-4, 7-8]
Chase Van Derrick '21 [5-6]		 Chase Van Derrick '21 [1-4, 7-8]
Zach Cooper '20 [5-6]
Spartans 3 Clayton Marsh '20 Camden Lee '19
Bellarmine Preparatory School Bellarmine Preparatory School Leo Bessler '22 Taggart Messersmith '22
Lions Thomas Pentimonti '20 Emily Smith '21
Capital High School Capital High School Annie Buelt '20 Caroline Hurley '20
Capital Varsity Joy Brennan '20 [1-8] Joe Wiley '21 [1-2, 5-6]
Ann Li '20 [3-4, 7-8]
Central Kitsap High School Central Kitsap High School Niko Twilla '18 Becca Sharpe '18
Cougars 1 Tyler Nolasco '19 Travis Bouck '20
Central Kitsap High School Central Kitsap High School Everett Thompson '19 [1-8] Summer Sanders '19 [1-6]
Kyra Bowlby '19 [7-8]
Cougars 2 Andre Alvarado '20 Lilyan Coleman '21
Charles Wright Academy Charles Wright Academy Piper Coyner '18 Jaden Ritscher '22
Tarriers Hayden Flaskerud '20 Ben Brink '22
Gig Harbor High School Gig Harbor High School Axel Stordahl '20
Tides Ryalls Peter '19 Carlos Rivas '22
North Thurston High School North Thurston High School Sam Bonauto '21 Joey Koval '20
Rams No Show Fiona Murphy '21
Olympia High School Olympia High School Owen Timms '19 Evan Krug '19
Bears 1 Max Miller '18 Hatcher Cox '21
Olympia High School Olympia High School No Show [1-8] Isabelle Stokesberry Miles-Paulson '18 [1-2, 5-6]
Jasper Navarro Hummel '22 [3-4, 7-8]
Bears 2 Kevin Hicks '19 Ellie Davis '21
Tumwater High School Tumwater High School Macy Bergford '18 Lindsey Graham '18
Tumwater Ella Hubbard '22 No Show

Conditions — 09/30/2017 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Light drizzle
Humidity 75%  ·  Pressure 1017.7 hPa

Temperature

58°F
↑ 63°F   ↓ 54°F
Feels like 57°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
2.9 kn
avg  ·  max 8.3 kn
Gusts to 23.7 kn
From NNW (344°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover55% Sunshine10.4 hrs Humidity75% Pressure1017.7 hPa Rain0.04 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NE 6 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Central Kitsap: a favourites’ day (+0.08)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.07 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.15
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.21 ± 0.15)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.08 means a rating gap counts about 7% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Central Kitsap by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 3 labelled days at Central Kitsap, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →