| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Gig Harbor High School | Tides | 4–0 |
| 2 |  |
Olympia High School | Bears | 3–1 |
| 3 |  |
Bellarmine Preparatory School | Lions | 2–2 |
| 4 |  |
Capital High School | Cougars | 1–3 |
| 5 |  |
Black Hills | Black Hills | 0–4 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 9,491 team race matches sailed before 2023-04-22, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 10 of 10 matches (100%) with a log-loss of 0.425 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +1.54 ± 0.94: an orderly event, more orderly than 99% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gig Harbor High School Tides | 1 | 3.11 school −0.17 | Finn Deprez / Annalise Landy 1.15 Nico Konyk / Kelsea Cowart 0.95 Corinne Harrison / Agatha Pape 1.08 | 75% | 4–0 (100%) | +1.0 |
| 2 | Olympia High School Bears | 2 | 2.23 home +0.14 | Esther Ireland / Cate Griffith Nolan O'Connell / Ryan Solie Alijah Manzanares / No Show 0.49 | 58% | 3–1 (75%) | +0.7 |
| 3 | Bellarmine Preparatory School Lions | 4 | 1.48 | Oona Lacey / Genevieve Davis Hannah Welch / Nate Cutting 0.75 2–1 William Embick / Luke Zeigler 0–2 William Embick / Beo Satterlee 2–0 Hannah Welch / Beo Satterlee 0.67 0–1 | 41% | 2–2 (50%) | +0.4 |
| 4 | Capital High School Cougars | 3 | 1.56 school −0.13 | Fiona Tang / Ramona Hanson Simone Reck / Brolin Boelts Maddox Gorrum / Caleigh Mingay | 42% | 1–3 (25%) | −0.7 |
| 5 | Black Hills Black Hills | 5 | 1.19 | Kaden Kim / Jude Withey Cameron Leclair / Graham Kirkbride Tru Jackson / Oscar Xu 0–2 Tru Jackson / Skylar Vasko 0–2 | 34% | 0–4 (0%) | −1.4 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gig Harbor High School | 3.11 | 6.11 | 4–0 | 3.0 | ≥+3.00 | 1.5 | 31% |
| 2 | Olympia High School | 2.23 | 3.32 | 3–1 | 2.3 | +1.09 | 0.4 | 43% |
| 3 | Bellarmine Preparatory School | 1.48 | 1.97 | 2–2 | 1.7 | +0.49 | 0.1 | 55% |
| 4 | Capital High School | 1.56 | 0.50 | 1–3 | 1.7 | −1.06 | 0.4 | 90% |
| 5 | Black Hills | 1.19 | -1.81 | 0–4 | 1.4 | ≤−3.00 | 2.2 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nolan O'Connell | Olympia High School | 0.56 | 1.65 | 3–1 | 2.3 | +1.09 | 0.4 | 43% |
| Alijah Manzanares | Olympia High School | 0.49 | 1.59 | 3–1 | 2.3 | +1.09 | 0.4 | 43% |
| Fiona Tang | Capital High School | 0.46 | -0.60 | 1–3 | 1.7 | −1.06 | 0.4 | 90% |
| Simone Reck | Capital High School | 0.46 | -0.59 | 1–3 | 1.7 | −1.06 | 0.4 | 90% |
| Tru Jackson | Black Hills | 0.46 | -2.54 | 0–4 | 1.4 | ≤−3.00 | 2.2 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Bears | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Lions | 3-4-6 |
| 2 | |
Cougars | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Black Hills | 2-3-6 |
| 3 | |
Tides | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Lions | 3-4-6 |
| 4 | |
Bears | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Black Hills | 1-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Lions | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Cougars | 3-4-6 |
| 6 | |
Tides | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bears | 3-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Lions | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Black Hills | 3-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Tides | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Cougars | 4-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Bears | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Cougars | 3-4-6 |
| 10 | |
Tides | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Black Hills | 4-5-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Gig Harbor High School | Tides | Corinne Harrison '23 Finn Deprez '25 Nico Konyk '25 |
Agatha Pape '25 Annalise Landy '27 Kelsea Cowart '25 |
|
Olympia High School | Bears | Alijah Manzanares '25 Esther Ireland '25 Nolan O'Connell '26 |
No Show Cate Griffith '27 Ryan Solie '25 |
|
Bellarmine Preparatory School | Lions | Hannah Welch '25 Oona Lacey '27 William Embick '26 |
Beo Satterlee '25 Nate Cutting '25 Genevieve Davis '26 Luke Zeigler '26 |
|
Capital High School | Cougars | Fiona Tang '25 Maddox Gorrum '25 Simone Reck '27 |
Ramona Hanson '25 Caleigh Mingay '25 Brolin Boelts '26 |
|
Black Hills | Black Hills | Cameron Leclair '27 Kaden Kim '27 Tru Jackson '27 |
Graham Kirkbride '27 Jude Withey '26 Skylar Vasko '26 Oscar Xu '25 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.00 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
