Olympia High School '26
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.52 (fleet 0.82) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 8–4 (67%) as crew 3–3 (50%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2023 | 2 | 8–4 | 3–3 |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (18 matches) the record is 11–7 against 10.1 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+0.9). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 0 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-05-20 | NWISA Open Team Race Champs | skipper | 0.73 | 0.94 | 5–3 | 4.7 | +0.20 | 0.0 | 58% |
| 2023-05-20 | NWISA Open Team Race Champs | crew | 0.73 | 0.66 | 3–3 | 3.1 | −0.08 | 0.0 | 69% |
| 2023-04-22 | Olympia Silver Team Race Seeding Regatta | skipper | 0.56 | 1.65 | 3–1 | 2.3 | +1.09 | 0.4 | 43% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| RR#3 Silver | Skipper | B | 7 | 11.6 | 0.36 |
| Olympia Silver Team Race Seeding Regatta | Skipper | TR | 4 | 75% | — |
| NWISA Open Team Race Champs | Skipper | TR | 14 | 57% | — |
| Fall 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Pontiac Bay Regional Regatta (South Regional) | Skipper | B | 8 | 16.9 | -0.32 |
| Fall Champs Silver | Skipper | B | 3 | 9.3 | -0.15 |
| Cascadia Cup Silver High School | Skipper | B | 2 | 12.5 | 0.17 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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