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Fall Champs Silver

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Cardinals 1 35 22 57
2 Bothell High School Bothell High School Bothell 39 18 57
3 Port Townsend High School Port Townsend High School Redhawks 2 27 34 61
4 Bainbridge High School Bainbridge High School Spartans 1 12 55 67
5 Bainbridge High School Bainbridge High School Spartans 2 27 56 83
6 Olympia High School Olympia High School Bears 1 64 43 107
7 Orcas High School Orcas High School Vikings 1 70 50 120
8 Roosevelt High School Roosevelt High School Rough Riders 1 67 56 123
9 Bellarmine Preparatory School Bellarmine Preparatory School Lions 75 48 123
10 Kingston High School Kingston High School Kraken 49 96 145
11 Orcas High School Orcas High School Vikings 2 70 79 149
12 Bainbridge High School Bainbridge High School Spartans 3 60 95 155
13 Bellingham High School Bellingham High School Bayhawks 114 41 155
14 Roosevelt High School Roosevelt High School Rough Riders 2 60 97 157
15 Lincoln High School - Seattle WA Lincoln High School - Seattle WA Lincoln - Seattle W 68 90 158
16 Bainbridge High School Bainbridge High School Spartans 4 61 99 160
17 Port Townsend High School Port Townsend High School Redhawks 1 76 88 164
18 Black Hills Black Hills Black Hills 73 91 164
19 Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Cardinals 2 82 85 167
20 Olympia High School Olympia High School Bears 2 79 98 PFD 177 PFD
21 Central Kitsap High School Central Kitsap High School Cougars 81 100 181
22 Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Cardinals 3 99 84 183
23 Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Cardinals 4 112 82 194
24 Gig Harbor High School Gig Harbor High School Tides 80 119 199
25 Sehome High School Sehome High School Mariners 103 118 221
26 Anacortes High School Anacortes High School Seahawks 107 114 221
27 Oak Harbor High School Oak Harbor High School /Anacortes 126 114 240
28 Stadium High School Stadium High School Tigers 134 111 245
29 Squalicum High School Squalicum High School Storm 120 139 259
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
Bainbridge High School Bainbridge High School Spartans 1 1 3 5 1 2 12 Nolan Wiggins '23 [1-5]
Talia Esarey '24 [1-3]
Ava Bergan '23 [4-5]
Port Townsend High School Port Townsend High School Redhawks 2 3 9 1 3 11 27 Zia Magill '24
Sophie Kunka '23
Bainbridge High School Bainbridge High School Spartans 2 5 2 13 4 3 27 Adam Turloff '24 [1-2, 4-5]
Luke Hattrup '24 [3]
Cyrus Yan '26 [1-2]
Adam Turloff '24 [3]
Luke Hattrup '24 [4-5]
Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Cardinals 1 10 7 4 10 4 35 Teddy Gao '23
Charlotte Yesser '23
Bothell High School Bothell High School Bothell 17 4 2 11 5 39 Ellie Blakemore '23
William Layton '25
Kingston High School Kingston High School Kraken 16 10 8 6 9 49 Shelby Chandler '25 [1-2, 5]
Victor Taylor '23 [3-4]
Lena Bowen '23 [1-2, 5]
Acadia Tweed-Kent '25 [3-4]
Roosevelt High School Roosevelt High School Rough Riders 2 6 8 17 16 13 60 Roan Olson '25
Solomon Lucero '25
Bainbridge High School Bainbridge High School Spartans 3 18 5 12 8 17 60 Jaya Wirth '23 [1-5]
Gretchen Fiscus '26 [1-3]
Nick Heinzelman '24 [4-5]
Bainbridge High School Bainbridge High School Spartans 4 2 20 9 20 10 61 Tabor Houghtaling '27 [1-5]
Holden Goodham '26 [1-3]
Christopher Cuellar-Carpenter '25 [4-5]
Olympia High School Olympia High School Bears 1 BKD 17 19 14 1 64 Liam Power '25 [1-5]
Kaden Kim '27 [1-2, 5]
Graham Kirkbride '27 [3-4]
Roosevelt High School Roosevelt High School Rough Riders 1 7 14 16 18 12 67 Kirin Dhaka '23
Renee Lehto '25
Lincoln High School - Seattle WA Lincoln High School - Seattle WA Lincoln - Seattle W 12 6 11 23 16 68 Isadora Ford '27
Henry Thomas '27
Orcas High School Orcas High School Vikings 1 14 16 18 15 7 70 Dagny Kruger '25
Lola Walker '26
Orcas High School Orcas High School Vikings 2 20 11 3 28 8 70 Moose Kinsey '24
No Show
Black Hills Black Hills Black Hills 26 19 15 7 6 73 Fiona Tang '25 [1-5]
Ramona Hanson '25 [1-4]
Caleigh Mingay '25 [5]
Bellarmine Preparatory School Bellarmine Preparatory School Lions DNF 1 6 19 19 75 Colin Cooper '27
Skylar Vasko '26
Port Townsend High School Port Townsend High School Redhawks 1 15 27 7 12 15 76 Ocean Smith '24
Gabriel Evans '24
Olympia High School Olympia High School Bears 2 19 DNS 14 2 14 79 Liam Taylor '25
Cameron Leclair '27
Gig Harbor High School Gig Harbor High School Tides 4 15 22 17 22 80 Oona Lacey '27
Tru Jackson '27
Central Kitsap High School Central Kitsap High School Cougars 9 13 23 13 23 81 Keller Matthews '26 [1-5]
Victor Gehring '26 [1-2]
Coyle Jones '26 [3-5]
Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Cardinals 2 11 12 24 5 DSQ 82 Zack Riccelli '23
Andrew Dolle '25
Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Cardinals 3 8 DNF 10 24 27 99 Jocelyn Emery '26
Charlotte Yesser '23
Sehome High School Sehome High School Mariners 24 18 20 21 20 103 Ajax Robinson '23
Alejandro Ponce '23
Anacortes High School Anacortes High School Seahawks DNF 22 25 9 21 107 Aeden Peterson '25
Cynthia Zimmerman '26
Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Cardinals 4 13 26 21 27 25 112 Teddy Gao '23
Andrew Dolle '25
Bellingham High School Bellingham High School Bayhawks 23 25 26 22 18 114 Alex Dick '23
Avery O'Donnell '26
Squalicum High School Squalicum High School Storm 22 21 28 25 24 120 Atticus Andress '26
August Montiel '25
Oak Harbor High School Oak Harbor High School /Anacortes 21 24 29 26 26 126 Dominic Schinning '25
Hannah Mcreynolds '24
Stadium High School Stadium High School Tigers 25 23 27 29 DNF 134 Chloe Hedge-Pollock '25
Agatha Pape '26
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
Bothell High School Bothell High School Bothell 12 3 1 1 1 18 Ian Blakemore '25
Calvin Hou '25
Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Cardinals 1 4 5 7 4 2 22 Andrew Dolle '25
Feliz (Miguel) Gilpin-Moreno '23
Port Townsend High School Port Townsend High School Redhawks 2 7 4 4 9 10 34 Noah Holly '24
Nadia Fisch '24
Bellingham High School Bellingham High School Bayhawks 5 13 10 8 5 41 Bryce Lutz '23
Clementine Hong '26
Olympia High School Olympia High School Bears 1 14 17 6 2 4 43 Levi Morse '24 [1-5]
North Berebitsky '26 [1-2, 5]
Brolin Boelts '26 [3-4]
Bellarmine Preparatory School Bellarmine Preparatory School Lions 21 12 9 3 3 48 Genie Greenfield '26 [1-2]
Hannah Welch '25 [3-5]
Genevieve Davis '26 [1-2]
Genie Greenfield '26 [3-4]
Annalise Landy '27 [5]
Orcas High School Orcas High School Vikings 1 6 10 12 13 9 50 Emmett Beadnall '27 [1-5]
Theo Johnson '27 [1-4]
Orlando Ljubic '27 [5]
Bainbridge High School Bainbridge High School Spartans 1 2 1 DNS 10 12 55 Alexander Turloff '24 [1-5]
Kai Dikman '26 [1-2]
Zephyr Kochenash '23 [3-5]
Bainbridge High School Bainbridge High School Spartans 2 8 15 5 12 16 56 Beto Torres '24 [1-5]
Fin Vitale '25 [1-2]
Jeffrey Kriegh '23 [3-5]
Roosevelt High School Roosevelt High School Rough Riders 1 9 7 3 DNF 7 56 Hannah Shorr '26
Alan Brennan '25
Orcas High School Orcas High School Vikings 2 11 19 DNS 6 13 79 Soren '26 [1-5]
Hans Sprenger '26 [1-2]
Gracyn Chamberlin '25 [3-5]
Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Cardinals 4 18 14 15 11 24 82 Feliz (Miguel) Gilpin-Moreno '23
Jocelyn Emery '26
Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Cardinals 3 1 11 17 DNF 25 84 Teddy Gao '23
Andrew Dolle '25
Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Cardinals 2 16 2 DNS 18 19 85 Charlotte Yesser '23
Feliz (Miguel) Gilpin-Moreno '23
Port Townsend High School Port Townsend High School Redhawks 1 25 21 2 14 26 88 Luca Campbell '24
Fiona Skidmore '24
Lincoln High School - Seattle WA Lincoln High School - Seattle WA Lincoln - Seattle W 17 18 DNS 7 18 90 Theodore Dodd '27
Antonio Rioseco '23
Black Hills Black Hills Black Hills 24 20 11 DNS 6 91 Jonas Versaw '26 [1-2]
Alex Weed '26 [3-5]
Alex Weed '26 [1-2]
Fiona Tang '25 [3-5]
Bainbridge High School Bainbridge High School Spartans 3 13 8 DNS DNS 14 95 Joseph Tappen '25 [1-5]
Carson Domansky '26 [1-2]
Andrea Berteletti '25 [3, 5]
Fin Vitale '25 [4]
Kingston High School Kingston High School Kraken 15 23 DNS 17 11 96 Jacob Misuda '23 [1-4]
Dylan Sprague '26 [5]
Dylan Sprague '26 [1-4]
Jacob Misuda '23 [5]
Roosevelt High School Roosevelt High School Rough Riders 2 23 6 DNS DNS 8 97 Liam Boettcher '25
Leo Morin '26
Olympia High School Olympia High School Bears 2 10 DNS 13 5 DNS 98 PFD Nolan O'Connell '26
Cate Griffith '27
Bainbridge High School Bainbridge High School Spartans 4 DNF 9 DNS 15 15 99 Suraj Siddaiah '26 [1-5]
Gretchen Von Ibsch '26 [1-2]
Payton Mcphail '24 [3-5]
Central Kitsap High School Central Kitsap High School Cougars 3 DNS 16 DNF 21 100 Elijah Dekker '26 [1-4]
Amber Faragalli '26 [5]
Amber Faragalli '26 [1-2]
Ian Anthony '27 [3-4]
Elijah Dekker '26 [5]
Stadium High School Stadium High School Tigers DNF DNS 14 20 17 111 No Show
No Show
Anacortes High School Anacortes High School Seahawks 19 24 DNS 19 22 114 Cameron Furin '25 [1-5]
Fio Nicosai-Joachim '26 [1-2, 5]
Noah Ketner '25 [3-4]
Oak Harbor High School Oak Harbor High School /Anacortes 26 22 8 DNS 28 114 Noah Ellis '26 [1-2]
Grant Nienhuis '26 [3-5]
Grant Nienhuis '26 [1-2]
Noah Ellis '26 [3-5]
Sehome High School Sehome High School Mariners 22 DNS DNS 16 20 118 Ash Elliott '24
Axel Haley '25
Gig Harbor High School Gig Harbor High School Tides 20 16 DSQ DNS 23 119 Annalise Landy '27 [1-4]
Genie Greenfield '26 [5]
Elly Estep '23 [1-4]
Squalicum High School Squalicum High School Storm 27 25 DNS DNS 27 139 Byron Andress '26
Cole Sokolik '22
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.130+0.13
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2022 (1 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A
Anacortes High SchoolAnacortes High School Seahawks2222272726
Bainbridge High SchoolBainbridge High School Spartans 12525282830
Bainbridge High SchoolBainbridge High School Spartans 22727262652
Bainbridge High SchoolBainbridge High School Spartans 32828303047
Bainbridge High SchoolBainbridge High School Spartans 42626525218
Bellarmine Preparatory SchoolBellarmine Preparatory School Lions3030474749
Bellingham High SchoolBellingham High School Bayhawks52521818111
Black HillsBlack Hills Black Hills47474949112
Bothell High SchoolBothell High School Bothell1818111111114
Central Kitsap High SchoolCentral Kitsap High School Cougars494911211235
Gig Harbor High SchoolGig Harbor High School Tides11111111411436
Kingston High SchoolKingston High School Kraken112112353544
Lincoln High School - Portland, ORLincoln High School - Portland, OR Cardinals 1114114363645
Lincoln High School - Portland, ORLincoln High School - Portland, OR Cardinals 23535444446
Lincoln High School - Portland, ORLincoln High School - Portland, OR Cardinals 33636454582
Lincoln High School - Portland, ORLincoln High School - Portland, OR Cardinals 44444464683
Lincoln High School - Seattle WALincoln High School - Seattle WA Lincoln - Seattle W4545828284
Oak Harbor High SchoolOak Harbor High School /Anacortes464683831
Olympia High SchoolOlympia High School Bears 1828284842
Olympia High SchoolOlympia High School Bears 28383113
Orcas High SchoolOrcas High School Vikings 18484224
Orcas High SchoolOrcas High School Vikings 21133127
Port Townsend High SchoolPort Townsend High School Redhawks 1224431
Port Townsend High SchoolPort Townsend High School Redhawks 23312712754
Roosevelt High SchoolRoosevelt High School Rough Riders 144313151
Roosevelt High SchoolRoosevelt High School Rough Riders 2127127545422
Sehome High SchoolSehome High School Mariners126126515125
Squalicum High SchoolSqualicum High School Storm5454222227
Stadium High SchoolStadium High School Tigers5151252528

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B
Anacortes High SchoolAnacortes High School Seahawks2525282830
Bainbridge High SchoolBainbridge High School Spartans 12727262652
Bainbridge High SchoolBainbridge High School Spartans 22828303047
Bainbridge High SchoolBainbridge High School Spartans 32626525218
Bainbridge High SchoolBainbridge High School Spartans 43030474749
Bellarmine Preparatory SchoolBellarmine Preparatory School Lions52521818111
Bellingham High SchoolBellingham High School Bayhawks47474949112
Black HillsBlack Hills Black Hills1818111111114
Bothell High SchoolBothell High School Bothell494911211235
Central Kitsap High SchoolCentral Kitsap High School Cougars11111111411436
Gig Harbor High SchoolGig Harbor High School Tides112112353544
Kingston High SchoolKingston High School Kraken114114363645
Lincoln High School - Portland, ORLincoln High School - Portland, OR Cardinals 13535444446
Lincoln High School - Portland, ORLincoln High School - Portland, OR Cardinals 23636454582
Lincoln High School - Portland, ORLincoln High School - Portland, OR Cardinals 34444464683
Lincoln High School - Portland, ORLincoln High School - Portland, OR Cardinals 44545828284
Lincoln High School - Seattle WALincoln High School - Seattle WA Lincoln - Seattle W464683831
Oak Harbor High SchoolOak Harbor High School /Anacortes828284842
Olympia High SchoolOlympia High School Bears 18383113
Olympia High SchoolOlympia High School Bears 28484224
Orcas High SchoolOrcas High School Vikings 11133127
Orcas High SchoolOrcas High School Vikings 2224431
Port Townsend High SchoolPort Townsend High School Redhawks 13312712754
Port Townsend High SchoolPort Townsend High School Redhawks 244313151
Roosevelt High SchoolRoosevelt High School Rough Riders 1127127545422
Roosevelt High SchoolRoosevelt High School Rough Riders 2126126515125
Sehome High SchoolSehome High School Mariners5454222227
Squalicum High SchoolSqualicum High School Storm5151252528
Stadium High SchoolStadium High School Tigers2222272726
School / Team SkipperCrew
Anacortes High School Anacortes High School Aeden Peterson '25 Cynthia Zimmerman '26
Seahawks Cameron Furin '25 [1-5] Fio Nicosai-Joachim '26 [1-2, 5]
Noah Ketner '25 [3-4]
Bainbridge High School Bainbridge High School Nolan Wiggins '23 [1-5] Talia Esarey '24 [1-3]
Ava Bergan '23 [4-5]
Spartans 1 Alexander Turloff '24 [1-5] Kai Dikman '26 [1-2]
Zephyr Kochenash '23 [3-5]
Bainbridge High School Bainbridge High School Adam Turloff '24 [1-2, 4-5]
Luke Hattrup '24 [3]		 Cyrus Yan '26 [1-2]
Adam Turloff '24 [3]
Luke Hattrup '24 [4-5]
Spartans 2 Beto Torres '24 [1-5] Fin Vitale '25 [1-2]
Jeffrey Kriegh '23 [3-5]
Bainbridge High School Bainbridge High School Jaya Wirth '23 [1-5] Gretchen Fiscus '26 [1-3]
Nick Heinzelman '24 [4-5]
Spartans 3 Joseph Tappen '25 [1-5] Carson Domansky '26 [1-2]
Andrea Berteletti '25 [3, 5]
Fin Vitale '25 [4]
Bainbridge High School Bainbridge High School Tabor Houghtaling '27 [1-5] Holden Goodham '26 [1-3]
Christopher Cuellar-Carpenter '25 [4-5]
Spartans 4 Suraj Siddaiah '26 [1-5] Gretchen Von Ibsch '26 [1-2]
Payton Mcphail '24 [3-5]
Bellarmine Preparatory School Bellarmine Preparatory School Colin Cooper '27 Skylar Vasko '26
Lions Genie Greenfield '26 [1-2]
Hannah Welch '25 [3-5]		 Genevieve Davis '26 [1-2]
Genie Greenfield '26 [3-4]
Annalise Landy '27 [5]
Bellingham High School Bellingham High School Alex Dick '23 Avery O'Donnell '26
Bayhawks Bryce Lutz '23 Clementine Hong '26
Black Hills Black Hills Fiona Tang '25 [1-5] Ramona Hanson '25 [1-4]
Caleigh Mingay '25 [5]
Black Hills Jonas Versaw '26 [1-2]
Alex Weed '26 [3-5]		 Alex Weed '26 [1-2]
Fiona Tang '25 [3-5]
Bothell High School Bothell High School Ellie Blakemore '23 William Layton '25
Bothell Ian Blakemore '25 Calvin Hou '25
Central Kitsap High School Central Kitsap High School Keller Matthews '26 [1-5] Victor Gehring '26 [1-2]
Coyle Jones '26 [3-5]
Cougars Elijah Dekker '26 [1-4]
Amber Faragalli '26 [5]		 Amber Faragalli '26 [1-2]
Ian Anthony '27 [3-4]
Elijah Dekker '26 [5]
Gig Harbor High School Gig Harbor High School Oona Lacey '27 Tru Jackson '27
Tides Annalise Landy '27 [1-4]
Genie Greenfield '26 [5]		 Elly Estep '23 [1-4]
Kingston High School Kingston High School Shelby Chandler '25 [1-2, 5]
Victor Taylor '23 [3-4]		 Lena Bowen '23 [1-2, 5]
Acadia Tweed-Kent '25 [3-4]
Kraken Jacob Misuda '23 [1-4]
Dylan Sprague '26 [5]		 Dylan Sprague '26 [1-4]
Jacob Misuda '23 [5]
Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Teddy Gao '23 Charlotte Yesser '23
Cardinals 1 Andrew Dolle '25 Feliz (Miguel) Gilpin-Moreno '23
Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Zack Riccelli '23 Andrew Dolle '25
Cardinals 2 Charlotte Yesser '23 Feliz (Miguel) Gilpin-Moreno '23
Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Jocelyn Emery '26 Charlotte Yesser '23
Cardinals 3 Teddy Gao '23 Andrew Dolle '25
Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Teddy Gao '23 Andrew Dolle '25
Cardinals 4 Feliz (Miguel) Gilpin-Moreno '23 Jocelyn Emery '26
Lincoln High School - Seattle WA Lincoln High School - Seattle WA Isadora Ford '27 Henry Thomas '27
Lincoln - Seattle W Theodore Dodd '27 Antonio Rioseco '23
Oak Harbor High School Oak Harbor High School Dominic Schinning '25 Hannah Mcreynolds '24
/Anacortes Noah Ellis '26 [1-2]
Grant Nienhuis '26 [3-5]		 Grant Nienhuis '26 [1-2]
Noah Ellis '26 [3-5]
Olympia High School Olympia High School Liam Power '25 [1-5] Kaden Kim '27 [1-2, 5]
Graham Kirkbride '27 [3-4]
Bears 1 Levi Morse '24 [1-5] North Berebitsky '26 [1-2, 5]
Brolin Boelts '26 [3-4]
Olympia High School Olympia High School Liam Taylor '25 Cameron Leclair '27
Bears 2 Nolan O'Connell '26 Cate Griffith '27
Orcas High School Orcas High School Dagny Kruger '25 Lola Walker '26
Vikings 1 Emmett Beadnall '27 [1-5] Theo Johnson '27 [1-4]
Orlando Ljubic '27 [5]
Orcas High School Orcas High School Moose Kinsey '24 No Show
Vikings 2 Soren '26 [1-5] Hans Sprenger '26 [1-2]
Gracyn Chamberlin '25 [3-5]
Port Townsend High School Port Townsend High School Ocean Smith '24 Gabriel Evans '24
Redhawks 1 Luca Campbell '24 Fiona Skidmore '24
Port Townsend High School Port Townsend High School Zia Magill '24 Sophie Kunka '23
Redhawks 2 Noah Holly '24 Nadia Fisch '24
Roosevelt High School Roosevelt High School Kirin Dhaka '23 Renee Lehto '25
Rough Riders 1 Hannah Shorr '26 Alan Brennan '25
Roosevelt High School Roosevelt High School Roan Olson '25 Solomon Lucero '25
Rough Riders 2 Liam Boettcher '25 Leo Morin '26
Sehome High School Sehome High School Ajax Robinson '23 Alejandro Ponce '23
Mariners Ash Elliott '24 Axel Haley '25
Squalicum High School Squalicum High School Atticus Andress '26 August Montiel '25
Storm Byron Andress '26 Cole Sokolik '22
Stadium High School Stadium High School Chloe Hedge-Pollock '25 Agatha Pape '26
Tigers No Show No Show

Conditions — 11/05/2022 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Light drizzle
Humidity 81%  ·  Pressure 1016.1 hPa

Temperature

47°F
↑ 50°F   ↓ 44°F
Feels like 41°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
7.3 kn
avg  ·  max 9.4 kn
Gusts to 21.4 kn
From WSW (237°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover76% Sunshine4.7 hrs Humidity81% Pressure1016.1 hPa Rain0.12 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: W 11 kn · S 10 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Lincoln OR: a typical day (+0.01)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment +0.07 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.08
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.05 ± 0.11)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Lincoln OR by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (no labelled days at Lincoln OR: the all-venue pattern is shown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →