Gig Harbor High School '26
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.03 (fleet 0.05) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 4–16 (20%) as crew 1–10 (9%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2024 | 2 | 4–16 | — |
| Spring 2023 | 1 | — | 1–10 |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (31 matches) the record is 5–26 against 9.1 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−4.1). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 8 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-27 | Open Team Race Champs | skipper | 0.31 | -1.88 | 1–14 | 3.9 | −2.19 | 2.9 | 99% |
| 2024-04-20 | Open Team Race Qualifier | skipper | 0.08 | 2.29 | 3–2 | 1.4 | +2.21 | 2.0 | 11% |
| 2023-05-20 | NWISA Open Team Race Champs | crew | 0.05 | -2.17 | 1–10 | 3.8 | −2.22 | 2.9 | 99% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| Open Team Race Qualifier | Skipper | TR | 6 | 50% | — |
| Open Team Race Champs | Skipper | TR | 19 | 5% | — |
| Spring 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| NWISA Open Team Race Champs | Crew | TR | 12 | 8% | — |
| Fall 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Fall Champs Silver | Skipper | B | 1 | 23.0 | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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