NWISA Open Team Race Champs

HostKitsap Sailing Foundation
Date05/20/2023
TypeDistrict Tournament
BoatCFJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Bainbridge High School	Spartans	11–3
2	Roosevelt High School	Rough Riders	10–4
3	Ballard High School	Beavers	9–5
4	Bellarmine Preparatory School	Lions	8–6
5	Olympia High School	Bears	8–6
6	Port Townsend High School	Redhawks	7–7
7	Anacortes High School	Seahawks	5–7
8	Oak Harbor High School	Wildcats	4–8
9	Central Kitsap High School	Cougars	3–9
10	Gig Harbor High School	Tides	1–11

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 10,072 team race matches sailed before 2023-05-20, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 48 of 66 matches (73%) with a log-loss of 0.591 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness +0.02 ± 0.37: a typical event, more orderly than 41% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Bainbridge High School Spartans	7	2.10	Tabor Houghtaling / Suraj Siddaiah 8–3 Joseph Tappen / Stella Saleh 0.89 9–1 Cascade Kaseler / Maura Bascom 5–2 Beto Torres / Fin Vitale 0.59 3–3 Cascade Kaseler / Fin Vitale 2–0 Alexander Turloff / Nick Heinzelman 1.65 2–0 Adam Turloff / Cascade Kaseler 1.35 1–0 Joseph Tappen / Tabor Houghtaling 0.87 1–0 Owen Burnett / Sharkey Mckay 1.40 1–0 Tabor Houghtaling / Joseph Tappen 1–0	44%	11–3 (79%)	+4.9
2	Roosevelt High School Rough Riders	2	3.03 school −0.51	Roan Olson / Calvin Hou 4–4 Noelani Li / Khalil Wilkinson 1.02 5–2 Ellie Blakemore / Liam Boettcher 1.27 3–2 Nathan Koliha / Paige Mcallister 0.53 0–3 Lucien Freemesser / Nathan Koliha 2.01 2–0 Lucien Freemesser / Khalil Wilkinson 2.02 2–0 Liam Boettcher / Paige Mcallister 0.68 2–0 Liam Boettcher / Khalil Wilkinson 0.76 2–0 Lucien Freemesser / Calvin Hou 2.00 2–0 Ellie Blakemore / Paige Mcallister 1.23 2–0 Nathan Koliha / Liam Boettcher 0.64 1–1 Lucien Freemesser / Paige Mcallister 1.93 1–0 Liam Boettcher / Nathan Koliha 0.72 1–0 Lucien Freemesser / Ellie Blakemore 2.02 1–0 Anna Cezik / Paige Mcallister 1–0 Nathan Koliha / Calvin Hou 0.60 1–0	62%	10–4 (71%)	+1.3
3	Ballard High School Beavers	6	2.29 school −0.25	Francesca Dougherty / Esther Goodell 1.20 3–4 Arden Rathopf / Simone Ford 3–4 Nathan Pease / Zev Fort 0.68 3–4 Zev Fort / Esther Goodell 6–1 Nathan Pease / Ella Reed 0.58 6–1 Arden Rathopf / Phoebe Howe 6–1	47%	9–5 (64%)	+2.4
4	Bellarmine Preparatory School Lions	3	2.85 school +0.12	Corinne Harrison / Agatha Pape 1.12 8–4 Hannah Welch / Aspen Merrill 0.77 8–2 Brent Hu / Genevieve Davis 8–2 Logan Bugenig / Aspen Merrill 0–4 Corinne Harrison / Hannah Welch 1.23 0–2 Brent Hu / Agatha Pape 0–2 Hannah Welch / Genevieve Davis 0.83 0–2	58%	8–6 (57%)	−0.2
5	Olympia High School Bears	5	2.71	Esther Ireland / Fiona Tang 1.20 5–3 Alijah Manzanares / Ryan Solie 0.52 5–3 Nolan O'Connell / Cate Griffith 0.73 5–3 Alijah Manzanares / Helena Pershall 0.43 3–3 Esther Ireland / Caleigh Mingay 1.11 3–3 Liam Taylor / Nolan O'Connell 3–3	56%	8–6 (57%)	+0.2
6	Port Townsend High School Redhawks	1	3.03 school +0.37	Lhotse Rowell / Ava Butterfield 1.05 6–5 Zia Magill / Luca Campbell 1.08 5–6 Noah Holly / Panya Cao 0.60 6–4 Ocean Smith / Hazel Windstorm 0.71 4–6	67%	7–7 (50%)	−2.4
7	Anacortes High School Seahawks	4	2.48 school +0.20	Aeden Peterson / Michael Tabor 0.54 Allison Lehmann / Colton Hong 0.87 Will Peters / Bradyn Rueb 0.76	57%	5–7 (42%)	−1.8
8	Oak Harbor High School Wildcats	10	0.99 school −0.19	Anna Servatius / Allison Bailey 0.75 3–5 Hannah Ellis / Julian Becker 3–3 Colin Byler / Julian Becker 0.99 1–4 Hannah Ellis / Noah Ellis 1–3 Noah Ellis / Callie Carlson -0.17 1–3 Grant Nienhuis / Cadence Smith -0.57 1–3 Colin Byler / Cadence Smith 0.87 2–1 Colin Byler / Grant Nienhuis 0.92 0–1 Hannah Ellis / Callie Carlson 0–1	31%	4–8 (33%)	+0.3
9	Central Kitsap High School Cougars	8	1.23	Elijah Dekker / Tanaya Justice 0.51 2–4 Keller Matthews / Robin Jenkin 0.75 2–4 Elsa Bischoff / Maya Zander -0.04 2–4 Keller Matthews / Avery Lawley 0.70 1–5 Elsa Bischoff / Logan Duthie -0.05 1–5 Elijah Dekker / Ian Anthony 0.40 1–3 Elijah Dekker / Amber Faragalli 0.46 0–2	39%	3–9 (25%)	−1.6
10	Gig Harbor High School Tides	9	1.33 school −0.08	William Embick / Annalise Landy 0.80 Tru Jackson / Skylar Vasko 1–6 Matthew Embick / Genie Greenfield 1–5 Logan Bugenig / Genie Greenfield 0–5 Tru Jackson / Matthew Embick 0–3 Oona Lacey / Tru Jackson 0.16 0–1 Logan Bugenig / Skylar Vasko 0–1 Oona Lacey / Matthew Embick 0.16 0–1	35%	1–11 (8%)	−3.2

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
1	Bainbridge High School	2.10	4.31	11–3	6.1	+2.20	5.8	1%
3	Ballard High School	2.29	3.26	9–5	6.6	+0.97	1.3	14%
2	Roosevelt High School	3.03	3.62	10–4	8.7	+0.59	0.4	32%
8	Oak Harbor High School	0.99	1.18	4–8	3.7	+0.19	0.0	53%
5	Olympia High School	2.71	2.79	8–6	7.8	+0.07	0.0	58%
4	Bellarmine Preparatory School	2.85	2.79	8–6	8.2	−0.06	0.0	65%
7	Anacortes High School	2.48	1.62	5–7	6.8	−0.86	0.9	92%
9	Central Kitsap High School	1.23	0.23	3–9	4.6	−1.00	0.9	93%
6	Port Townsend High School	3.03	2.03	7–7	9.4	−1.00	1.4	95%
10	Gig Harbor High School	1.33	-1.04	1–11	4.2	−2.37	3.5	>99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Cascade Kaseler	Bainbridge High School	0.54	2.97	7–2	3.3	+2.43	4.9	1%
Arden Rathopf	Ballard High School	0.87	1.84	9–5	6.6	+0.97	1.3	14%
Grant Nienhuis	Oak Harbor High School	-0.57	0.34	1–3	0.6	+0.91	0.2	47%
Beto Torres	Bainbridge High School	0.59	0.99	3–3	2.6	+0.39	0.1	52%
Hannah Ellis	Oak Harbor High School	0.18	0.45	4–7	3.5	+0.27	0.1	50%
Nolan O'Connell	Olympia High School	0.73	0.94	5–3	4.7	+0.20	0.0	58%
Alijah Manzanares	Olympia High School	0.52	0.59	8–6	7.8	+0.07	0.0	58%
Anna Servatius	Oak Harbor High School	0.75	0.68	3–5	3.1	−0.07	0.0	67%
Colin Byler	Oak Harbor High School	0.99	0.84	3–6	3.2	−0.15	0.0	69%
Roan Olson	Roosevelt High School	1.06	0.61	4–4	4.6	−0.45	0.2	80%
Aeden Peterson	Anacortes High School	0.54	-0.32	5–7	6.8	−0.86	0.9	92%
Allison Lehmann	Anacortes High School	0.87	0.00	5–7	6.8	−0.86	0.9	92%
Will Peters	Anacortes High School	0.76	-0.10	5–7	6.8	−0.86	0.9	92%
Matthew Embick	Gig Harbor High School	0.05	-0.95	1–5	1.8	−1.01	0.4	89%
Nathan Koliha	Roosevelt High School	0.53	-0.57	2–4	3.2	−1.10	0.7	92%
Tru Jackson	Gig Harbor High School	0.11	-2.02	1–9	3.5	−2.13	2.6	99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Oak Harbor High School	Roosevelt High School	41%	upset
1	2	Port Townsend High School	Gig Harbor High School	85%
1	3	Bellarmine Preparatory School	Anacortes High School	57%
1	4	Olympia High School	Ballard High School	50%
1	5	Bainbridge High School	Central Kitsap High School	60%
1	6	Oak Harbor High School	Gig Harbor High School	62%
1	7	Roosevelt High School	Anacortes High School	65%
1	8	Port Townsend High School	Olympia High School	60%
1	9	Bainbridge High School	Bellarmine Preparatory School	35%	upset
1	10	Ballard High School	Central Kitsap High School	64%
1	11	Anacortes High School	Gig Harbor High School	74%
1	12	Olympia High School	Oak Harbor High School	87%
1	13	Bainbridge High School	Roosevelt High School	39%	upset
1	14	Ballard High School	Port Townsend High School	33%	upset
1	15	Bellarmine Preparatory School	Central Kitsap High School	77%
1	16	Olympia High School	Anacortes High School	56%
1	17	Bainbridge High School	Gig Harbor High School	67%
1	18	Ballard High School	Oak Harbor High School	67%
1	19	Roosevelt High School	Bellarmine Preparatory School	71%
1	20	Port Townsend High School	Central Kitsap High School	78%
1	21	Olympia High School	Bainbridge High School	70%
1	22	Ballard High School	Anacortes High School	39%	upset
1	23	Bellarmine Preparatory School	Gig Harbor High School	75%
1	24	Port Townsend High School	Oak Harbor High School	95%
1	25	Roosevelt High School	Central Kitsap High School	85%
1	26	Bainbridge High School	Ballard High School	35%	upset
1	27	Bellarmine Preparatory School	Olympia High School	52%
1	28	Port Townsend High School	Anacortes High School	56%
1	29	Roosevelt High School	Gig Harbor High School	67%
1	30	Central Kitsap High School	Oak Harbor High School	80%
1	31	Ballard High School	Bellarmine Preparatory School	32%	upset
1	32	Bainbridge High School	Port Townsend High School	25%	upset
1	33	Roosevelt High School	Olympia High School	64%
1	34	Anacortes High School	Oak Harbor High School	64%
1	35	Central Kitsap High School	Gig Harbor High School	45%	upset
1	36	Bellarmine Preparatory School	Port Townsend High School	53%
1	37	Roosevelt High School	Ballard High School	65%
1	38	Bainbridge High School	Oak Harbor High School	85%
1	39	Olympia High School	Gig Harbor High School	74%
1	40	Anacortes High School	Central Kitsap High School	73%
1	41	Port Townsend High School	Roosevelt High School	65%
1	42	Bellarmine Preparatory School	Oak Harbor High School	72%
1	43	Ballard High School	Gig Harbor High School	59%
1	44	Bainbridge High School	Anacortes High School	67%
1	45	Olympia High School	Central Kitsap High School	74%
4	61	Gig Harbor High School	Anacortes High School	27%	upset
4	62	Oak Harbor High School	Central Kitsap High School	20%	upset
4	63	Anacortes High School	Oak Harbor High School	64%
4	64	Central Kitsap High School	Gig Harbor High School	44%	upset
4	65	Anacortes High School	Central Kitsap High School	73%
4	66	Oak Harbor High School	Gig Harbor High School	59%
6	46	Bainbridge High School	Port Townsend High School	26%	upset
6	47	Roosevelt High School	Bellarmine Preparatory School	70%
6	48	Ballard High School	Olympia High School	51%
6	49	Bellarmine Preparatory School	Port Townsend High School	53%
6	50	Ballard High School	Bainbridge High School	65%
6	51	Roosevelt High School	Olympia High School	63%
6	52	Ballard High School	Bellarmine Preparatory School	31%	upset
6	53	Roosevelt High School	Port Townsend High School	35%	upset
6	54	Olympia High School	Bainbridge High School	70%
6	55	Roosevelt High School	Ballard High School	65%
6	56	Bainbridge High School	Bellarmine Preparatory School	35%	upset
6	57	Olympia High School	Port Townsend High School	42%	upset
6	58	Bainbridge High School	Roosevelt High School	39%	upset
6	59	Port Townsend High School	Ballard High School	65%
6	60	Bellarmine Preparatory School	Olympia High School	52%

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Wildcats	1-2-3	def.	Rough Riders	4-5-6
2	Redhawks	1-2-4 DSQ	def.	Tides	3-5-6
3	Lions	1-2-4	def.	Seahawks	3-5-6
4	Bears	1-3-5	def.	Beavers	2-4-6
5	Spartans	1-2-5	def.	Cougars	3-4-6
6	Wildcats	1-2-4	def.	Tides	3-5-6
7	Rough Riders	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks	3-4-6
8	Redhawks	1-3-4	def.	Bears	2-5-6
9	Spartans	1-2-6	def.	Lions	3-4-5
10	Beavers	1-2-5	def.	Cougars	3-4-6
11	Seahawks	2-3-4	def.	Tides	1-5-6
12	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Wildcats	4-5-6
13	Spartans	1-2-3	def.	Rough Riders	4-5-6
14	Beavers	1-2-6	def.	Redhawks	3-4-5
15	Lions	1-2-3	def.	Cougars	4-5-6
16	Bears	1-3-4	def.	Seahawks	2-5-6
17	Spartans	1-2-4	def.	Tides	3-5-6
18	Beavers	2-3-4	def.	Wildcats	1-5-6
19	Rough Riders	1-3-5	def.	Lions	2-4-6
20	Redhawks	1-2-3	def.	Cougars	4-5-6
21	Bears	3-4-6	def.	Spartans	1-2-5 DSQ
22	Beavers	1-2-4	def.	Seahawks	3-5-6
23	Lions	1-2-5	def.	Tides	3-4-6
24	Redhawks	1-2-3	def.	Wildcats	4-5-6
25	Rough Riders	1-2-6	def.	Cougars	3-4-5
26	Spartans	1-3-4	def.	Beavers	2-5-6
27	Lions	1-2-4 DSQ	def.	Bears	3-5-6
28	Redhawks	1-2-3	def.	Seahawks	4-5-6
29	Rough Riders	1-2-4	def.	Tides	3-5-6
30	Cougars	1-2-4	def.	Wildcats	3-5-6
31	Beavers	1-3-6	def.	Lions	2-4-5
32	Spartans	1-4-5	def.	Redhawks	2-3-6
33	Rough Riders	2-3-4	def.	Bears	1-5-6
34	Seahawks	1-2-5	def.	Wildcats	3-4-6
35	Cougars	1-2-6	def.	Tides	3-4-5
36	Lions	1-3-5	def.	Redhawks	2-4-6
37	Rough Riders	2-3-5	def.	Beavers	1-4-6
38	Spartans	1-2-3	def.	Wildcats	4-5-6
39	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Tides	3-4-5
40	Seahawks	2-3-5	def.	Cougars	1-4-6
41	Redhawks	1-4-5	def.	Rough Riders	2-3-6
42	Lions	1-2-5	def.	Wildcats	3-4-6
43	Beavers	2-3-4	def.	Tides	1-5-6
44	Spartans	1-4-5	def.	Seahawks	2-3-6
45	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Cougars	4-5-6
61	Tides	1-2-3	def.	Seahawks	4-5-6
62	Wildcats	1-4-5	def.	Cougars	2-3-6
63	Seahawks	1-2-3	def.	Wildcats	4-5-6
64	Cougars	1-2-4	def.	Tides	3-5-6
65	Seahawks	1-3-6	def.	Cougars	2-4-5
66	Wildcats	1-2-6	def.	Tides	3-4-5
46	Spartans	1-2-3	def.	Redhawks	4-5-6
47	Rough Riders	1-2-4	def.	Lions	3-5-6
48	Beavers	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
49	Lions	1-2-6	def.	Redhawks	3-4-5
50	Beavers	1-3-6	def.	Spartans	2-4-5
51	Rough Riders	1-3-6	def.	Bears	2-4-5
52	Beavers	2-3-5	def.	Lions	1-4-6
53	Rough Riders	1-2-6	def.	Redhawks	3-4-5
54	Bears	2-4-6	def.	Spartans	1-3-5 DSQ
55	Rough Riders	1-2-6	def.	Beavers	3-4-5
56	Spartans	1-2-4	def.	Lions	3-5-6
57	Bears	1-4-5	def.	Redhawks	2-3-6
58	Spartans	2-3-4	def.	Rough Riders	1-5-6
59	Redhawks	1-2-6	def.	Beavers	3-4-5
60	Lions	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Bainbridge High School	Spartans	Adam Turloff '24 Alexander Turloff '24 Beto Torres '24 Cascade Kaseler '26 Joseph Tappen '25 Owen Burnett '24 Tabor Houghtaling '27	Cascade Kaseler '26 Nick Heinzelman '24 Fin Vitale '25 Maura Bascom '24 Tabor Houghtaling '27 Stella Saleh '26 Sharkey Mckay '24 Suraj Siddaiah '26 Joseph Tappen '25
Roosevelt High School	Rough Riders	Anna Cezik '26 Ellie Blakemore '23 Liam Boettcher '25 Lucien Freemesser '23 Nathan Koliha '25 Noelani Li '26 Roan Olson '25	Paige Mcallister '26 Liam Boettcher '25 Nathan Koliha '25 Khalil Wilkinson '24 Calvin Hou '25 Ellie Blakemore '23
Ballard High School	Beavers	Arden Rathopf '23 Francesca Dougherty '25 Nathan Pease '25 Zev Fort '25	Simone Ford '24 Phoebe Howe '24 Esther Goodell '23 Zev Fort '25 Ella Reed '24
Bellarmine Preparatory School	Lions	Brent Hu '25 Corinne Harrison '23 Hannah Welch '25 Logan Bugenig '23	Genevieve Davis '26 Agatha Pape '26 Hannah Welch '25 Aspen Merrill '25
Olympia High School	Bears	Alijah Manzanares '25 Esther Ireland '25 Liam Taylor '25 Nolan O'Connell '26	Ryan Solie '25 Helena Pershall '26 Fiona Tang '25 Caleigh Mingay '25 Nolan O'Connell '26 Cate Griffith '27
Port Townsend High School	Redhawks	Lhotse Rowell '24 Noah Holly '24 Ocean Smith '24 Zia Magill '24	Ava Butterfield '24 Panya Cao '24 Hazel Windstorm '24 Luca Campbell '24
Anacortes High School	Seahawks	Aeden Peterson '25 Allison Lehmann '26 Will Peters '25	Michael Tabor '25 Colton Hong '26 Bradyn Rueb '24
Oak Harbor High School	Wildcats	Anna Servatius '24 Colin Byler '24 Grant Nienhuis '26 Hannah Ellis '24 Noah Ellis '26	Allison Bailey '23 Julian Becker '26 Cadence Smith '25 Grant Nienhuis '26 Noah Ellis '26 Callie Carlson '24
Central Kitsap High School	Cougars	Elijah Dekker '26 Elsa Bischoff '26 Keller Matthews '26	Ian Anthony '27 Tanaya Justice '25 Amber Faragalli '26 Logan Duthie '25 Maya Zander '26 Avery Lawley '25 Robin Jenkin '25
Gig Harbor High School	Tides	Logan Bugenig '23 Matthew Embick '23 Oona Lacey '27 Tru Jackson '27 William Embick '26	Genie Greenfield '26 Skylar Vasko '26 Tru Jackson '27 Matthew Embick '23 Annalise Landy '27

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →