| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Lynwood High School | Lynwood | 16–3 |
| 2 |  |
Roosevelt High School | Rough Riders | 15–4 |
| 3 |  |
Capital High School | Cougars | 13–6 |
| 4 |  |
Bellarmine Preparatory School | Lions | 10–9 |
| 5 |  |
Bainbridge High School | Spartans | 10–9 |
| 6 |  |
Bellingham High School | Bayhawks | 4–15 |
| 7 |  |
Central Kitsap High School | Cougars | 1–6 |
| 8 |  |
Gig Harbor High School | Tides | 1–18 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 10,938 team race matches sailed before 2024-04-27, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 37 of 45 matches (82%) with a log-loss of 0.420 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.54 ± 0.36: an orderly event, more orderly than 81% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lynwood High School | 3.44 | 4.84 | 13–2 | 10.6 | +1.40 | 1.7 | 12% |
| 2 | Roosevelt High School | 3.38 | 4.11 | 12–3 | 10.6 | +0.73 | 0.6 | 30% |
| 5 | Bainbridge High School | 2.25 | 2.15 | 7–8 | 7.2 | −0.10 | 0.0 | 66% |
| 4 | Bellarmine Preparatory School | 3.04 | 2.89 | 9–6 | 9.3 | −0.14 | 0.0 | 69% |
| 6 | Bellingham High School | 0.94 | 0.71 | 3–12 | 3.4 | −0.23 | 0.1 | 71% |
| 8 | Gig Harbor High School | 1.06 | -1.13 | 1–14 | 3.9 | −2.19 | 2.9 | 99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Francesca Dougherty | Lynwood High School | 0.60 | 2.60 | 8–1 | 5.9 | +2.00 | 2.1 | 11% |
| Roan Olson | Roosevelt High School | 1.40 | 2.13 | 12–3 | 10.6 | +0.73 | 0.6 | 30% |
| Gretchen Fiscus | Bainbridge High School | 0.36 | 0.26 | 7–8 | 7.2 | −0.10 | 0.0 | 66% |
| Stella Saleh | Bainbridge High School | 0.59 | 0.49 | 7–8 | 7.2 | −0.10 | 0.0 | 66% |
| Avery O'Donnell | Bellingham High School | -0.31 | -0.54 | 3–12 | 3.4 | −0.23 | 0.1 | 71% |
| Bella Norwood | Bellingham High School | 0.05 | -0.18 | 3–12 | 3.4 | −0.23 | 0.1 | 71% |
| Tru Jackson | Gig Harbor High School | 0.29 | -1.90 | 1–14 | 3.9 | −2.19 | 2.9 | 99% |
| Genie Greenfield | Gig Harbor High School | 0.31 | -1.88 | 1–14 | 3.9 | −2.19 | 2.9 | 99% |
| Tristian Filyes | Gig Harbor High School | 0.30 | -1.89 | 1–14 | 3.9 | −2.19 | 2.9 | 99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Lynwood | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Cougars | 3-4-5 |
| 2 | |
Spartans | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bayhawks | 3-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Lions | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Tides | 2-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Rough Riders | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Cougars | 3-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Lynwood | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Spartans | 3-4-5 |
| 6 | |
Lions | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Bayhawks | 2-4-6 |
| 7 | |
Rough Riders | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Tides | 3-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Spartans | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Cougars | 1-4-6 |
| 9 | |
Lynwood | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Lions | 2-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Bayhawks | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Tides | 2-4-5 |
| 11 | |
Rough Riders | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Spartans | 3-4-6 |
| 12 | |
Cougars | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Lions | 1-4-6 |
| 13 | |
Lynwood | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Tides | 4-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Rough Riders | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bayhawks | 3-4-5 |
| 15 | |
Lions | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Spartans | 2-4-5 |
| 16 | |
Cougars | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Tides | 2-5-6 |
| 17 | |
Lynwood | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bayhawks | 3-4-6 |
| 18 | |
Rough Riders | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Lions | 1-5-6 |
| 19 | |
Spartans | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Tides | 2-4-6 |
| 20 | |
Cougars | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Bayhawks | 2-4-5 |
| 21 | |
Rough Riders | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Lynwood | 2-4-6 |
| 22 | |
Lions | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Spartans | 2-4-6 |
| 23 | |
Cougars | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Rough Riders | 2-3-6 |
| 24 | |
Lynwood | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bayhawks | 3-5-6 |
| 25 | |
Lions | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Tides | 3-5-6 |
| 26 | |
Spartans | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Rough Riders | 4-5-6 |
| 27 | |
Lynwood | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Cougars | 3-5-6 |
| 28 | |
Bayhawks | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Tides | 1-5-6 |
| 29 | |
Rough Riders | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Lions | 1-5-6 |
| 30 | |
Lynwood | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Spartans | 1-5-6 |
| 31 | |
Cougars | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Bayhawks | 1-4-6 |
| 32 | |
Rough Riders | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Tides | 3-4-6 |
| 33 | |
Lynwood | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Lions | 1-5-6 |
| 34 | |
Bayhawks | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Spartans | 2-4-6 |
| 35 | |
Cougars | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Tides | 3-4-5 |
| 36 | |
Lynwood | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Rough Riders | 2-4-6 |
| 37 | |
Lions | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bayhawks | 3-4-5 |
| 38 | |
Cougars | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Spartans | 2-4-6 |
| 39 | |
Lynwood | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Tides | 4-5-6 DNF |
| 40 | |
Rough Riders | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Bayhawks | 2-5-6 DNS |
| 41 | |
Cougars | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Lions | 1-5-6 |
| 42 | |
Spartans | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Tides | 2-3-6 |
| 43 | |
Spartans | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Lions | 1-5-6 |
| 44 | |
Cougars | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Bayhawks | 1-5-6 DNS |
| 45 | |
Rough Riders | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Tides | 3-4-6 |
| 46 | |
Lynwood | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Cougars | 3-5-6 |
| 47 | |
Cougars | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Lions | 1-5-6 |
| 48 | |
Rough Riders | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Spartans | 2-5-6 |
| 49 | |
Bayhawks | 1-3-6 DNS | def. | |
Cougars | 2-4-5 |
| 50 | |
Lynwood | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Tides | 4-5-6 |
| 51 | |
Rough Riders | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Cougars | 1-5-6 |
| 52 | |
Lions | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Cougars | 4-5-6 |
| 53 | |
Spartans | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Tides | 4-5-6 |
| 54 | |
Lynwood | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bayhawks | 3-5-6 DNS |
| 55 | |
Rough Riders | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Cougars | 3-4-5 |
| 56 | |
Cougars | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Tides | 3-4-5 |
| 57 | |
Lions | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bayhawks | 4-5-6 |
| 58 | |
Lynwood | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Spartans | 3-5-6 |
| 59 | |
Cougars | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Tides | 3-4-6 |
| 60 | |
Rough Riders | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bayhawks | 3-4-6 |
| 61 | |
Spartans | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Cougars | 2-3-6 |
| 62 | |
Lions | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Lynwood | 3-4-5 |
| 63 | |
Tides | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Bayhawks | 2-4-5 |
| 64 | |
Spartans | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Cougars | 3-4-5 |
| 65 | |
Rough Riders | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Lions | 1-5-6 |
| 66 | |
Cougars | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Lynwood | 2-4-5 |
| 67 | |
Spartans | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bayhawks | 3-5-6 |
| 68 | |
Lions | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Tides | 4-5-6 |
| 69 | |
Cougars | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Cougars | 3-4-6 |
| 70 | |
Lynwood | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Rough Riders | 3-4-5 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Lynwood High School | Lynwood | Francesca Dougherty '23 Hadley Carscaddon '26 Lydia Carscaddon '26 Max Hanson '25 Nathan Pease '24 |
Mia Mcnabb '24 Eloise Hererra '27 Zev Fort '25 Phoebe Howe '24 |
|
Roosevelt High School | Rough Riders | Maia Dock '24 Noelani Li '26 Roan Olson '25 |
Cole Rolland-Letourneau '24 William Layton '25 Calvin Hou '25 Alan Brennan '25 |
|
Bellarmine Preparatory School | Lions | Elijah Dekker '26 Finn Deprez '25 Genevieve Davis '26 Hannah Welch '25 |
Agatha Pape '26 Kel Cowart '25 Genevieve Davis '26 Luke Zeigler '26 Annalise Landy '27 |
|
Bainbridge High School | Spartans | Gretchen Fiscus '26 Stella Saleh '26 Suraj Siddaiah '26 |
Ella Baker '27 Atlas Montgomery '27 Emma Jackson '26 |
|
Bellingham High School | Bayhawks | Avery O'Donnell '26 Bella Norwood '26 Max Day '26 |
Aiofe Tamminga '27 Sofia Brown Patricio '24 Tristan Haines '26 |
|
Gig Harbor High School | Tides | Genie Greenfield '26 Tristian Filyes '28 Tru Jackson '27 |
Alex Cain '28 Henry Fournier '28 Brody Colbert '27 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.05 means a rating gap counts about 4% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
