Bothell High School '23
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.92 (fleet 1.48) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 11–7 (61%) as crew 1–0 (100%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2023 | 2 | 6–3 | 1–0 |
| Fall 2019 | 2 | 5–4 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (16 matches) the record is 10–6 against 8.5 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+1.5). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 2 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-05-20 | NWISA Open Team Race Champs | skipper | 1.27 | 1.62 | 5–2 | 4.6 | +0.35 | 0.1 | 55% |
| 2019-10-26 | Trick or Treat Team Race | skipper | 0.78 | 3.78 | 3–0 | 1.7 | ≥+3.00 | 2.2 | 17% |
| 2019-10-12 | Seattle Team Race | skipper | 0.60 | 0.42 | 2–4 | 2.2 | −0.19 | 0.0 | 73% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2022 Season | |||||
| Fall Champs Silver | Skipper | A | 5 | 7.8 | 1.34 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ICSA | Ellie Blakemore |  Western Washington University |
'27 |
| ISSA | Ellie Blakemore |  Roosevelt High School |
'23 |
| ISSA | Ellie Blakemore |  Raisbeck Aviation High School |
'23 |
| ISSA | Ellie Blakemore |  Garfield High School |
'23 |
| ISSA | Ellie Blakemore |  Ingraham High School |
'23 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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