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Anacortes Team Race Seeding Event

# SchoolTeam Rec.
1 Roosevelt High School Roosevelt High School Rough Riders 1 9–2
2 Ballard High School Ballard High School Beavers 8–3
3 Anacortes High School Anacortes High School Seahawks 8–3
4 Oak Harbor High School Oak Harbor High School Wildcats 7–4
5 Roosevelt High School Roosevelt High School Rough Riders 2 4–6
6 Bellingham High School Bellingham High School Bayhawks 3–7
7 Orcas High School Orcas High School Vikings 2–9
8 Sehome High School Sehome High School Mariners 2–9

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 9,704 team race matches sailed before 2023-04-23, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 11 of 20 matches (55%) with a log-loss of 0.768 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went poorly for the forecast. Orderliness −1.52 ± 0.58: an upset-heavy event, more orderly than 3% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

PlaceSchool Pred. Strength Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) Pred. win % Recordvs forecast
1Roosevelt High School
Rough Riders 1		13.27
school −0.26		Lucien Freemesser / Maia Dock 1.97
Noelani Li / Khalil Wilkinson
Liam Boettcher / William Layton		71%6–2 (75%)+0.3
2Ballard High School
Beavers		22.73
school −0.10		Francesca Dougherty / Esther Goodell 2–2
Max Hanson / Phoebe Howe 1.06 2–2
Nathan Pease / Zev Fort 2–2
Francesca Dougherty / Mia Mcnabb 2–2
Max Hanson / Simone Ford 1.06 2–2
Nathan Pease / Ella Reed 2–2		63%4–4 (50%)−1.0
3Anacortes High School
Seahawks		41.78
home +0.10		Will Peters / Bradyn Rueb
Allison Lehmann / Colton Hong
Aeden Peterson / Michael Tabor		42%5–3 (62%)+1.6
4Oak Harbor High School
Wildcats		50.42
school −0.50		Anna Servatius / Allison Bailey 0.59
Colin Byler / Julian Becker
Noah Ellis / Tristan Nuanez 3–1
Grant Nienhuis / Cadence Smith 0–2
Dominic Schinning / Callie Carlson 1–1		18%4–4 (50%)+2.6
5Roosevelt High School
Rough Riders 2		32.39
school −0.26		Ian Blakemore / Wiley Smith
Nathan Koliha / Paige Mcallister
Matthew Selby / Milo Sylvander 0–6
Ellie Blakemore / Milo Sylvander 1.20 1–1		55%1–7 (12%)−3.4

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

PlaceSchoolStrength Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
4Oak Harbor High School Wildcats0.422.484–41.4+2.063.24%
3Anacortes High School Seahawks1.782.975–33.4+1.191.120%
1Roosevelt High School Rough Riders 13.273.546–25.7+0.270.058%
2Ballard High School Beavers2.731.934–45.1−0.790.589%
5Roosevelt High School Rough Riders 22.39-0.621–74.4−3.015.1>99%

By skipper

SkipperSchoolValue Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
Anna ServatiusOak Harbor High School0.592.654–41.4+2.063.24%
Colin BylerOak Harbor High School0.672.734–41.4+2.063.24%
Will PetersAnacortes High School0.521.705–33.4+1.191.120%
Allison LehmannAnacortes High School0.601.795–33.4+1.191.120%
Aeden PetersonAnacortes High School0.291.485–33.4+1.191.120%
Matthew SelbyRoosevelt High School0.45-2.550–63.5≤−3.007.0>99%
Nathan KolihaRoosevelt High School0.45-2.561–74.4−3.015.1>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd#WinnerLoser P(winner)
13Roosevelt High School Rough Riders 1Anacortes High School Seahawks77%
14Oak Harbor High School WildcatsRoosevelt High School Rough Riders 223%upset
17Ballard High School BeaversRoosevelt High School Rough Riders 261%
18Roosevelt High School Rough Riders 1Oak Harbor High School Wildcats91%
112Ballard High School BeaversOak Harbor High School Wildcats86%
113Anacortes High School SeahawksRoosevelt High School Rough Riders 240%upset
117Roosevelt High School Rough Riders 2Roosevelt High School Rough Riders 144%upset
118Ballard High School BeaversAnacortes High School Seahawks67%
121Roosevelt High School Rough Riders 1Ballard High School Beavers60%
128Anacortes High School SeahawksOak Harbor High School Wildcats72%
231Anacortes High School SeahawksRoosevelt High School Rough Riders 124%upset
232Oak Harbor High School WildcatsRoosevelt High School Rough Riders 221%upset
236Anacortes High School SeahawksRoosevelt High School Rough Riders 241%upset
237Roosevelt High School Rough Riders 1Ballard High School Beavers60%
241Roosevelt High School Rough Riders 1Oak Harbor High School Wildcats92%
242Anacortes High School SeahawksBallard High School Beavers35%upset
245Oak Harbor High School WildcatsAnacortes High School Seahawks27%upset
252Ballard High School BeaversRoosevelt High School Rough Riders 259%
255Oak Harbor High School WildcatsBallard High School Beavers13%upset
256Roosevelt High School Rough Riders 1Roosevelt High School Rough Riders 257%
# Winner Loser Pos.
1 Bellingham High School Bayhawks 1-2-4 def. Sehome High School Mariners 3-5-6
2 Ballard High School Beavers 1-2-3 def. Orcas High School Vikings 4-5-6
3 Roosevelt High School Rough Riders 1 1-2-6 def. Anacortes High School Seahawks 3-4-5
4 Oak Harbor High School Wildcats 1-2-4 def. Roosevelt High School Rough Riders 2 3-5-6
5 Orcas High School Vikings 1-2-5 def. Bellingham High School Bayhawks 3-4-6
6 Anacortes High School Seahawks 1-2-5 def. Sehome High School Mariners 3-4-6
7 Ballard High School Beavers 1-3-4 def. Roosevelt High School Rough Riders 2 2-5-6
8 Roosevelt High School Rough Riders 1 1-2-4 def. Oak Harbor High School Wildcats 3-5-6
9 Anacortes High School Seahawks 1-2-4 def. Orcas High School Vikings 3-5-6
10 Bellingham High School Bayhawks 1-2-5 def. Roosevelt High School Rough Riders 2 3-4-6
11 Roosevelt High School Rough Riders 1 1-2-3 def. Sehome High School Mariners 4-5-6
12 Ballard High School Beavers 1-2-4 def. Oak Harbor High School Wildcats 3-5-6
13 Anacortes High School Seahawks 1-3-4 def. Roosevelt High School Rough Riders 2 2-5-6
14 Roosevelt High School Rough Riders 1 1-2-3 def. Orcas High School Vikings 4-5-6
15 Ballard High School Beavers 1-2-3 def. Bellingham High School Bayhawks 4-5-6
16 Oak Harbor High School Wildcats 1-2-3 def. Sehome High School Mariners 4-5-6
17 Roosevelt High School Rough Riders 2 1-3-6 def. Roosevelt High School Rough Riders 1 2-4-5
18 Ballard High School Beavers 1-3-4 def. Anacortes High School Seahawks 2-5-6
19 Sehome High School Mariners 1-3-6 def. Orcas High School Vikings 2-4-5
20 Oak Harbor High School Wildcats 2-3-4 def. Bellingham High School Bayhawks 1-5-6
21 Roosevelt High School Rough Riders 1 1-3-5 def. Ballard High School Beavers 2-4-6
22 Roosevelt High School Rough Riders 2 1-2-5 def. Sehome High School Mariners 3-4-6
23 Anacortes High School Seahawks 1-2-4 def. Bellingham High School Bayhawks 3-5-6
24 Oak Harbor High School Wildcats 1-2-6 def. Orcas High School Vikings 3-4-5
25 Ballard High School Beavers 1-3-4 def. Sehome High School Mariners 2-5-6
26 Roosevelt High School Rough Riders 1 1-2-6 def. Bellingham High School Bayhawks 3-4-5
27 Roosevelt High School Rough Riders 2 1-3-4 def. Orcas High School Vikings 2-5-6
28 Anacortes High School Seahawks 1-3-6 def. Oak Harbor High School Wildcats 2-4-5
29 Sehome High School Mariners 1-2-6 def. Bellingham High School Bayhawks 3-4-5
30 Ballard High School Beavers 1-4-5 def. Orcas High School Vikings 2-3-6
31 Anacortes High School Seahawks 1-4-5 def. Roosevelt High School Rough Riders 1 2-3-6
32 Oak Harbor High School Wildcats 1-2-6 def. Roosevelt High School Rough Riders 2 3-4-5
33 Ballard High School Beavers 1-2-3 def. Sehome High School Mariners 4-5-6
34 Roosevelt High School Rough Riders 1 1-2-6 def. Bellingham High School Bayhawks 3-4-5
35 Oak Harbor High School Wildcats 1-2-5 def. Orcas High School Vikings 3-4-6
36 Anacortes High School Seahawks 1-2-6 def. Roosevelt High School Rough Riders 2 3-4-5
37 Roosevelt High School Rough Riders 1 1-2-5 def. Ballard High School Beavers 3-4-6
38 Oak Harbor High School Wildcats 1-2-4 def. Sehome High School Mariners 3-5-6
39 Bellingham High School Bayhawks 1-3-6 def. Anacortes High School Seahawks 2-4-5
40 Roosevelt High School Rough Riders 2 2-3-4 def. Orcas High School Vikings 1-5-6
41 Roosevelt High School Rough Riders 1 1-2-3 def. Oak Harbor High School Wildcats 4-5-6
42 Anacortes High School Seahawks 1-3-6 def. Ballard High School Beavers 2-4-5
43 Orcas High School Vikings 1-2-3 def. Sehome High School Mariners 4-5-6
44 Bellingham High School Bayhawks def. Roosevelt High School Rough Riders 2
45 Oak Harbor High School Wildcats def. Anacortes High School Seahawks
46 Orcas High School Vikings def. Roosevelt High School Rough Riders 1
47 Ballard High School Beavers def. Bellingham High School Bayhawks
48 Roosevelt High School Rough Riders 2 def. Sehome High School Mariners
49 Anacortes High School Seahawks def. Orcas High School Vikings
50 Bellingham High School Bayhawks def. Oak Harbor High School Wildcats
51 Sehome High School Mariners def. Roosevelt High School Rough Riders 1
52 Ballard High School Beavers def. Roosevelt High School Rough Riders 2
53 Orcas High School Vikings def. Bellingham High School Bayhawks
54 Anacortes High School Seahawks def. Sehome High School Mariners
55 Oak Harbor High School Wildcats def. Ballard High School Beavers
56 Roosevelt High School Rough Riders 1 def. Roosevelt High School Rough Riders 2

Conditions — 04/23/2023 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Light drizzle
Humidity 85%  ·  Pressure 1011.1 hPa

Temperature

49°F
↑ 50°F   ↓ 48°F
Feels like 45°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
4.2 kn
avg  ·  max 8.6 kn
Gusts to 13.6 kn
From NW (313°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine0.0 hrs Humidity85% Pressure1011.1 hPa Rain0.09 in

What this breeze does at Anacortes Waterfront Alliance — from fleet racing

Breeze: NW about 7 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Anacortes Waterfront Alliance in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.03)
Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 3% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Anacortes Waterfront Alliance by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (no labelled days at Anacortes Waterfront Alliance: the all-venue pattern is shown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →