SSP Team Race - GOLD

Pre-event forecast?

Fitted on the 1,892 team race matches sailed before 2016-04-30, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 24 of 35 matches (69%) with a log-loss of 0.540 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.27 ± 0.41: a typical event, more orderly than 23% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
2	Sehome High School Mariners V	1	5.78 school +0.57	Liam Hood / Quinn Shultis 2.14 Jeffrey Werner / Peyton Nienaber 1.95 Shea Walker / Mallory Hood 0.92	69%	7–3 (70%)	+0.1
3	Bainbridge High School Spartans	3	5.71	Caelan Juckniess / Sophia Kasper 1.86 Karl Anderson / Sophie Crandell 1.32 Blake Bentzen / Nicole Sanford 2.42	67%	8–2 (80%)	+1.3
4	Orcas High School Vikings	4	5.01 school +0.17	Dominick Wareham / Levi Moss 1.63 2–2 Wylie Kau / Haley Moss 1.90 2–2 Michael Chesher / Ronan Kau 1.23 2–2 Maggie Toombs / Emma Freedman 1.58 1–2 Michael Chesher / Haley Moss 1.20 1–2 Wylie Kau / Dominick Wareham 2.01 1–2	61%	3–4 (43%)	−1.3
5	Olympia High School Varsity	5	4.60 school +0.21	Max Miller / Isabelle Stokesberry Miles-Paulson 1.27 Elena Gonick / Konrad Brine 1.39 Owen Timms / No Show	52%	3–4 (43%)	−0.6
6	Woodinville High School Falcons	2	5.75	Erik Skeel / Kristan Lund 1.92 Karl Skeel / Amanda Sutton 1.92 Tim Player / Henry Barrow 1.80	69%	7–3 (70%)	+0.1
7	Lycee Francais de Chicago Red Hawks	8	2.93	Anda Yoshina / Camille Ottaway 2–4 Chloe Dawson / Jack Gibbons 2–3 Mckenzie Ginther / Alejandro Montanez 2–3 Jack Gibbons / Alejandro Montanez 0–1 Chloe Dawson / Mckenzie Ginther 0–1 Chloe Dawson / Camille Ottaway 1–0 Anda Yoshina / Mckenzie Ginther 1–0 Alejandro Montanez / Jack Gibbons 1–0	26%	3–4 (43%)	+1.2
8	Oak Harbor High School Wildcats	6	3.47 school −0.05	Austin Hauter / Dylan Angell 1.21 Max Van Dam / Piper Fisher 1.13 Jordan Wood-Pina / James William 1.05	32%	3–5 (38%)	+0.5
9	Gig Harbor High School Tides	9	2.36	Kara Ashpole / Jack Frazier Ryan Squires / Zeke Ward Axel Stordahl / Will Beckman	16%	1–6 (14%)	−0.1
10	North Kitsap High School Dogfish	7	3.85 school −0.07	Maddie Ekin / Anna Sherry 1.90 Liam Sherry / Julia Sherry 1.75 Morgan Chapman / Alaina Marcotte 0.17	28%	0–4 (0%)	−1.1

Surprisal: who beat their rating?

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
7	Lycee Francais de Chicago	2.93	4.24	3–4	1.8	+1.31	0.9	23%
3	Bainbridge High School	5.71	6.72	8–2	6.7	+1.00	0.7	28%
8	Oak Harbor High School	3.47	3.85	3–5	2.6	+0.38	0.1	50%
6	Woodinville High School	5.75	5.83	7–3	6.9	+0.08	0.0	62%
2	Sehome High School	5.78	5.85	7–3	6.9	+0.07	0.0	63%
9	Gig Harbor High School	2.36	2.18	1–6	1.1	−0.18	0.0	72%
5	Olympia High School	4.60	4.00	3–4	3.6	−0.60	0.2	84%
4	Orcas High School	5.01	3.73	3–4	4.3	−1.27	0.9	95%
10	North Kitsap High School	3.85	0.85	0–4	1.1	≤−3.00	1.9	>99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Anda Yoshina	Lycee Francais de Chicago	0.40	1.71	3–4	1.8	+1.31	0.9	23%
Karl Anderson	Bainbridge High School	1.32	2.32	8–2	6.7	+1.00	0.7	28%
Blake Bentzen	Bainbridge High School	2.42	3.42	8–2	6.7	+1.00	0.7	28%
Mckenzie Ginther	Lycee Francais de Chicago	1.14	1.60	2–3	1.7	+0.45	0.1	56%
Austin Hauter	Oak Harbor High School	1.21	1.58	3–5	2.6	+0.38	0.1	50%
Tim Player	Woodinville High School	1.80	1.88	7–3	6.9	+0.08	0.0	62%
Jeffrey Werner	Sehome High School	1.95	2.02	7–3	6.9	+0.07	0.0	63%
Axel Stordahl	Gig Harbor High School	0.36	0.18	1–6	1.1	−0.18	0.0	72%
Dominick Wareham	Orcas High School	1.63	1.15	2–2	2.3	−0.48	0.1	82%
Max Miller	Olympia High School	1.27	0.67	3–4	3.6	−0.60	0.2	84%
Wylie Kau	Orcas High School	1.90	0.63	3–4	4.3	−1.27	0.9	95%
Michael Chesher	Orcas High School	1.23	-0.04	3–4	4.3	−1.27	0.9	95%
Maggie Toombs	Orcas High School	1.58	-0.66	1–2	2.0	−2.24	1.3	98%
Liam Sherry	North Kitsap High School	1.75	-1.25	0–4	1.1	≤−3.00	1.9	>99%
Morgan Chapman	North Kitsap High School	0.17	-2.83	0–4	1.1	≤−3.00	1.9	>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

#	Winner				Loser		Pos.
1		Wildcats	1-3-5	def.		Aardvarks	2-4-6
2		Vikings	1-3-4	def.		Red Hawks	2-5-6
3		Cardinals	1-2-6	def.		Spartans	3-4-5
4		Falcons	2-3-5	def.		Varsity	1-4-6
5		Dogfish	1-2-6	def.		Seahawks	3-4-5
6		Mariners V	1-2-3	def.		Tides	4-5-6
7		Spartans	2-3-4	def.		Wildcats	1-5-6
8		Vikings	1-2-6	def.		Varsity	3-4-5
9		Cardinals	1-2-4	def.		Aardvarks	3-5-6
10		Red Hawks	1-2-6	def.		Falcons	3-4-5
11		Wildcats	1-2-4	def.		Dogfish	3-5-6
12		Mariners V	1-2-6	def.		Vikings	3-4-5
13		Spartans	1-2-4	def.		Seahawks	3-5-6
14		Varsity	1-2-5	def.		Tides	3-4-6
15		Dogfish	1-2-5	def.		Aardvarks	3-4-6
16		Mariners V	1-2-5	def.		Red Hawks	3-4-6
17		Cardinals	1-2-5	def.		Wildcats	3-4-6
18		Falcons	2-3-5	def.		Vikings	1-4-6
19		Seahawks	1-2-5	def.		Aardvarks	3-4-6
20		Tides	1-2-5	def.		Red Hawks	3-4-6
21		Spartans	1-2-5	def.		Dogfish	3-4-6
22		Varsity	2-3-5	def.		Mariners V	1-4-6
23		Cardinals	1-2-4	def.		Seahawks	3-5-6
24		Falcons	1-2-4	def.		Tides	3-5-6
25		Spartans	1-2-5	def.		Aardvarks	3-4-6
26		Red Hawks	1-2-6	def.		Varsity	3-4-5
27		Seahawks	1-2-4	def.		Wildcats	3-5-6
28		Vikings	1-2-5	def.		Tides	3-4-6
29		Cardinals	1-2-4	def.		Dogfish	3-5-6
30		Falcons	2-3-4	def.		Mariners V	1-5-6
31		Varsity	1-2-5	def.		Wildcats	3-4-6
32		Red Hawks	1-2-3	def.		Aardvarks	4-5-6
33		Spartans	1-2-3	def.		Vikings	4-5-6
34		Tides	1-3-6	def.		Seahawks	2-4-5
35		Cardinals	1-2-6	def.		Falcons	3-4-5
36		Mariners V	1-2-3	def.		Dogfish	4-5-6
37		Varsity	1-2-4	def.		Aardvarks	3-5-6
38		Wildcats	1-3-4	def.		Vikings	2-5-6
39		Red Hawks	1-2-6	def.		Seahawks	3-4-5
40		Mariners V	1-2-4	def.		Spartans	3-5-6
41		Falcons	1-2-6	def.		Dogfish	3-4-5
42		Cardinals	1-2-6	def.		Tides	3-4-5
43		Red Hawks	1-2-6	def.		Wildcats	3-4-5
44		Vikings	1-2-3	def.		Seahawks	4-5-6
45		Mariners V	1-3-4	def.		Aardvarks	2-5-6
46		Spartans	2-3-4	def.		Falcons	1-5-6
47		Varsity	1-2-6	def.		Cardinals	3-4-5
48		Tides	1-3-5	def.		Dogfish	2-4-6
49		Mariners V	1-2-4	def.		Seahawks	3-5-6
50		Falcons	1-2-6	def.		Wildcats	3-4-5
51		Spartans	1-2-4	def.		Red Hawks	3-5-6
52		Vikings	1-2-3	def.		Aardvarks	4-5-6
53		Varsity	1-2-4	def.		Dogfish	3-5-6
54		Mariners V	1-2-6	def.		Cardinals	3-4-5
55		Wildcats	1-3-6	def.		Tides	2-4-5
56		Falcons	1-2-4	def.		Seahawks	3-5-6
57		Vikings	1-2-4	def.		Dogfish	3-5-6
58		Cardinals	2-3-4	def.		Red Hawks	1-5-6
59		Spartans	1-3-4	def.		Varsity	2-5-6
60		Tides	2-4-5	def.		Aardvarks	1-3-6 DSQ
61		Mariners V	1-2-3	def.		Wildcats	4-5-6
62		Red Hawks	1-2-4	def.		Dogfish	3-5-6
63		Vikings	1-2-5	def.		Cardinals	3-4-6
64		Varsity	1-2-3	def.		Seahawks	4-5-6
65		Aardvarks	2-3-5	def.		Falcons	1-4-6
66		Spartans	1-2-4	def.		Tides	3-5-6
67		Cardinals	2-3-4	def.		Spartans	1-5-6
68		Falcons	2-3-5	def.		Mariners V	1-4-6
69		Cardinals	1-2-6	def.		Falcons	3-4-5
70		Mariners V	1-2-3	def.		Spartans	4-5-6
71		Spartans	1-3-5	def.		Falcons	2-4-6
72		Cardinals	1-3-6	def.		Mariners V	2-4-5

	School	Team	Skippers	Crew
	Sehome High School	Mariners V	Jeffrey Werner '16 Liam Hood '16 Shea Walker '16	Peyton Nienaber '23 Quinn Shultis '16 Mallory Hood '23
	Bainbridge High School	Spartans	Blake Bentzen '16 Caelan Juckniess '16 Karl Anderson '16	Nicole Sanford '16 Sophia Kasper '18 Sophie Crandell '18
	Orcas High School	Vikings	Axel Greening '17 Dominick Wareham '19 Maggie Toombs '18 Michael Chesher '17 Wylie Kau '16	Maggie Toombs '18 Emma Freedman '19 Levi Moss '19 Wylie Kau '16 Haley Moss '18 Ronan Kau '19 Dominick Wareham '19
	Olympia High School	Varsity	Elena Gonick '16 Max Miller '18 Owen Timms '19	Konrad Brine '16 Isabelle Stokesberry Miles-Paulson '18 No Show
	Woodinville High School	Falcons	Erik Skeel '16 Karl Skeel '16 Tim Player '16	Kristan Lund '16 Amanda Sutton '16 Henry Barrow '16
	Lycee Francais de Chicago	Red Hawks	Alejandro Montanez '17 Anda Yoshina '16 Chloe Dawson '16 Jack Gibbons '20 Mckenzie Ginther '16	Jack Gibbons '20 Camille Ottaway '16 Mckenzie Ginther '16 Alejandro Montanez '17
	Oak Harbor High School	Wildcats	Austin Hauter '17 Jordan Wood-Pina '18 Max Van Dam '16	Dylan Angell '18 James William '17 Piper Fisher '19
	Gig Harbor High School	Tides	Axel Stordahl '20 Kara Ashpole '17 Ryan Squires '18	Will Beckman '16 Jack Frazier '17 Zeke Ward '16
	North Kitsap High School	Dogfish	Liam Sherry '16 Maddie Ekin '16 Morgan Chapman '19	Julia Sherry '19 Anna Sherry '19 Alaina Marcotte '19