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SYC Open

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Rams Rams Rams 15 24 39
2 Unregistered-NWISA 2 Unregistered-NWISA 2 Unregistered-NWISA 2 24 28 52
3 Beavers Beavers Beavers 47 12 59
4 Unregistered-NWISA 1 Unregistered-NWISA 1 Unregistered-NWISA 1 23 40 63
5 Kingston High School Kingston High School Kraken 40 31 71
6 Central Kitsap High School Central Kitsap High School Cougars 45 36 81
7 Unregistered-NWISA 3 Unregistered-NWISA 3 Unregistered-NWISA 3 30 55 85
8 Raiders Raiders Raiders 31 56 87
9 Bainbridge High School Bainbridge High School Spartans 45 51 96
10 Raiders Raiders Raiders 51 61 112
11 Anacortes High School Anacortes High School Seahawks 73 48 121
12 Oak Harbor High School Oak Harbor High School Wildcats 64 67 131
13 Mariners Mariners Mariners 84 83 167
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Rams Rams Rams 2 1 6 1 4 1 15
Unregistered-NWISA 1 Unregistered-NWISA 1 Unregistered-NWISA 1 1 4 4 4 5 5 23
Unregistered-NWISA 2 Unregistered-NWISA 2 Unregistered-NWISA 2 3 5 8 2 2 4 24
Unregistered-NWISA 3 Unregistered-NWISA 3 Unregistered-NWISA 3 8 6 2 5 6 3 30
Raiders Raiders Raiders 4 10 1 3 7 6 31
Kingston High School Kingston High School Kraken 6 2 13 11 1 7 40 Morgan Chandler '20 [1, 3, 5]
Noah Pluska '19 [2, 4, 6]
Annelise Pardee '19 [1, 5]
Cole Lennette '22 [2, 4]
Olivia Costello '21 [3, 6]
Bainbridge High School Bainbridge High School Spartans 5 9 7 7 9 8 45 Gianna Dewey '23 [1-6]
Garrett Guse '20 [1-2]
Kate Hansen '24 [3-6]
Central Kitsap High School Central Kitsap High School Cougars 11 11 9 9 3 2 45 Shea Kuligowski '19
Mason Loidhamer '23
Beavers Beavers Beavers 9 7 3 6 11 11 47
Raiders Raiders Raiders 10 8 5 10 8 10 51
Oak Harbor High School Oak Harbor High School Wildcats 13 13 11 8 10 9 64 Cooper Billiter '22 [1-4]
Justis Garcia '23 [5-6]
Colin Byler '23 [1-2]
Natalie Plush '20 [3-4]
Cooper Billiter '22 [5-6]
Anacortes High School Anacortes High School Seahawks 12 12 10 13 13 13 73 William Peters '25 [1]
Elizabeth Koals '20 [2-6]
Elizabeth Koals '20 [1]
William Peters '25 [2-6]
Mariners Mariners Mariners 14 14 14 14 14 14 84
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Beavers Beavers Beavers 1 1 1 4 3 2 12
Rams Rams Rams 3 11 7 1 1 1 24
Unregistered-NWISA 2 Unregistered-NWISA 2 Unregistered-NWISA 2 6 10 4 3 2 3 28
Kingston High School Kingston High School Kraken 2 5 2 2 9 11 31 Victor Taylor '23 [1, 3, 5]
Trenton Filben '23 [2, 4, 6]
Thomas Emling '23 [1, 6]
Ian Pluska '23 [2, 4]
Ian Mcconkey '21 [3, 5]
Central Kitsap High School Central Kitsap High School Cougars 4 9 6 6 4 7 36 Jeffrey Scholfield '23 [1-6]
Madison Estoque '19 [1-2, 5-6]
Matthew Baerg '22 [3-4]
Unregistered-NWISA 1 Unregistered-NWISA 1 Unregistered-NWISA 1 DSQ 2 8 5 5 5 40
Anacortes High School Anacortes High School Seahawks 7 7 9 7 8 10 48 Cassius Tossavainen '22 [1]
Mike Rogge '22 [2-6]
Mike Rogge '22 [1]
Cassius Tossavainen '22 [2-6]
Bainbridge High School Bainbridge High School Spartans 9 3 11 13 7 8 51 Evan Yeung '22 [1-6]
Jack Turkovich '22 [1-2, 5-6]
Garrett Guse '20 [3-4]
Unregistered-NWISA 3 Unregistered-NWISA 3 Unregistered-NWISA 3 8 8 12 8 10 9 55
Raiders Raiders Raiders 12 12 10 10 6 6 56
Raiders Raiders Raiders 10 13 3 11 11 13 61
Oak Harbor High School Oak Harbor High School Wildcats 11 6 13 12 13 12 67 Kaitlin Mann '23 [1-2]
Catherine Wicker '20 [3-4]
Cami Bristow '19 [5-6]
Cami Bristow '19 [1-2]
Kaitlin Mann '23 [3-4]
Natalie Plush '20 [5-6]
Mariners Mariners Mariners 13 14 14 14 14 14 83
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.050+0.05
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2019 (1 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A
Anacortes High SchoolAnacortes High School Seahawks112233
Bainbridge High SchoolBainbridge High School Spartans223344
BeaversBeavers Beavers3344107107
RaidersRaiders Raiders4410710766
Central Kitsap High SchoolCentral Kitsap High School Cougars1071076677
RamsRams Rams667788
RaidersRaiders Raiders9910101111
Oak Harbor High SchoolOak Harbor High School Wildcats101011111212
MarinersMariners Mariners111112121313
Unregistered-NWISA 1Unregistered-NWISA 1 Unregistered-NWISA 11212131355
Unregistered-NWISA 2Unregistered-NWISA 2 Unregistered-NWISA 213135511
Unregistered-NWISA 3Unregistered-NWISA 3 Unregistered-NWISA 3551122

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B
Anacortes High SchoolAnacortes High School Seahawks88991010
Bainbridge High SchoolBainbridge High School Spartans9910101111
BeaversBeavers Beavers101011111212
RaidersRaiders Raiders111112121313
Central Kitsap High SchoolCentral Kitsap High School Cougars1212131355
RamsRams Rams13135511
RaidersRaiders Raiders223344
Oak Harbor High SchoolOak Harbor High School Wildcats3344107107
MarinersMariners Mariners4410710766
Unregistered-NWISA 1Unregistered-NWISA 1 Unregistered-NWISA 11071076677
Unregistered-NWISA 2Unregistered-NWISA 2 Unregistered-NWISA 2667788
Unregistered-NWISA 3Unregistered-NWISA 3 Unregistered-NWISA 3778899
School / Team SkipperCrew
Anacortes High School Anacortes High School William Peters '25 [1]
Elizabeth Koals '20 [2-6]		 Elizabeth Koals '20 [1]
William Peters '25 [2-6]
Seahawks Cassius Tossavainen '22 [1]
Mike Rogge '22 [2-6]		 Mike Rogge '22 [1]
Cassius Tossavainen '22 [2-6]
Bainbridge High School Bainbridge High School Gianna Dewey '23 [1-6] Garrett Guse '20 [1-2]
Kate Hansen '24 [3-6]
Spartans Evan Yeung '22 [1-6] Jack Turkovich '22 [1-2, 5-6]
Garrett Guse '20 [3-4]
Central Kitsap High School Central Kitsap High School Shea Kuligowski '19 Mason Loidhamer '23
Cougars Jeffrey Scholfield '23 [1-6] Madison Estoque '19 [1-2, 5-6]
Matthew Baerg '22 [3-4]
Kingston High School Kingston High School Morgan Chandler '20 [1, 3, 5]
Noah Pluska '19 [2, 4, 6]		 Annelise Pardee '19 [1, 5]
Cole Lennette '22 [2, 4]
Olivia Costello '21 [3, 6]
Kraken Victor Taylor '23 [1, 3, 5]
Trenton Filben '23 [2, 4, 6]		 Thomas Emling '23 [1, 6]
Ian Pluska '23 [2, 4]
Ian Mcconkey '21 [3, 5]
Oak Harbor High School Oak Harbor High School Cooper Billiter '22 [1-4]
Justis Garcia '23 [5-6]		 Colin Byler '23 [1-2]
Natalie Plush '20 [3-4]
Cooper Billiter '22 [5-6]
Wildcats Kaitlin Mann '23 [1-2]
Catherine Wicker '20 [3-4]
Cami Bristow '19 [5-6]		 Cami Bristow '19 [1-2]
Kaitlin Mann '23 [3-4]
Natalie Plush '20 [5-6]

Conditions — 03/09/2019 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 67%  ·  Pressure 1017.8 hPa

Temperature

41°F
↑ 46°F   ↓ 29°F
Feels like 35°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
4.0 kn
avg  ·  max 6.7 kn
Gusts to 16.5 kn
From N (355°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover44% Sunshine10.0 hrs Humidity67% Pressure1017.8 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NW 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Mercer Island: an underdogs’ day (−0.02)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.18 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.15
Actual: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.79 ± 0.39)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Mercer Island by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (no labelled days at Mercer Island: the all-venue pattern is shown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →