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Bainbridge Fleet Race - Oct 2021

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Cardinals 1 Cardinals 1 Cardinals 1 22 23 45
2 Bainbridge High School Bainbridge High School Spartans 1 28 18 46
3 Cardinals 3 Cardinals 3 Cardinals 3 12 36 48
4 Bainbridge High School Bainbridge High School Spartans 6 23 29 52
5 Bainbridge High School Bainbridge High School Spartans 2 47 17 64
6 Bears 5 Bears 5 Bears 5 13 54 67
7 Bainbridge High School Bainbridge High School Spartans 3 47 28 75
8 Charles Wright Academy Charles Wright Academy Tarriers 36 43 79
9 Port Townsend High School Port Townsend High School Redhawks 68 27 95
10 Bears 4 Bears 4 Bears 4 25 71 96
11 Central Kitsap High School Central Kitsap High School Cougars 70 28 98
12 Bainbridge High School Bainbridge High School Spartans 4 52 49 101
13 Bears 2 Bears 2 Bears 2 29 72 101
14 Bears 3 Bears 3 Bears 3 47 54 101
15 Bellarmine Preparatory School Bellarmine Preparatory School Lions 55 47 102
16 Bears 1 Bears 1 Bears 1 58 45 103
17 Bainbridge High School Bainbridge High School Spartans 5 42 62 104
18 Cardinals 2 Cardinals 2 Cardinals 2 56 52 108
19 Dogfish 2 Dogfish 2 Dogfish 2 58 52 110
20 Gig Harbor High School Gig Harbor High School Tides 79 46 125
21 Dogfish 1 Dogfish 1 Dogfish 1 60 78 138
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
Cardinals 3 Cardinals 3 Cardinals 3 1 6 2 3 12
Bears 5 Bears 5 Bears 5 5 2 5 1 13
Cardinals 1 Cardinals 1 Cardinals 1 2 1 12 7 22
Bainbridge High School Bainbridge High School Spartans 6 9 3 9 2 23 No Show [1-4]
Nick Heinzelman '24 [1-2]
Adam Turloff '24 [3-4]
Bears 4 Bears 4 Bears 4 3 10 6 6 25
Bainbridge High School Bainbridge High School Spartans 1 7 5 1 15 28 Barrett Lhamon '22
Elliott Chalcraft '23
Bears 2 Bears 2 Bears 2 13 4 3 9 29
Charles Wright Academy Charles Wright Academy Tarriers 11 13 8 4 36 Camryn Lee '24
Brent Hu '25
Bainbridge High School Bainbridge High School Spartans 5 6 17 11 8 42 Beto Torres '24
Fin Vitale '25
Bainbridge High School Bainbridge High School Spartans 3 8 9 17 13 47 Carter Anderson '23
Joseph Tappen '25
Bainbridge High School Bainbridge High School Spartans 2 10 15 10 12 47 Lauren Heinzelman '22
Sabrina Anderson '24
Bears 3 Bears 3 Bears 3 16 8 13 10 47
Bainbridge High School Bainbridge High School Spartans 4 12 11 15 14 52 Zane Walker '22
Maxwell Richards '24
Bellarmine Preparatory School Bellarmine Preparatory School Lions 14 7 16 18 55 Corinne Harrison '23
Maddie Heitzman '25
Cardinals 2 Cardinals 2 Cardinals 2 15 18 18 5 56
Dogfish 2 Dogfish 2 Dogfish 2 4 12 20 DNS 58
Bears 1 Bears 1 Bears 1 21 19 7 11 58
Dogfish 1 Dogfish 1 Dogfish 1 20 14 4 DNS 60
Port Townsend High School Port Townsend High School Redhawks 17 16 19 16 68 Willy Walden '24
Sophie Kunka '23
Central Kitsap High School Central Kitsap High School Cougars 18 21 14 17 70 Cormac Burke '22 [1-4]
Keller Matthews '26 [1-2]
Victor Gehring '26 [3-4]
Gig Harbor High School Gig Harbor High School Tides 19 20 21 19 79 Matthew Embick '23
Piper Coyner '18
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
Bainbridge High School Bainbridge High School Spartans 2 1 5 8 3 17 Evan Yeung '22
Cece Marshall '22
Bainbridge High School Bainbridge High School Spartans 1 2 7 5 4 18 Gianna Dewey '23
Jeffrey Kriegh '23
Cardinals 1 Cardinals 1 Cardinals 1 9 1 1 12 23
Port Townsend High School Port Townsend High School Redhawks 10 2 14 1 27 Zia Magill '24
Nadia Fisch '24
Bainbridge High School Bainbridge High School Spartans 3 6 11 2 9 28 Ben Stone '23
Nolan Wiggins '23
Central Kitsap High School Central Kitsap High School Cougars 7 9 10 2 28 Jeffrey Scholfield '23 [1-4]
Tanaya Justice '25 [1-2]
Keller Matthews '26 [3-4]
Bainbridge High School Bainbridge High School Spartans 6 8 12 4 5 29 Adam Turloff '24
Jaya Wirth '23
Cardinals 3 Cardinals 3 Cardinals 3 3 15 12 6 36
Charles Wright Academy Charles Wright Academy Tarriers 14 10 6 13 43 Nico Konyk '25
Bailey Rainbolt '26
Bears 1 Bears 1 Bears 1 19 4 11 11 45
Gig Harbor High School Gig Harbor High School Tides 18 6 3 19 46 William Embick '26 [1-2]
Charlie Christ '26 [3-4]
Charlie Christ '26 [1-2]
William Embick '26 [3-4]
Bellarmine Preparatory School Bellarmine Preparatory School Lions 11 14 15 7 47 Finn Deprez '25
Aspen Merrill '25
Bainbridge High School Bainbridge High School Spartans 4 13 13 9 14 49 Ava Bergan '23 [1-4]
Christopher Cuellar-Carpenter '25 [1-2]
Nick Heinzelman '24 [3-4]
Dogfish 2 Dogfish 2 Dogfish 2 5 3 DNS DNS 52
Cardinals 2 Cardinals 2 Cardinals 2 16 8 13 15 52
Bears 5 Bears 5 Bears 5 4 DNF 18 10 54
Bears 3 Bears 3 Bears 3 12 18 16 8 54
Bainbridge High School Bainbridge High School Spartans 5 17 20 7 18 62 Stone Dewey '26 [1, 3]
Luke Hattrup '24 [2, 4]
Luke Hattrup '24 [1, 3]
Stone Dewey '26 [2, 4]
Bears 4 Bears 4 Bears 4 20 16 19 16 71
Bears 2 Bears 2 Bears 2 21 17 17 17 72
Dogfish 1 Dogfish 1 Dogfish 1 15 19 DNS DNS 78
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.120+0.12
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2017 (2 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A
Bainbridge High SchoolBainbridge High School Spartans 131313131
Bainbridge High SchoolBainbridge High School Spartans 232323232
Bainbridge High SchoolBainbridge High School Spartans 333333333
Bainbridge High SchoolBainbridge High School Spartans 434343434
Bainbridge High SchoolBainbridge High School Spartans 535353535
Bainbridge High SchoolBainbridge High School Spartans 636363636
Bellarmine Preparatory SchoolBellarmine Preparatory School Lions114114114114
Central Kitsap High SchoolCentral Kitsap High School Cougars126126126126
Charles Wright AcademyCharles Wright Academy Tarriers38383838
Gig Harbor High SchoolGig Harbor High School Tides37373737
Cardinals 1Cardinals 1 Cardinals 1108108108108
Cardinals 2Cardinals 2 Cardinals 2109109109109
Cardinals 3Cardinals 3 Cardinals 3110110110110
Dogfish 1Dogfish 1 Dogfish 187878787
Dogfish 2Dogfish 2 Dogfish 220202020
Bears 1Bears 1 Bears 182828282
Bears 2Bears 2 Bears 283838383
Bears 3Bears 3 Bears 384848484
Bears 4Bears 4 Bears 485858585
Bears 5Bears 5 Bears 586868686
Port Townsend High SchoolPort Townsend High School Redhawks61616161

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B
Bainbridge High SchoolBainbridge High School Spartans 131313131
Bainbridge High SchoolBainbridge High School Spartans 232323232
Bainbridge High SchoolBainbridge High School Spartans 333333333
Bainbridge High SchoolBainbridge High School Spartans 434343434
Bainbridge High SchoolBainbridge High School Spartans 535353535
Bainbridge High SchoolBainbridge High School Spartans 636363636
Bellarmine Preparatory SchoolBellarmine Preparatory School Lions114114114114
Central Kitsap High SchoolCentral Kitsap High School Cougars126126126126
Charles Wright AcademyCharles Wright Academy Tarriers38383838
Gig Harbor High SchoolGig Harbor High School Tides37373737
Cardinals 1Cardinals 1 Cardinals 1108108108108
Cardinals 2Cardinals 2 Cardinals 2109109109109
Cardinals 3Cardinals 3 Cardinals 3110110110110
Dogfish 1Dogfish 1 Dogfish 187878787
Dogfish 2Dogfish 2 Dogfish 220202020
Bears 1Bears 1 Bears 182828282
Bears 2Bears 2 Bears 283838383
Bears 3Bears 3 Bears 384848484
Bears 4Bears 4 Bears 485858585
Bears 5Bears 5 Bears 586868686
Port Townsend High SchoolPort Townsend High School Redhawks61616161

Conditions — 10/23/2021 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Moderate drizzle
Humidity 96%  ·  Pressure 1004.1 hPa

Temperature

51°F
↑ 54°F   ↓ 48°F
Feels like 48°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
6.5 kn
avg  ·  max 7.5 kn
Gusts to 15.0 kn
From S (171°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover89% Sunshine1.3 hrs Humidity96% Pressure1004.1 hPa Rain0.16 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Bainbridge: a favourites’ day (+0.05)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.07 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.12
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.05 ± 0.25)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.05 means a rating gap counts about 5% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Bainbridge by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 6 labelled days at Bainbridge, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →