| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Olympia High School | Bears 1 | 7–1 |
| 2 |  |
Bainbridge High School | Spartans 1 | 6–2 |
| 3 |  |
Roosevelt High School | Rough Riders | 6–2 |
| 4 | |
Olympia High School | Bears 2 | 4–4 |
| 5 |  |
Gig Harbor High School | Tides | 4–4 |
| 6 |  |
Ballard High School | Beavers | 3–5 |
| 7 |  |
Capital High School | Cougars | 3–5 |
| 8 | |
Bainbridge High School | Spartans 2 | 2–6 |
| 9 |  |
Garfield High School | Bulldogs | 1–7 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 5,740 team race matches sailed before 2019-03-16, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 23 of 36 matches (64%) with a log-loss of 0.664 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went poorly for the forecast. Orderliness −0.78 ± 0.45: an upset-heavy event, more orderly than 11% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Bainbridge High School Spartans 1 | 2.83 | 5.19 | 6–2 | 2.9 | +2.36 | 3.9 | 2% |
| 4 | Olympia High School Bears 2 | 2.22 | 3.56 | 4–4 | 2.3 | +1.33 | 1.3 | 15% |
| 3 | Roosevelt High School Rough Riders | 3.91 | 5.04 | 6–2 | 4.6 | +1.13 | 0.8 | 26% |
| 1 | Olympia High School Bears 1 | 5.48 | 5.84 | 7–1 | 6.7 | +0.36 | 0.1 | 63% |
| 7 | Capital High School Cougars | 3.39 | 2.79 | 3–5 | 3.8 | −0.60 | 0.3 | 84% |
| 6 | Ballard High School Beavers | 3.54 | 2.68 | 3–5 | 4.2 | −0.85 | 0.6 | 90% |
| 5 | Gig Harbor High School Tides | 4.20 | 3.31 | 4–4 | 5.2 | −0.90 | 0.6 | 91% |
| 8 | Bainbridge High School Spartans 2 | 3.01 | 1.90 | 2–6 | 3.3 | −1.11 | 0.8 | 93% |
| 9 | Garfield High School Bulldogs | 2.54 | 0.57 | 1–7 | 2.9 | −1.97 | 1.9 | 98% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evan Glasgow | Olympia High School | -0.23 | 3.16 | 2–1 | 0.5 | +3.38 | 3.1 | 6% |
| Max Doane | Bainbridge High School | 1.25 | 3.61 | 6–2 | 2.9 | +2.36 | 3.9 | 2% |
| Zach Cooper | Bainbridge High School | 1.15 | 3.51 | 6–2 | 2.9 | +2.36 | 3.9 | 2% |
| Barret Lhamon | Bainbridge High School | 0.41 | 2.77 | 6–2 | 2.9 | +2.36 | 3.9 | 2% |
| Alden Mcgonagle | Roosevelt High School | 0.85 | 1.98 | 6–2 | 4.6 | +1.13 | 0.8 | 26% |
| Axel Stordahl | Gig Harbor High School | 2.08 | 1.19 | 4–4 | 5.2 | −0.90 | 0.6 | 91% |
| Dayne Hall | Gig Harbor High School | 1.82 | 0.93 | 4–4 | 5.2 | −0.90 | 0.6 | 91% |
| Carlos Rivas | Gig Harbor High School | -0.15 | -1.05 | 4–4 | 5.2 | −0.90 | 0.6 | 91% |
| Lindsay Campbell | Bainbridge High School | 1.14 | 0.03 | 2–6 | 3.3 | −1.11 | 0.8 | 93% |
| Dane Petrakis | Bainbridge High School | 1.40 | 0.29 | 2–6 | 3.3 | −1.11 | 0.8 | 93% |
| Gus Beer | Bainbridge High School | 0.42 | -0.69 | 2–6 | 3.3 | −1.11 | 0.8 | 93% |
| Annie Buelt | Capital High School | 1.72 | 0.46 | 2–5 | 3.5 | −1.26 | 1.0 | 94% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Tides | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 3-4-6 |
| 2 | |
Spartans 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bears 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Bears 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Spartans 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Rough Riders | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Cougars | 1-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Tides | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Beavers | 1-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Bears 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS |
| 7 | |
Cougars | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Spartans 1 | 2-3-6 |
| 8 | |
Rough Riders | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Spartans 2 | 3-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Bears 2 | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Tides | 2-4-5 |
| 10 | |
Bears 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Beavers | 4-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Spartans 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Spartans 1 | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Rough Riders | 2-4-6 |
| 13 | |
Bears 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bears 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Tides | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Cougars | 4-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Beavers | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Spartans 2 | 2-4-5 |
| 16 | |
Rough Riders | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 1-5-6 |
| 17 | |
Bears 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Cougars | 4-5-6 |
| 18 | |
Bears 2 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Spartans 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 19 | |
Spartans 1 | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Tides | 1-5-6 |
| 20 | |
Beavers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 3-4-5 |
| 21 | |
Spartans 2 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Cougars | 3-4-5 |
| 22 | |
Bears 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Spartans 1 | 3-4-6 |
| 23 | |
Bears 2 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 3-4-5 |
| 24 | |
Rough Riders | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Beavers | 3-4-5 |
| 25 | |
Spartans 1 | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Spartans 2 | 1-5-6 |
| 26 | |
Cougars | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 2-4-6 |
| 27 | |
Bears 2 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Beavers | 4-5-6 |
| 28 | |
Tides | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Rough Riders | 3-4-6 |
| 29 | |
Spartans 1 | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 1-4-6 |
| 30 | |
Beavers | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Cougars | 2-4-5 |
| 31 | |
Bears 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Tides | 3-5-6 |
| 32 | |
Rough Riders | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Bears 2 | 2-4-6 |
| 33 | |
Spartans 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Beavers | 3-4-6 |
| 34 | |
Spartans 2 | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Tides | 1-5-6 |
| 35 | |
Cougars | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bears 2 | 3-4-5 |
| 36 | |
Rough Riders | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Bears 1 | 2-5-6 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
