Gig Harbor High School '22
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.12 | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as crew 24–8 (75%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2019 | 3 | — | 19–8 |
| Fall 2018 | 1 | — | 5–0 |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 4 graded regattas (32 matches) the record is 24–8 against 21.4 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+2.6). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 5 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-04-27 | 2019 NWISA Team Race Championships | crew | 2.15 | 2.71 | 7–4 | 6.0 | +0.56 | 0.3 | 38% |
| 2019-04-06 | Portland Team Race | crew | 2.08 | 5.08 | 8–0 | 6.2 | ≥+3.00 | 2.9 | 10% |
| 2019-03-16 | Olympia Gold Team Race Regatta | crew | 2.08 | 1.19 | 4–4 | 5.2 | −0.90 | 0.6 | 91% |
| 2018-10-27 | Trick or Treat Team Race | crew | 1.05 | 4.05 | 5–0 | 4.0 | ≥+3.00 | 1.4 | 32% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Portland Team Race | Crew | TR | 8 | 100% | — |
| Olympia Gold Team Race Regatta | Crew | TR | 8 | 50% | — |
| 2019 NWISA Team Race Championships | Crew | TR | 12 | 67% | — |
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Trick or Treat Team Race | Crew | TR | 6 | 100% | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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