Capital High School '23
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.45 (fleet 0.76) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.02 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 8–13 (38%) as crew 2–4 (33%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2021 | 2 | 7–12 | — |
| Spring 2019 | 1 | 1–1 | 2–4 |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (25 matches) the record is 9–16 against 14.3 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−5.3). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 3 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 5 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-04-18 | Olympia Spring Team Race Regatta | skipper | -0.00 | -3.00 | 0–4 | 0.9 | ≤−3.00 | 1.3 | >99% |
| 2021-04-10 | Bainbridge Team Race - April 2021 | skipper | 0.04 | -1.51 | 7–8 | 10.7 | −1.56 | 3.3 | 99% |
| 2019-03-16 | Olympia Gold Team Race Regatta | crew | 0.51 | -0.25 | 2–4 | 2.8 | −0.76 | 0.3 | 86% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| Seafarer's Cup (RR#2) | Skipper | A | 7 | 15.6 | -0.92 |
| NWISA Ranking Regatta #3 | Skipper | A | 6 | 12.3 | -0.46 |
| NWISA Fleet Race District Championships | Skipper | A | 14 | 12.9 | 0.13 |
| Fall 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Fall Champs Gold | Skipper | A | 4 | 16.2 | -0.54 |
| 2023 Rose Bowl Regatta - HS Bronze | Skipper | A | 5 | 11.6 | 0.60 |
| Spring 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Seafarers Cup-GOLD | Skipper | B | 11 | 10.2 | 0.08 |
| NWISA Combined Division Silver | Skipper | A | 2 | 18.0 | — |
| Fall 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| WSC South Regionals | Skipper | B | 5 | 3.4 | 2.11 |
| SILVER - Rose Bowl 2022 | Skipper | B | 7 | 12.3 | 0.20 |
| 2021 NWISA Fall Champs - Gold Fleet | Skipper | A | 10 | 10.5 | 0.08 |
| Spring 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| Olympia Spring Scrimmage Silver | Skipper | A | 6 | 4.8 | 0.44 |
| Fall 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| NWISA Fall Championship | Skipper | B | 3 | 19.0 | -3.19 |
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Olympia Gold Team Race Regatta | Crew | TR | 8 | 38% | — |
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| NWISA: South Regional, Olympia | Skipper | B | 5 | 13.4 | -1.02 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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