| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Olympia High School | Bears 1 | 5–1 |
| 2 |  |
Bainbridge High School | Spartans 1 | 4–2 |
| 3 |  |
Lincoln High School - Portland, OR | Cardinals | 4–3 |
| 4 | |
Bainbridge High School | Spartans 2 | 1–4 |
| 5 | |
Olympia High School | Bears 2 | 1–5 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 7,233 team race matches sailed before 2021-04-18, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 5 of 6 matches (83%) with a log-loss of 0.611 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went poorly for the forecast. vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Olympia High School Bears 1 | 1 | 4.58 home +0.08 | Ella Hubbard / Finn Mcclure 1.88 Hatcher Cox / Charlie Snyder 1.06 Peter Kelleher / Levi Morse 0.64 2–0 Sam Bonauto / Daniel Roberts 2.41 1–1 | 85% | 3–1 (75%) | −0.4 |
| 3 | Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Cardinals | 2 | 2.27 school +0.32 | Peter Schnell / Charlotte Yesser 0.98 Kieran Banyard / Catie Harding 0.64 Everett Mcavoy / Annika Philips | 42% | 3–1 (75%) | +1.3 |
| 5 | Olympia High School Bears 2 | 3 | 1.42 home +0.08 | Avian De Keizer-Mendoza / Hannah Fritz -0.00 Ian Connolly / Fiona Murphy 0.79 Sophia Hubbard / Evan Glasgow 1.23 0–2 Robert Bloomfield / Nick Heelan -0.25 0–2 | 23% | 0–4 (0%) | −0.9 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Cardinals | 2.27 | 5.59 | 3–1 | 1.7 | +3.32 | 2.5 | 9% |
| 1 | Olympia High School Bears 1 | 4.58 | 3.75 | 3–1 | 3.4 | −0.84 | 0.2 | 89% |
| 5 | Olympia High School Bears 2 | 1.42 | -1.58 | 0–4 | 0.9 | ≤−3.00 | 1.3 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avian De Keizer-Mendoza | Olympia High School | -0.00 | -3.00 | 0–4 | 0.9 | ≤−3.00 | 1.3 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Rd | # | Winner | Loser | P(winner) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | Olympia High School Bears 1 | Olympia High School Bears 2 | 77% | |
| 1 | 4 | Olympia High School Bears 1 | Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Cardinals | 93% | |
| 1 | 10 | Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Cardinals | Olympia High School Bears 2 | 78% | |
| 2 | 11 | Olympia High School Bears 1 | Olympia High School Bears 2 | 77% | |
| 2 | 12 | Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Cardinals | Olympia High School Bears 1 | 8% | upset |
| 2 | 20 | Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Cardinals | Olympia High School Bears 2 | 78% |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Cardinals | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Spartans 1 | 1-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Bears 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bears 2 | 3-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Spartans 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Spartans 2 | 3-4-6 |
| 4 | |
Bears 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Cardinals | 4-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Spartans 1 | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Bears 2 | 2-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Spartans 2 | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Cardinals | 2-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Bears 1 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Spartans 1 | 3-4-5 |
| 8 | |
Bears 2 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Spartans 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Bears 1 | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Spartans 2 | 1-4-6 |
| 10 | |
Cardinals | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Bears 2 | 2-4-5 |
| 11 | |
Bears 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bears 2 | 3-4-6 |
| 12 | |
Cardinals | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bears 1 | 3-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Spartans 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bears 2 | 3-4-6 |
| 14 | |
Spartans 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Cardinals | 4-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Spartans 1 | def. | |
Spartans 2 | ||
| 16 | |
Spartans 1 | def. | |
Bears 1 | ||
| 17 | |
Cardinals | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Spartans 2 | 3-5-6 |
| 18 | |
Spartans 2 | def. | |
Bears 1 | ||
| 19 | |
Spartans 2 | def. | |
Bears 2 | ||
| 20 | |
Cardinals | def. | |
Bears 2 | ||
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Olympia High School | Bears 1 | Charlie Snyder '24 Ella Hubbard '22 Hatcher Cox '21 Peter Kelleher '22 Sam Bonauto '21 |
Hatcher Cox '21 Finn Mcclure '23 Charlie Snyder '24 Levi Morse '24 Daniel Roberts '24 |
|
Lincoln High School - Portland, OR | Cardinals | Everett Mcavoy '21 Kieran Banyard '23 Peter Schnell '22 |
Annika Philips '21 Catie Harding '21 Charlotte Yesser '22 |
|
Olympia High School | Bears 2 | Avian De Keizer-Mendoza '23 Ian Connolly '21 Robert Bloomfield '22 Sophia Hubbard '24 |
Hannah Fritz '22 Fiona Murphy '21 Nick Heelan '22 Evan Glasgow '22 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
