Port Townsend Open

HostPort Townsend high
Date05/12/2018
TypePromotional
BoatCFJ
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Bainbridge High School	Spartans 3	24	13	37
2	Ballard High School	Beavers	29	27	56
3	Bainbridge High School	Spartans 2	33	26	59
4	Bainbridge High School	Spartans 1	18	51	69
5	Oak Harbor High School	Wildcats 1	33	40	73
6	Nathan Hale High School	Raiders	45	48	93
7	Inglemoor High School	Vikings	74	45	119
8	Central Kitsap High School	Cougars 2	74	61	135
9	Oak Harbor High School	Wildcats 2	61	84	145
10	Lycee Francais de Chicago	Red Hawks	69	80	149
11	Central Kitsap High School	Cougars 1	78	73	151
12	Seattle Academy of Arts & Sciences	Cardinals	81	73	154
13	Anacortes High School	Seahawks 1	56	100	156
14	Central Kitsap High School	Cougars 3	77	98	175
15	Port Angeles High School	Roughriders	106	75	181
16	North Kitsap High School	Dogfish	103	81	184
17	Anacortes High School	Seahawks 2	110	97	207

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	TOT	Sailors
Bainbridge High School	Spartans 1	1	7	3	1	2	3	1	18	Arianna Fiore '21 Anna Sherry '19
Bainbridge High School	Spartans 3	3	1	2	4	7	2	5	24	Sophia Kasper '18 Hunter Johnston '20
Ballard High School	Beavers	4	2	10	6	3	1	3	29	Erik Anderson '21 Seth Aldrich '21
Oak Harbor High School	Wildcats 1	2	5	5	5	4	6	6	33	Jordan Wood-Pina '18 Aiden Wright '21
Bainbridge High School	Spartans 2	7	9	1	2	1	11	2	33	Zach Cooper '20 Anna Schroeder '19
Nathan Hale High School	Raiders	9	6	4	3	6	8	9	45	Reilly Hearne '18 Everett Rendon '21
Anacortes High School	Seahawks 1	8	3	13	10	10	5	7	56	No Show No Show
Oak Harbor High School	Wildcats 2	6	4	16	9	9	9	8	61	Thomas Buys '22 Liam Chapman '22
Lycee Francais de Chicago	Red Hawks	5	13	8	12	11	16	4	69	Luca Gesinger '20 [1-7] Henry Stier '19 [1-2, 7] Rowan Frederickson '21 [3-4] Jenna Hiegel '21 [5-6]
Central Kitsap High School	Cougars 2	13	11	12	7	13	7	11	74	Claire Jablonski '19 [1-7] Kyra Bowlby '19 [1-2, 5-6] Jack West '20 [3-4, 7]
Inglemoor High School	Vikings	14	12	7	15	12	4	10	74	Alden Mcgonagle '21 Johnny Satterlee '19
Central Kitsap High School	Cougars 3	12	16	6	8	8	10	17	77	Cormac Burke '22 [1-6] Travis Bouck '20 [7] Travis Bouck '20 [1-6] Cormac Burke '22 [7]
Central Kitsap High School	Cougars 1	10	10	9	14	5	14	16	78	Becca Sharpe '18 [1-4] Niko Twilla '18 [5-6] Annelisa Ayars '20 [7] Niko Twilla '18 [1-4, 7] Jack West '20 [5-6]
Seattle Academy of Arts & Sciences	Cardinals	11	8	11	11	14	12	14	81	No Show No Show
North Kitsap High School	Dogfish	17	17	14	13	16	13	13	103	No Show No Show
Port Angeles High School	Roughriders	15	14	15	16	17	17	12	106	Ozzy Minard '23 [1-4] Nathan Grundmeier '19 [5-7] Fern Knobel '23 [1-4] Rowan Frederickson '21 [5-7]
Anacortes High School	Seahawks 2	16	15	17	17	15	15	15	110	No Show No Show

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	TOT	Sailors
Bainbridge High School	Spartans 3	1	3	1	1	1	2	4	13	Lindsay Campbell '20 Gus Beer '19
Bainbridge High School	Spartans 2	2	2	4	2	3	10	3	26	Max Doane '20 Noah Maher '19
Ballard High School	Beavers	5	6	8	4	2	1	1	27	Catie Vandervort '22 Nate Walgren '18
Oak Harbor High School	Wildcats 1	4	1	3	9	10	11	2	40	Jenny Danielson '20 Willa Weinsheimer '20
Inglemoor High School	Vikings	10	4	2	5	8	6	10	45	Zach Liang '18 Tian Marchello '20
Nathan Hale High School	Raiders	3	11	6	6	9	5	8	48	Anna Wohnoutka '18 Ella Barnard '20
Bainbridge High School	Spartans 1	12	12	5	3	6	7	6	51	Banning Jones '19 Jack Bennett '21
Central Kitsap High School	Cougars 2	14	16	7	10	5	4	5	61	Andre Alvarado '20 Erik Garrett '22
Central Kitsap High School	Cougars 1	6	5	13	7	15	12	15	73	Tyler Nolasco '19 [1-2] Annelisa Ayars '20 [3-4] Becca Sharpe '18 [5-7] Annelisa Ayars '20 [1-2] Tyler Nolasco '19 [3-7]
Seattle Academy of Arts & Sciences	Cardinals	11	8	9	12	11	15	7	73	No Show No Show
Port Angeles High School	Roughriders	9	9	11	11	7	16	12	75	Chance Bates '21 [1-2, 5-6] Mary '21 [3-4, 7] Mary '21 [1-2, 5-6] Chance Bates '21 [3-4, 7]
Lycee Francais de Chicago	Red Hawks	7	7	10	13	17	17	9	80	Anna Wilke '19 [1-7] Jenna Hiegel '21 [1-2, 5-7] Henry Stier '19 [3-4]
North Kitsap High School	Dogfish	8	17	14	14	4	13	11	81	No Show No Show
Oak Harbor High School	Wildcats 2	13	13	12	8	16	8	14	84	Cody Kmecheck '18 Cooper Billiter '22
Anacortes High School	Seahawks 2	17	15	16	15	12	9	13	97	No Show No Show
Central Kitsap High School	Cougars 3	16	14	DNF	17	13	3	17	98	Jeffrey Scholfield '23 [1-3, 5-7] Shea Kuligowski '19 [4] Shea Kuligowski '19 [1-3, 5-7] Kyra Bowlby '19 [4]
Anacortes High School	Seahawks 1	15	10	15	16	14	14	16	100	No Show No Show

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.120+0.12

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2018 (1 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A	7A
Anacortes High School Seahawks 1	99	99	33	33	37	37	126
Anacortes High School Seahawks 2	100	100	34	34	63	63	127
Bainbridge High School Spartans 1	33	33	37	37	126	126	61
Bainbridge High School Spartans 2	34	34	63	63	127	127	12
Bainbridge High School Spartans 3	37	37	126	126	61	61	11
Ballard High School Beavers	63	63	127	127	12	12	98
Central Kitsap High School Cougars 1	126	126	61	61	11	11	45
Central Kitsap High School Cougars 2	127	127	12	12	98	98	44
Central Kitsap High School Cougars 3	61	61	11	11	45	45	65
Inglemoor High School Vikings	12	12	98	98	44	44	64
Lycee Francais de Chicago Red Hawks	64	64	99	99	33	33	37
Nathan Hale High School Raiders	11	11	45	45	65	65	62
North Kitsap High School Dogfish	98	98	44	44	64	64	99
Oak Harbor High School Wildcats 1	45	45	65	65	62	62	100
Oak Harbor High School Wildcats 2	44	44	64	64	99	99	33
Port Angeles High School Roughriders	65	65	62	62	100	100	34
Seattle Academy of Arts & Sciences Cardinals	62	62	100	100	34	34	63

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B	7B
Anacortes High School Seahawks 1	100	100	34	34	63	63	127
Anacortes High School Seahawks 2	33	33	37	37	126	126	61
Bainbridge High School Spartans 1	34	34	63	63	127	127	12
Bainbridge High School Spartans 2	37	37	126	126	61	61	11
Bainbridge High School Spartans 3	63	63	127	127	12	12	98
Ballard High School Beavers	126	126	61	61	11	11	45
Central Kitsap High School Cougars 1	127	127	12	12	98	98	44
Central Kitsap High School Cougars 2	61	61	11	11	45	45	65
Central Kitsap High School Cougars 3	12	12	98	98	44	44	64
Inglemoor High School Vikings	11	11	45	45	65	65	62
Lycee Francais de Chicago Red Hawks	62	62	100	100	34	34	63
Nathan Hale High School Raiders	98	98	44	44	64	64	99
North Kitsap High School Dogfish	45	45	65	65	62	62	100
Oak Harbor High School Wildcats 1	44	44	64	64	99	99	33
Oak Harbor High School Wildcats 2	65	65	62	62	100	100	34
Port Angeles High School Roughriders	64	64	99	99	33	33	37
Seattle Academy of Arts & Sciences Cardinals	99	99	33	33	37	37	126

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Anacortes High School	No Show	No Show
Seahawks 1	No Show	No Show
Anacortes High School	No Show	No Show
Seahawks 2	No Show	No Show
Bainbridge High School	Arianna Fiore '21	Anna Sherry '19
Spartans 1	Banning Jones '19	Jack Bennett '21
Bainbridge High School	Zach Cooper '20	Anna Schroeder '19
Spartans 2	Max Doane '20	Noah Maher '19
Bainbridge High School	Sophia Kasper '18	Hunter Johnston '20
Spartans 3	Lindsay Campbell '20	Gus Beer '19
Ballard High School	Erik Anderson '21	Seth Aldrich '21
Beavers	Catie Vandervort '22	Nate Walgren '18
Central Kitsap High School	Becca Sharpe '18 [1-4] Niko Twilla '18 [5-6] Annelisa Ayars '20 [7]	Niko Twilla '18 [1-4, 7] Jack West '20 [5-6]
Cougars 1	Tyler Nolasco '19 [1-2] Annelisa Ayars '20 [3-4] Becca Sharpe '18 [5-7]	Annelisa Ayars '20 [1-2] Tyler Nolasco '19 [3-7]
Central Kitsap High School	Claire Jablonski '19 [1-7]	Kyra Bowlby '19 [1-2, 5-6] Jack West '20 [3-4, 7]
Cougars 2	Andre Alvarado '20	Erik Garrett '22
Central Kitsap High School	Cormac Burke '22 [1-6] Travis Bouck '20 [7]	Travis Bouck '20 [1-6] Cormac Burke '22 [7]
Cougars 3	Jeffrey Scholfield '23 [1-3, 5-7] Shea Kuligowski '19 [4]	Shea Kuligowski '19 [1-3, 5-7] Kyra Bowlby '19 [4]
Inglemoor High School	Alden Mcgonagle '21	Johnny Satterlee '19
Vikings	Zach Liang '18	Tian Marchello '20
Lycee Francais de Chicago	Luca Gesinger '20 [1-7]	Henry Stier '19 [1-2, 7] Rowan Frederickson '21 [3-4] Jenna Hiegel '21 [5-6]
Red Hawks	Anna Wilke '19 [1-7]	Jenna Hiegel '21 [1-2, 5-7] Henry Stier '19 [3-4]
Nathan Hale High School	Reilly Hearne '18	Everett Rendon '21
Raiders	Anna Wohnoutka '18	Ella Barnard '20
North Kitsap High School	No Show	No Show
Dogfish	No Show	No Show
Oak Harbor High School	Jordan Wood-Pina '18	Aiden Wright '21
Wildcats 1	Jenny Danielson '20	Willa Weinsheimer '20
Oak Harbor High School	Thomas Buys '22	Liam Chapman '22
Wildcats 2	Cody Kmecheck '18	Cooper Billiter '22
Port Angeles High School	Ozzy Minard '23 [1-4] Nathan Grundmeier '19 [5-7]	Fern Knobel '23 [1-4] Rowan Frederickson '21 [5-7]
Roughriders	Chance Bates '21 [1-2, 5-6] Mary '21 [3-4, 7]	Mary '21 [1-2, 5-6] Chance Bates '21 [3-4, 7]
Seattle Academy of Arts & Sciences	No Show	No Show
Cardinals	No Show	No Show

Conditions — 05/12/2018 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 70% · Pressure 1019.3 hPa

Temperature

60°F

↑ 64°F ↓ 55°F

Feels like 57°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

9.5 kn

avg · max 10.7 kn

Gusts to 24.9 kn

From NW (325°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover13% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity70% Pressure1019.3 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: N 10 kn (scorer’s report)

In this breeze at Port Townsend high: a typical day (−0.00)

Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.

Fleet adjustment +0.07 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.07

Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.09 ± 0.14)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.00 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Port Townsend high by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 1 labelled days at Port Townsend high, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

Navigate

Menu