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# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Mercer Island High School Mercer Island High School Islanders 2 18 24 42
2 Bears Bears Bears 20 26 46
3 Mercer Island High School Mercer Island High School Islanders 1 34 23 57
4 Lycee Francais de Chicago Lycee Francais de Chicago Red Hawks 49 20 69
5 Bellingham High School Bellingham High School Raiders 22 51 73
6 Capital Varsity Capital Varsity Capital Varsity 56 27 83
7 Nathan Hale High School Nathan Hale High School Raiders 36 56 92
8 Sehome High School Sehome High School Mariners 46 50 96
9 Tumwater Tumwater Tumwater 54 60 114
10 Roosevelt High School Roosevelt High School Rough Riders 45 73 118
11 Ingraham High School Ingraham High School Rams 60 59 119
12 Varsity Varsity Varsity 74 46 120
13 Dogfish Dogfish Dogfish 78 55 133
14 Gig Harbor High School Gig Harbor High School Tides 63 70 133
15 Seagulls Seagulls Seagulls 66 80 146
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Mercer Island High School Mercer Island High School Islanders 2 1 3 4 5 4 1 18
Bears Bears Bears 5 1 6 2 2 4 20
Bellingham High School Bellingham High School Raiders 4 4 2 4 3 5 22 Hannah Roy '17 [1-6]
Natalie Werner '23 [1, 3-6]
Max Suwarno '22 [2]
Mercer Island High School Mercer Island High School Islanders 1 6 6 3 7 5 7 34 Justin Skene '20
Nathan Hale High School Nathan Hale High School Raiders 7 10 1 1 9 8 36 Margot Watts '19 [1-6]
Anna Foss '20 [1-2]
Colette Royer '18 [3-6]
Roosevelt High School Roosevelt High School Rough Riders 8 15 7 8 1 6 45 Miles Williams '20
David Lu '20
Sehome High School Sehome High School Mariners 3 14 8 6 6 9 46 Lera Anders '23 [1-6]
Peyton Nienaber '23 [1, 3-6]
Chai Spelchake '18 [2]
Lycee Francais de Chicago Lycee Francais de Chicago Red Hawks 13 2 9 14 8 3 49 Alejandro Montanez '17
Henry Stier '19
Tumwater Tumwater Tumwater 14 7 10 3 7 13 54
Capital Varsity Capital Varsity Capital Varsity 12 5 DSQ 11 10 2 56
Ingraham High School Ingraham High School Rams 2 9 14 10 11 14 60 Marijke Jorna '16 [1-2]
Van Senseney '19 [3-6]
Van Senseney '19 [1-2]
Marijke Jorna '16 [3-4]
Bridget Boyle '18 [5-6]
Gig Harbor High School Gig Harbor High School Tides 15 12 5 9 12 10 63 Howeiler Will '20
Ryalls Peter '19
Seagulls Seagulls Seagulls 9 8 12 12 13 12 66
Varsity Varsity Varsity 10 13 11 15 14 11 74
Dogfish Dogfish Dogfish 11 11 13 13 15 15 78
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Lycee Francais de Chicago Lycee Francais de Chicago Red Hawks 10 3 2 2 1 2 20 Jack Gibbons '20
Anna Wilke '19
Mercer Island High School Mercer Island High School Islanders 1 1 8 4 1 2 7 23 Megan Skene '17
Mercer Island High School Mercer Island High School Islanders 2 2 4 9 5 3 1 24
Bears Bears Bears 4 1 5 4 7 5 26
Capital Varsity Capital Varsity Capital Varsity 7 9 1 3 4 3 27
Varsity Varsity Varsity 8 2 3 12 12 9 46
Sehome High School Sehome High School Mariners 6 5 13 6 6 14 50 Maia Ketteridge '17 [1-6]
Mallory Hood '23 [1, 3-6]
Natalie Serbousek '22 [2]
Bellingham High School Bellingham High School Raiders 3 14 11 7 8 8 51 Jacob Finston '23 [1-6]
No Show [1, 3-6]
Alejandro Ponce '23 [2]
Dogfish Dogfish Dogfish 5 6 10 11 11 12 55
Nathan Hale High School Nathan Hale High School Raiders 9 10 7 8 9 13 56 Reilly Hearne '18
Anna Wohnoutka '18
Ingraham High School Ingraham High School Rams 14 13 6 10 5 11 59 Luca Fallows '18
Tumwater Tumwater Tumwater 15 7 8 9 15 6 60
Gig Harbor High School Gig Harbor High School Tides 12 15 14 15 10 4 70 Ripley Morris '19
O'Mara Kilian '19
Roosevelt High School Roosevelt High School Rough Riders 13 11 12 14 13 10 73 Will Basinski '21
Sam Kimmel '20
Seagulls Seagulls Seagulls 11 12 15 13 14 15 80
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.070+0.07
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2017 (1 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A
Bellingham High SchoolBellingham High School Raiders12621262
Capital VarsityCapital Varsity Capital Varsity12621262
SeagullsSeagulls Seagulls12621262
Lycee Francais de ChicagoLycee Francais de Chicago Red Hawks7777
DogfishDogfish Dogfish7777
BearsBears Bears7777

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B
SeagullsSeagulls Seagulls7777
Gig Harbor High SchoolGig Harbor High School Tides7777
Ingraham High SchoolIngraham High School Rams7777
Nathan Hale High SchoolNathan Hale High School Raiders12621262
DogfishDogfish Dogfish12621262
BearsBears Bears12621262
School / Team SkipperCrew
Bellingham High School Bellingham High School Hannah Roy '17 [1-6] Natalie Werner '23 [1, 3-6]
Max Suwarno '22 [2]
Raiders Jacob Finston '23 [1-6] No Show [1, 3-6]
Alejandro Ponce '23 [2]
Gig Harbor High School Gig Harbor High School Howeiler Will '20 Ryalls Peter '19
Tides Ripley Morris '19 O'Mara Kilian '19
Ingraham High School Ingraham High School Marijke Jorna '16 [1-2]
Van Senseney '19 [3-6]		 Van Senseney '19 [1-2]
Marijke Jorna '16 [3-4]
Bridget Boyle '18 [5-6]
Rams Luca Fallows '18
Lycee Francais de Chicago Lycee Francais de Chicago Alejandro Montanez '17 Henry Stier '19
Red Hawks Jack Gibbons '20 Anna Wilke '19
Mercer Island High School Mercer Island High School Justin Skene '20
Islanders 1 Megan Skene '17
Nathan Hale High School Nathan Hale High School Margot Watts '19 [1-6] Anna Foss '20 [1-2]
Colette Royer '18 [3-6]
Raiders Reilly Hearne '18 Anna Wohnoutka '18
Roosevelt High School Roosevelt High School Miles Williams '20 David Lu '20
Rough Riders Will Basinski '21 Sam Kimmel '20
Sehome High School Sehome High School Lera Anders '23 [1-6] Peyton Nienaber '23 [1, 3-6]
Chai Spelchake '18 [2]
Mariners Maia Ketteridge '17 [1-6] Mallory Hood '23 [1, 3-6]
Natalie Serbousek '22 [2]

Conditions — 04/01/2017 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 82%  ·  Pressure 1023.2 hPa

Temperature

50°F
↑ 54°F   ↓ 45°F
Feels like 46°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
4.8 kn
avg  ·  max 8.0 kn
Gusts to 17.3 kn
From SSW (211°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine3.4 hrs Humidity82% Pressure1023.2 hPa Rain0.04 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SW 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Mercer Island: a typical day (−0.01)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment +0.10 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.10
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.15 ± 0.30)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Mercer Island by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (no labelled days at Mercer Island: the all-venue pattern is shown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →