Rose Bowl 2018 - HS Bronze

HostUS Sailing Center - Long Beach
Date01/06/2018
TypePromotional
BoatCFJ
Scoring2 Divisions

#		School	Team	A	B	TOT
1		Capital High School	Capital Varsity	43	19	62
2		New Trier HS	Trevian	72	22	94
3		Sage Hill School	Lightning	63	50	113
4		Olympia High School	Bears	87	33	120
5		International HS - SF	Jaguars	77	64	141
6		College Park High School	Falcons	53	94	147
7		Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks	83	72	155
8		San Francisco University High School	Red Devils	41	115	156
9		Santa Monica High School	Vikings 2	43	115	158
10		Mater Dei High School	Monarchs	102	74	176
11		La Jolla High School	Vikings	117 MRP	69 MRP	186 MRP
12		Campolindo High School	Cougars	55	137	192
13		Santa Monica High School	Vikings 1	90	121	211
14		Triton	Triton	120 MRP	97 MRP	217 MRP
15	$Sato Academy of Mathematics and Science$	Sato Academy of Mathematics and Science	Ryūj Dragon	91	135	226
16		Design Tech High School	d.tech 2	117	115	232
17		Berkeley High School	Yellowjackets	127	115	242
18		Lynbrook High School	Vikings	121	125	246
19		Design Tech High School	d.tech 1	131	115	246
20		Convent and Stuart Hall High Schools	Cubs	141	108	249
21		Cathedral Catholic High School	Dons	142	141	283
22		Torrey Pines High School	Falcons 2	163	161	324
23		Torrey Pines High School	Falcons 1	174	173	347

	School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	TOT	Sailors
	San Francisco University High School	Red Devils	1	10	4	2	4	1	12	7	41	Micherice Tao '19 Brian Kirz '18
	Santa Monica High School	Vikings 2	4	1	1	3	5	15	8	6	43	Nicholas Jensen '20 Sam Miller '20
	Capital High School	Capital Varsity	8	5	5	1	9	4	1	10	43	Annie Buelt '20 [1-8] Caroline Hurley '20 [1-2, 7-8] Ann Li '20 [3-6]
	College Park High School	Falcons	7	4	10	8	7	2	11	4	53	Zack Taylor '19 Jake Botting '21
	Campolindo High School	Cougars	21	13	6	5	1	5	2	2	55	Ryter Ullrich '18 Derek Nelson '18
	Sage Hill School	Lightning	2	6	9	6	17	10	4	9	63	Darcy Chung '20 Aiden Arvizu '20
	New Trier HS	Trevian	3	21	3	9	6	3	16	11	72	Garrett Cook '20 Alex Adams '20
	International HS - SF	Jaguars	13	3	11	12	3	12	6	17	77	Alexander Kasolas '22 Amelia Nugent '21
	Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks	12	9	20	18	11	9	3	1	83	Emma Figueredo '19 Emma Jones '18
	Olympia High School	Bears	6	12	12	10	10	7	14	16	87	Erin Pamplin '20 Macy Bergford '18
	Santa Monica High School	Vikings 1	11	17	7	7	15	20	5	8	90	Jack Zemke '21 Shai Skikne '20
$Sato Academy of Mathematics and Science$	Sato Academy of Mathematics and Science	Ryūj Dragon	18	2	8	4	16	13	18	12	91	Nikhil Stewart '21 Diego Lockyer '21
	Mater Dei High School	Monarchs	16	11	14	16	14	16	10	5	102	Samuel Bigelow '19 Sully Manning '19
	La Jolla High School	Vikings	5	19	17	13	8	11	21	3	117 MRP	Loren Behumi-Davis '19 [1-4] Josephine Passananti '18 [5-8] Tyler Cockrell '19 [1-8]
	Design Tech High School	d.tech 2	14	20	15	11	18	19	7	13	117	Timmy Gee '20 Teddy Knobel '21
	Triton	Triton	22	16	2	DSQ	2	6	13	15	120 MRP
	Lynbrook High School	Vikings	19	7	13	14	12	21	17	18	121	Andrew Zheng '19 Eric Zhang '19
	Berkeley High School	Yellowjackets	9	15	19	17	22	17	9	19	127	Lucien Canvinet '20 Anjolie Enz '21
	Design Tech High School	d.tech 1	20	22	16	15	13	8	15	22	131	Tanner Gee '18 Kieran Elrod '21
	Convent and Stuart Hall High Schools	Cubs	15	14	21	19	21	18	19	14	141	Alexander Nunez '20 Dennis O'Donnell '20
	Cathedral Catholic High School	Dons	17	8	18	20	23	14	22	20	142	Megan Saenz '18 [1-5] Calista Oliveira '19 [6] Ryan Oliveira '21 [7-8] Ryan Oliveira '21 [1-6] Calista Oliveira '19 [7-8]
	Torrey Pines High School	Falcons 2	10	18	23	21	20	DNF	23	DNF	163	Marcos Altbaum '19 [1-3, 5-8] Maddie Biemiller '20 [4] Ku Yoshitomi '19 [1-2, 5-8] Alex Day '20 [3-4]
	Torrey Pines High School	Falcons 1	23	23	22	22	19	DNF	20	21	174	Bryson Dort '19 [1-3, 5-8] Campbell Biemiller '20 [4] Katherine Shofran '19 [1-3, 5-8] Arda Ulug '19 [4]

	School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	TOT	Sailors
	Capital High School	Capital Varsity	1	1	5	2	4	3	2	1	19	Joy Brennan '20 Zachary Cowan '20
	New Trier HS	Trevian	2	4	2	1	2	2	5	4	22	Ted Lutton '20 Nick Leamon '20
	Olympia High School	Bears	5	2	3	7	5	5	3	3	33	Kevin Hicks '19 Ciara Mcclanahan '19
	Sage Hill School	Lightning	15	6	1	3	6	1	11	7	50	Joshua Cheadle '19 Yegor Polakoff '20
	International HS - SF	Jaguars	8	9	6	16	10	4	9	2	64	Sabrina Simon '21 Josie Galvin '21
	La Jolla High School	Vikings	4	7	4	4	7	11	4	8	69 MRP	Liam Brinton '18 Joyce Passananti '18
	Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks	13	11	14	10	1	7	1	15	72	Christian Rodriguez '18 [1-2, 7-8] Joshua Holzer '20 [3-6] Alexis Defjen-Creson '19 [1-8]
	Mater Dei High School	Monarchs	6	3	11	15	9	8	17	5	74	Gretchen Hohenstein '20 Teresa Dang '20
	College Park High School	Falcons	7	8	9	14	8	16	18	14	94	Nate Holden '21 Jack Holden '22
	Triton	Triton	3	15	13	9	3	10	7	17	97 MRP
	Convent and Stuart Hall High Schools	Cubs	16	16	16	13	15	9	10	13	108	Miles Raneri '21 [1-2, 5-8] Nadia Gibbons '21 [3-4] Nadia Gibbons '21 [1-2, 7-8] Jack Cady '21 [3-6]
	Design Tech High School	d.tech 1	9	13	12	8	RDG	13	DNF	DNF	115	Michael Mcculloch '21 Madelyn Blessinger '19
	Design Tech High School	d.tech 2	10	10	21	17	11	6	20	20	115	Jasper Bull '20 [1-2, 5-6] Erez Harel '20 [3-4, 7-8] Joss Ettrick '21 [1-2, 5-6]
	San Francisco University High School	Red Devils	11	14	8	21	17	DNF	8	12	115	Anson Walker '21 Marco Jacimovic '20
	Santa Monica High School	Vikings 2	14	5	7	11	DNF	17	16	21	115	Ginger Moore '20 Casper Jensen '20
	Berkeley High School	Yellowjackets	20	17	15	5	14	DNF	14	6	115	Michael Mannik '21 [1-8] Eli Kelley '20 [1-2, 5-6] Richard Padmore '20 [3-4, 7-8]
	Santa Monica High School	Vikings 1	21	19	10	6	16	18	21	10	121	Olivia Pritkin '17 Greg Lee '20
	Lynbrook High School	Vikings	12	12	17	18	DNF	14	12	16	125	Michael Zheng '19 Andrew Tu '21
$Sato Academy of Mathematics and Science$	Sato Academy of Mathematics and Science	Ryūj Dragon	19	22	20	20	DNF	15	6	9	135	Dextin Sparrevohn '19 [1-4] Elisabeth Rossbach '21 [5-8] Troy Davidson '20 [1-8]
	Campolindo High School	Cougars	22	21	18	12	13	19	13	19	137	Ronald Hohnsbeen '21 [1-2] Carla Leone '20 [3-8] Carla Leone '20 [1-2] Ronald Hohnsbeen '21 [3-8]
	Cathedral Catholic High School	Dons	18	18	19	19	18	12	19	18	141	Alexander Woodmansee '20 Max Roman '21
	Torrey Pines High School	Falcons 2	DNF	DNF	22	22	19	DNF	15	11	161	Velasco Alexita '19 Derek Fu '18
	Torrey Pines High School	Falcons 1	17	20	23	23	DNF	20	DNF	22	173	Katherine Shofran '19 [1, 3-8] Egorov Eugene '18 [2] Loren Sim '19 [1-2, 4-8] Arda Ulug '19 [3]

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.130+0.13

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2014 (3 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

	Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A	7A	8A
	Berkeley High School Yellowjackets	31	31	33	33	35	35	37	37
	Campolindo High School Cougars	32	32	34	34	36	36	38	38
	Capital High School Capital Varsity	33	33	35	35	37	37
	Cathedral Catholic High School Dons	34	34	36	36	38	38
	College Park High School Falcons	35	35	37	37
	Convent and Stuart Hall High Schools Cubs	36	36	38	38
	Design Tech High School d.tech 1	37	37
	Design Tech High School d.tech 2	38	38
	Santa Monica High School Vikings 1							31	31
	Santa Monica High School Vikings 2							32	32
$Sato Academy of Mathematics and Science$	Sato Academy of Mathematics and Science Ryūj Dragon					31	31	33	33
	Tamalpais High School Red Tailed Hawks					32	32	34	34
	Torrey Pines High School Falcons 1			31	31	33	33	35	35
	Torrey Pines High School Falcons 2			32	32	34	34	36	36

Division B

	Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B	7B	8B
	Berkeley High School Yellowjackets	32	32	34	34	36	36	38	38
	Campolindo High School Cougars	33	33	35	35	37	37
	Capital High School Capital Varsity	34	34	36	36	38	38
	Cathedral Catholic High School Dons	35	35	37	37
	College Park High School Falcons	36	36	38	38
	Convent and Stuart Hall High Schools Cubs	37	37
	Design Tech High School d.tech 1	38	38
	Santa Monica High School Vikings 1							32	32
	Santa Monica High School Vikings 2					31	31	33	33
$Sato Academy of Mathematics and Science$	Sato Academy of Mathematics and Science Ryūj Dragon					32	32	34	34
	San Francisco University High School Red Devils							31	31
	Tamalpais High School Red Tailed Hawks			31	31	33	33	35	35
	Torrey Pines High School Falcons 1			32	32	34	34	36	36
	Torrey Pines High School Falcons 2	31	31	33	33	35	35	37	37

	School / Team	Skipper	Crew
	Berkeley High School	Lucien Canvinet '20	Anjolie Enz '21
	Yellowjackets	Michael Mannik '21 [1-8]	Eli Kelley '20 [1-2, 5-6] Richard Padmore '20 [3-4, 7-8]
	Campolindo High School	Ryter Ullrich '18	Derek Nelson '18
	Cougars	Ronald Hohnsbeen '21 [1-2] Carla Leone '20 [3-8]	Carla Leone '20 [1-2] Ronald Hohnsbeen '21 [3-8]
	Capital High School	Annie Buelt '20 [1-8]	Caroline Hurley '20 [1-2, 7-8] Ann Li '20 [3-6]
	Capital Varsity	Joy Brennan '20	Zachary Cowan '20
	Cathedral Catholic High School	Megan Saenz '18 [1-5] Calista Oliveira '19 [6] Ryan Oliveira '21 [7-8]	Ryan Oliveira '21 [1-6] Calista Oliveira '19 [7-8]
	Dons	Alexander Woodmansee '20	Max Roman '21
	College Park High School	Zack Taylor '19	Jake Botting '21
	Falcons	Nate Holden '21	Jack Holden '22
	Convent and Stuart Hall High Schools	Alexander Nunez '20	Dennis O'Donnell '20
	Cubs	Miles Raneri '21 [1-2, 5-8] Nadia Gibbons '21 [3-4]	Nadia Gibbons '21 [1-2, 7-8] Jack Cady '21 [3-6]
	Design Tech High School	Tanner Gee '18	Kieran Elrod '21
	d.tech 1	Michael Mcculloch '21	Madelyn Blessinger '19
	Design Tech High School	Timmy Gee '20	Teddy Knobel '21
	d.tech 2	Jasper Bull '20 [1-2, 5-6] Erez Harel '20 [3-4, 7-8]	Joss Ettrick '21 [1-2, 5-6]
	International HS - SF	Alexander Kasolas '22	Amelia Nugent '21
	Jaguars	Sabrina Simon '21	Josie Galvin '21
	La Jolla High School	Loren Behumi-Davis '19 [1-4] Josephine Passananti '18 [5-8]	Tyler Cockrell '19 [1-8]
	Vikings	Liam Brinton '18	Joyce Passananti '18
	Lynbrook High School	Andrew Zheng '19	Eric Zhang '19
	Vikings	Michael Zheng '19	Andrew Tu '21
	Mater Dei High School	Samuel Bigelow '19	Sully Manning '19
	Monarchs	Gretchen Hohenstein '20	Teresa Dang '20
	New Trier HS	Garrett Cook '20	Alex Adams '20
	Trevian	Ted Lutton '20	Nick Leamon '20
	Olympia High School	Erin Pamplin '20	Macy Bergford '18
	Bears	Kevin Hicks '19	Ciara Mcclanahan '19
	Sage Hill School	Darcy Chung '20	Aiden Arvizu '20
	Lightning	Joshua Cheadle '19	Yegor Polakoff '20
	San Francisco University High School	Micherice Tao '19	Brian Kirz '18
	Red Devils	Anson Walker '21	Marco Jacimovic '20
	Santa Monica High School	Jack Zemke '21	Shai Skikne '20
	Vikings 1	Olivia Pritkin '17	Greg Lee '20
	Santa Monica High School	Nicholas Jensen '20	Sam Miller '20
	Vikings 2	Ginger Moore '20	Casper Jensen '20
$Sato Academy of Mathematics and Science$	Sato Academy of Mathematics and Science	Nikhil Stewart '21	Diego Lockyer '21
$Sato Academy of Mathematics and Science$	Ryūj Dragon	Dextin Sparrevohn '19 [1-4] Elisabeth Rossbach '21 [5-8]	Troy Davidson '20 [1-8]
	Tamalpais High School	Emma Figueredo '19	Emma Jones '18
	Red Tailed Hawks	Christian Rodriguez '18 [1-2, 7-8] Joshua Holzer '20 [3-6]	Alexis Defjen-Creson '19 [1-8]
	Torrey Pines High School	Bryson Dort '19 [1-3, 5-8] Campbell Biemiller '20 [4]	Katherine Shofran '19 [1-3, 5-8] Arda Ulug '19 [4]
	Falcons 1	Katherine Shofran '19 [1, 3-8] Egorov Eugene '18 [2]	Loren Sim '19 [1-2, 4-8] Arda Ulug '19 [3]
	Torrey Pines High School	Marcos Altbaum '19 [1-3, 5-8] Maddie Biemiller '20 [4]	Ku Yoshitomi '19 [1-2, 5-8] Alex Day '20 [3-4]
	Falcons 2	Velasco Alexita '19	Derek Fu '18

Conditions — 01/06/2018 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 85% · Pressure 1019.9 hPa

Temperature

63°F

↑ 68°F ↓ 58°F

Feels like 63°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

4.7 kn

avg · max 8.0 kn

Gusts to 14.4 kn

From SW (221°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine4.1 hrs Humidity85% Pressure1019.9 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 8 kn · SW 6 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In this breeze at US Sailing Center - Long Beach: an underdogs’ day (−0.02)

Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.

Fleet adjustment +0.08 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.06

Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.21 ± 0.10)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at US Sailing Center - Long Beach by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (no labelled days at US Sailing Center - Long Beach: the all-venue pattern is shown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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