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NWISA Fall Championships- Ranking Regatta #1

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Olympia High School Olympia High School Bears 22 26 48
2 Roosevelt High School Roosevelt High School Rough Riders 24 25 49
3 Gig Harbor High School Gig Harbor High School Tides 34 20 54
4 Capital High School Capital High School Cougars 45 17 62
5 Benson Polytechnic High School Benson Polytechnic High School Techsters 23 49 72
6 Ingraham High School Ingraham High School Rams 24 50 74
7 Sehome High School Sehome High School Mariners 37 43 80
8 Bainbridge High School Bainbridge High School Spartans 49 36 85
9 Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Cardinals 39 52 91
10 Bellarmine Preparatory School Bellarmine Preparatory School Lions 62 52 114
11 Charles Wright Academy Charles Wright Academy Tarriers 58 61 119
12 Central Kitsap High School Central Kitsap High School Cougars 64 57 121
13 Oak Harbor High School Oak Harbor High School Wildcats 79 64 143
14 Bellingham High School Bellingham High School Raiders 71 80 151
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Olympia High School Olympia High School Bears 5 7 1 1 1 7 22 Owen Timms '19 [1-6]
Evan Krug '19 [1-4]
Ellie Davis '21 [5-6]
Benson Polytechnic High School Benson Polytechnic High School Techsters 2 4 5 5 4 3 23 Conrad Miller '21
Charlize Peterson '21
Ingraham High School Ingraham High School Rams 4 1 3 7 3 6 24 Maks Groom '20
Duncan Weiner '20
Roosevelt High School Roosevelt High School Rough Riders 10 2 4 4 2 2 24 Miles Williams '20 [1-6]
Kyla Greenstein '21 [1-2, 5-6]
Colin Baker '21 [3-4]
Gig Harbor High School Gig Harbor High School Tides 6 6 7 8 6 1 34 Axel Stordahl '20
Ripley Morris '19
Sehome High School Sehome High School Mariners 1 9 8 2 9 8 37 Cedric Keneipp '18
Natalie Serbousek '21
Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Cardinals 7 3 6 10 8 5 39 Casey Picket '20
Lauren Watt '20
Capital High School Capital High School Cougars 3 DSQ 2 6 10 9 45 Annie Buelt '20
Ann Li '20
Bainbridge High School Bainbridge High School Spartans 11 11 9 3 5 10 49 Max Doane '20
Chase Van Derrick '21
Charles Wright Academy Charles Wright Academy Tarriers 13 8 10 9 7 11 58 Hayden Flaskerud '20
Jaden Unruh '22
Bellarmine Preparatory School Bellarmine Preparatory School Lions 12 10 12 13 11 4 62 Thomas Pentimonti '20
Brianna Steel '22
Central Kitsap High School Central Kitsap High School Cougars 9 5 11 12 14 13 64 Tyler Nolasco '19 [1-6]
Annelisa Ayars '20 [1-2, 5-6]
Jack West '20 [3-4]
Bellingham High School Bellingham High School Raiders 8 13 13 11 12 14 71 Jack Knowles '20
Wyatt Mantha '22
Oak Harbor High School Oak Harbor High School Wildcats 14 12 14 14 13 12 79 Willa Weinsheimer '20
Catherine Wicker '20
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Capital High School Capital High School Cougars 8 3 2 2 1 1 17 Joy Brennan '20
Caroline Hurley '20
Gig Harbor High School Gig Harbor High School Tides 5 5 1 3 4 2 20 Dayne Hall '22
Carlos Rivas '22
Roosevelt High School Roosevelt High School Rough Riders 1 4 7 5 2 6 25 Sam Kimmel '20
Abbie Chipps '21
Olympia High School Olympia High School Bears 9 2 3 1 3 8 26 Erin Pamplin '20
Kevin Hicks '19
Bainbridge High School Bainbridge High School Spartans 3 11 6 4 9 3 36 Zach Cooper '20
Clayton Marsh '20
Sehome High School Sehome High School Mariners 12 6 4 8 6 7 43 Emma Powell '21
Mira Anders '21
Benson Polytechnic High School Benson Polytechnic High School Techsters 4 10 8 12 11 4 49 Daniel Duyvestein '21
Rooney Ferguson '21
Ingraham High School Ingraham High School Rams 10 1 13 6 DSQ 5 50 Kira Blumhagen '21 [1-4]
Aragorn Crozier '20 [5-6]
Aragorn Crozier '20 [1-4]
Kira Blumhagen '21 [5-6]
Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Cardinals 2 9 11 14 7 9 52 Peter Schnell '22
Leo Bieniek '20
Bellarmine Preparatory School Bellarmine Preparatory School Lions 6 12 5 7 12 10 52 Emily Smith '21
Taggart Messersmith '22
Central Kitsap High School Central Kitsap High School Cougars 7 13 9 11 5 12 57 Claire Jablonski '19
Cormac Burke '22
Charles Wright Academy Charles Wright Academy Tarriers 11 7 10 9 10 14 61 Ben Brink '22
Reed Kregenow '22
Oak Harbor High School Oak Harbor High School Wildcats DSQ 8 12 10 8 11 64 Thomas Buys '22
Andrew Buys '20
Bellingham High School Bellingham High School Raiders 13 14 14 13 13 13 80 Talia Clarke '22
Forrest Rehberger '20
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.100+0.10
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2018 (2 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A
Bainbridge High SchoolBainbridge High School Spartans225588
Bellarmine Preparatory SchoolBellarmine Preparatory School Lions337799
Bellingham High SchoolBellingham High School Raiders55881010
Benson Polytechnic High SchoolBenson Polytechnic High School Techsters77991212
Capital High SchoolCapital High School Cougars8810101313
Central Kitsap High SchoolCentral Kitsap High School Cougars9912121414
Charles Wright AcademyCharles Wright Academy Tarriers101013131515
Gig Harbor High SchoolGig Harbor High School Tides121214141616
Ingraham High SchoolIngraham High School Rams131315151717
Lincoln High School - Portland, ORLincoln High School - Portland, OR Cardinals141416161818
Oak Harbor High SchoolOak Harbor High School Wildcats1515171722
Olympia High SchoolOlympia High School Bears1616181833
Roosevelt High SchoolRoosevelt High School Rough Riders17172255
Sehome High SchoolSehome High School Mariners18183377

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B
Bainbridge High SchoolBainbridge High School Spartans337799
Bellarmine Preparatory SchoolBellarmine Preparatory School Lions55881010
Bellingham High SchoolBellingham High School Raiders77991212
Benson Polytechnic High SchoolBenson Polytechnic High School Techsters8810101313
Capital High SchoolCapital High School Cougars9912121414
Central Kitsap High SchoolCentral Kitsap High School Cougars101013131515
Charles Wright AcademyCharles Wright Academy Tarriers121214141616
Gig Harbor High SchoolGig Harbor High School Tides131315151717
Ingraham High SchoolIngraham High School Rams141416161818
Lincoln High School - Portland, ORLincoln High School - Portland, OR Cardinals1515171722
Oak Harbor High SchoolOak Harbor High School Wildcats1616181833
Olympia High SchoolOlympia High School Bears17172255
Roosevelt High SchoolRoosevelt High School Rough Riders18183377
Sehome High SchoolSehome High School Mariners225588
School / Team SkipperCrew
Bainbridge High School Bainbridge High School Max Doane '20 Chase Van Derrick '21
Spartans Zach Cooper '20 Clayton Marsh '20
Bellarmine Preparatory School Bellarmine Preparatory School Thomas Pentimonti '20 Brianna Steel '22
Lions Emily Smith '21 Taggart Messersmith '22
Bellingham High School Bellingham High School Jack Knowles '20 Wyatt Mantha '22
Raiders Talia Clarke '22 Forrest Rehberger '20
Benson Polytechnic High School Benson Polytechnic High School Conrad Miller '21 Charlize Peterson '21
Techsters Daniel Duyvestein '21 Rooney Ferguson '21
Capital High School Capital High School Annie Buelt '20 Ann Li '20
Cougars Joy Brennan '20 Caroline Hurley '20
Central Kitsap High School Central Kitsap High School Tyler Nolasco '19 [1-6] Annelisa Ayars '20 [1-2, 5-6]
Jack West '20 [3-4]
Cougars Claire Jablonski '19 Cormac Burke '22
Charles Wright Academy Charles Wright Academy Hayden Flaskerud '20 Jaden Unruh '22
Tarriers Ben Brink '22 Reed Kregenow '22
Gig Harbor High School Gig Harbor High School Axel Stordahl '20 Ripley Morris '19
Tides Dayne Hall '22 Carlos Rivas '22
Ingraham High School Ingraham High School Maks Groom '20 Duncan Weiner '20
Rams Kira Blumhagen '21 [1-4]
Aragorn Crozier '20 [5-6]		 Aragorn Crozier '20 [1-4]
Kira Blumhagen '21 [5-6]
Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Casey Picket '20 Lauren Watt '20
Cardinals Peter Schnell '22 Leo Bieniek '20
Oak Harbor High School Oak Harbor High School Willa Weinsheimer '20 Catherine Wicker '20
Wildcats Thomas Buys '22 Andrew Buys '20
Olympia High School Olympia High School Owen Timms '19 [1-6] Evan Krug '19 [1-4]
Ellie Davis '21 [5-6]
Bears Erin Pamplin '20 Kevin Hicks '19
Roosevelt High School Roosevelt High School Miles Williams '20 [1-6] Kyla Greenstein '21 [1-2, 5-6]
Colin Baker '21 [3-4]
Rough Riders Sam Kimmel '20 Abbie Chipps '21
Sehome High School Sehome High School Cedric Keneipp '18 Natalie Serbousek '21
Mariners Emma Powell '21 Mira Anders '21

Conditions — 11/03/2018 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 80%  ·  Pressure 1026.2 hPa

Temperature

55°F
↑ 59°F   ↓ 48°F
Feels like 53°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
3.6 kn
avg  ·  max 5.3 kn
Gusts to 11.7 kn
From SSW (192°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover88% Sunshine3.2 hrs Humidity80% Pressure1026.2 hPa Rain0.02 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SW 7 kn · W 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Lincoln OR: a typical day (−0.02)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment +0.04 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.02
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.08 ± 0.14)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Lincoln OR by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (no labelled days at Lincoln OR: the all-venue pattern is shown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →