NWISA Islands Cup

HostOrcas
Date04/16/2016
TypeIn-District
BoatCFJ
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	North Kitsap High School	Dogfish 1	63	31	94
2	Bainbridge High School	Spartans 1	126	21	147
3	Lincoln High School - Portland, OR	Cardinals 1	89	71	160
4	Friday Harbor High School	Wolverines 1	42	136	178
5	Orcas High School	Vikings 1	90	94	184
6	Sehome High School	Mariners V 1	157	36	193
7	Lycee Francais de Chicago	Red Hawks 1	113	89	202
8	Oregon Episcopal School	Aardvarks 1	105	112	217
9	Bainbridge High School	Spartans 2	130	104	234
10	Oregon Episcopal School	Aardvarks 2	69	178	247
11	Woodinville High School	Falcons	169	84	253
12	Orcas High School	Vikings 2	103	152	255
13	Seahawks 1	Seahawks 1	163	142	305
14	Olympia High School	Varsity 1	202	123	325
15	Oak Harbor High School	Wildcats 1	166	163	329
16	North Kitsap High School	Dogfish 3	100	241	341
17	Ingraham High School	Rams	194	162	356
18	Sehome High School	Mariners V 2	196	166	362
19	Bainbridge High School	Spartans 3	189	203	392
20	Friday Harbor High School	Wolverines 2	248	144	392
21	Lycee Francais de Chicago	Red Hawks 2	225	185	410
22	Raiders	Raiders	153	275	428
23	Lincoln High School - Portland, OR	Cardinals 2	203	230	433
24	Seahawks 2	Seahawks 2	263	205	468
25	Oak Harbor High School	Wildcats 2	247	223	470
26	Olympia High School	Varsity 2	229	245	474
27	Friday Harbor High School	Wolverines 3	184	303	487
28	Central Kitsap High School	Cougars	213	277	490
29	Capital	Capital	245	256	501
30	Sehome High School	Mariners V 3	252	271	523
31	Lycee Francais de Chicago	Red Hawks 3	270	256	526
32	Orcas High School	Vikings 3	286	249	535
33	Storm	Storm	236	309	545
34	North Kitsap High School	Dogfish 2	287	260	547
35	Bainbridge High School	Spartans 4	296	317	613

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	TOT	Sailors
Friday Harbor High School	Wolverines 1	2	2	2	4	1	6	6	6	10	3	42	Marina West '22 Zoe Calverly '23
North Kitsap High School	Dogfish 1	6	4	1	5	5	7	7	10	3	15	63	Maddie Ekin '16 Anna Sherry '19
Oregon Episcopal School	Aardvarks 2	14	23	3	1	2	3	2	9	6	6	69	Thomas Hope '16 Connor Chapman '16
Lincoln High School - Portland, OR	Cardinals 1	30	18	10	3	13	9	1	3	1	1	89	Matthew Reynolds '16 [1-10] Olivia Weissflog '17 [1-6] Rebecca Reynolds '17 [7-10]
Orcas High School	Vikings 1	4	8	4	7	3	15	11	8	19	11	90	Wylie Kau '16 Matia Schwartz '17
North Kitsap High School	Dogfish 3	3	22	5	17	8	5	5	5	17	13	100	Alyosha Strum-Palerm '17 Annelise Pardee '19
Orcas High School	Vikings 2	13	1	8	26	4	4	23	11	8	5	103	Maggie Toombs '18 Emma Freedman '19
Oregon Episcopal School	Aardvarks 1	11	9	30	27	6	1	3	12	4	2	105	John Ped '16 Ella Crosby '18
Lycee Francais de Chicago	Red Hawks 1	1	29	15	25	9	2	4	1	5	22	113	Chloe Dawson '16 Jackson Wilke '21
Bainbridge High School	Spartans 1	7	3	16	16	14	25	13	2	7	23	126	Caelan Juckniess '16 Sophia Kasper '18
Bainbridge High School	Spartans 2	10	11	13	12	11	27	16	7	15	8	130	Arianna Fiore '21 Elizabeth Rolfes '17
Raiders	Raiders	15	26	22	9	21	11	12	14	9	14	153
Sehome High School	Mariners V 1	RAF	27	7	21	12	8	20	15	2	9	157	Jeffrey Werner '16 [1-4] Shea Walker '16 [5-10] Mallory Hood '23 [1-4]
Seahawks 1	Seahawks 1	19	7	17	20	22	19	17	16	22	4	163
Oak Harbor High School	Wildcats 1	12	17	20	28	24	18	14	13	13	7	166	Max Van Dam '16 Piper Fisher '19
Woodinville High School	Falcons	16	6	12	19	20	26	24	18	16	12	169	Nicolai Blasdel '17 [1-10] Henry Barrow '16 [1-4] Sophie Hunter '16 [5-10]
Friday Harbor High School	Wolverines 3	24	21	25	6	7	13	25	26	11	26	184
Bainbridge High School	Spartans 3	21	19	9	8	23	20	10	28	21	30	189	Harrison Saliba '17 Amanda Gilmore '19
Ingraham High School	Rams	23	30	18	2	26	10	26	21	18	20	194	Yumi Shridhar '16 [1-2] Grant Barton '16 [3-10] Sophie Hunter '16 [1-2] Van Senseney '19 [3-10]
Sehome High School	Mariners V 2	17	12	21	11	18	23	21	29	26	18	196
Olympia High School	Varsity 1	20	15	14	30	16	30	34	4	20	19	202	Elena Gonick '16 Konrad Brine '16
Lincoln High School - Portland, OR	Cardinals 2	5	16	33	33	15	28	8	25	24	16	203	Ian Stewart '17 Spencer Daigle '17
Central Kitsap High School	Cougars	32	14	29	15	17	17	28	17	23	21	213	Niko Twilla '18 Tyler Nolasco '19
Lycee Francais de Chicago	Red Hawks 2	22	20	11	29	19	24	9	31	32	28	225	Anda Yoshina '16 [1-10] Sam Justis '18 [1-4, 7-10] Jocelyn Yang '19 [5-6]
Olympia High School	Varsity 2	33	25	19	10	27	12	29	DNS	14	24	229
Storm	Storm	8	10	31	14	25	22	31	34	28	33	236
Capital	Capital	9	5	RDG	18	33	33	35	30	29	29	245
Oak Harbor High School	Wildcats 2	26	33	28	31	30	29	15	20	25	10	247	Dylan Angell '18 James William '17
Friday Harbor High School	Wolverines 2	25	31	6	22	31	31	18	27	30	27	248	Alanna Halliday '16
Sehome High School	Mariners V 3	34	32	34	34	29	14	19	19	12	25	252
Seahawks 2	Seahawks 2	31	28	35	35	28	16	22	24	27	17	263
Lycee Francais de Chicago	Red Hawks 3	27	34	23	23	10	32	33	23	33	32	270	Jack Gibbons '20 [1, 3-10] Elijah Johnson '16 [2] Elijah Johnson '16 [1, 3-10]
Orcas High School	Vikings 3	18	35	26	32	35	21	30	22	31	DNF	286	Levi Moss '19
North Kitsap High School	Dogfish 2	28	24	27	13	34	34	27	32	34	34	287	Morgan Chapman '19 Isabelle Loverich '19
Bainbridge High School	Spartans 4	29	13	32	24	32	35	32	33	35	31	296	Quinn Ring '18 [1-10] Daniel Rentz '18 [1-2, 5-10] Roark Coggon '19 [3-4]

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	TOT	Sailors
Bainbridge High School	Spartans 1	1	4	1	1	6	2	2	2	1	1	21	Blake Bentzen '16 Nicole Sanford '16
North Kitsap High School	Dogfish 1	2	1	5	3	5	5	1	1	3	5	31	Liam Sherry '16 Julia Sherry '19
Sehome High School	Mariners V 1	4	5	8	2	2	1	7	3	2	2	36	Liam Hood '16 [1-10] Shea Walker '16 [1-4] Peyton Nienaber '23 [5-10]
Lincoln High School - Portland, OR	Cardinals 1	9	19	6	5	4	3	6	9	6	4	71	Riley Read '17 [1-10] Rebecca Reynolds '17 [1-6] Olivia Weissflog '17 [7-10]
Woodinville High School	Falcons	3	3	10	12	9	7	5	10	15	10	84	Margot Watts '19 Marijke Jorna '16
Lycee Francais de Chicago	Red Hawks 1	6	13	16	4	1	11	10	6	11	11	89	Mckenzie Ginther '16 Alejandro Montanez '17
Orcas High School	Vikings 1	23	12	9	6	7	10	4	15	5	3	94	Axel Greening '17 [1-10] Haley Moss '18 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10] Millie Kau '19 [3-4, 7-8]
Bainbridge High School	Spartans 2	7	11	4	11	11	21	9	5	17	8	104	Karl Anderson '16 Kathryn Smith '17
Oregon Episcopal School	Aardvarks 1	14	15	24	8	12	15	3	8	7	6	112	Claire Siegel-Wilson '18 Ronan Waterson '18
Olympia High School	Varsity 1	16	7	17	14	15	9	11	11	10	13	123	Max Miller '18 Leo Brine '16
Friday Harbor High School	Wolverines 1	12	20	14	22	3	4	20	13	13	15	136	Max Kessler '16 Will Hagmann '22
Seahawks 1	Seahawks 1	10	16	27	27	10	8	13	7	12	12	142
Friday Harbor High School	Wolverines 2	5	8	11	7	25	14	12	24	22	16	144	Olin Carlson '17
Orcas High School	Vikings 2	8	9	2	13	14	12	19	16	23	DNF	152	Aristotle Luna '20 [1-10] Jadyn Kopp '18 [1-8] Levi Moss '19 [9-10]
Ingraham High School	Rams	20	10	23	26	21	13	24	4	4	17	162	Luke Gibbons '18 Kendall Butler '18
Oak Harbor High School	Wildcats 1	21	14	15	19	13	16	18	19	21	7	163	Jordan Wood-Pina '18 Matt Dixon '17
Sehome High School	Mariners V 2	11	6	3	21	20	29	16	17	18	25	166
Oregon Episcopal School	Aardvarks 2	18	29	19	10	16	22	8	12	8	DNF	178	Hanna Brush '17 Caleigh Warner '17
Lycee Francais de Chicago	Red Hawks 2	13	2	12	34	26	20	21	22	16	19	185	Sean Westlund '16 [1-10] Camille Ottaway '16 [1-2, 5-10] Jocelyn Yang '19 [3-4]
Bainbridge High School	Spartans 3	24	28	20	15	19	17	17	20	14	29	203	Sophie Lewis '18 Sophie Crandell '18
Seahawks 2	Seahawks 2	22	21	26	18	33	23	30	14	9	9	205
Oak Harbor High School	Wildcats 2	29	22	25	29	8	6	27	29	26	22	223	Jared Hunt '16 [1-10] No Show [1-4, 7-10] Austin Hauter '17 [5-6]
Lincoln High School - Portland, OR	Cardinals 2	17	24	30	25	18	19	22	23	25	27	230	Anisha Arcott '18 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10] Issac Houchen-Haan '16 [3-4, 7-8] Megan Waller '20 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
North Kitsap High School	Dogfish 3	15	17	29	24	27	27	29	26	29	18	241	Matt Thomas '16 [1-10] Isaiah Stout '17 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10] Cody Cline '17 [3-4, 7-8]
Olympia High School	Varsity 2	31	26	22	20	17	33	14	25	27	30	245
Orcas High School	Vikings 3	25	31	13	17	23	26	28	30	30	26	249	Levi Moss '19
Lycee Francais de Chicago	Red Hawks 3	26	DNS	7	23	29	25	23	DSQ	31	20	256	Jack Gibbons '20 [1, 3-10] Elijah Johnson '16 [2] Elijah Johnson '16 [1, 3-10]
Capital	Capital	30	27	28	9	DNS	30	25	18	32	21	256
North Kitsap High School	Dogfish 2	27	18	33	33	28	18	35	34	20	14	260	Nicholas Jordan '16 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10] Nathan Grundmeier '19 [3-4, 7-8] Alex Ashley '18 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Sehome High School	Mariners V 3	34	23	18	30	31	24	32	21	34	24	271
Raiders	Raiders	19	25	35	31	22	28	31	28	28	28	275
Central Kitsap High School	Cougars	28	32	32	35	32	34	15	27	19	23	277	Isabelle Wheeler '17 Kaylee Frede '17
Friday Harbor High School	Wolverines 3	35	30	31	16	30	31	33	33	33	31	303
Storm	Storm	32	34	34	32	24	32	34	31	24	32	309
Bainbridge High School	Spartans 4	33	33	21	28	DNF	DNS	26	32	DNF	DNS	317	Jack Sobeck '19 [1-8] Roark Coggon '19 [9-10] Camden Lee '19 [1-6, 9-10] Roark Coggon '19 [7-8]

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.180+0.18

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2016 (2 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A	7A	8A	9A	10A
Seahawks 1 Seahawks 1					34	34	36	36	37	37
Seahawks 2 Seahawks 2			34	34	36	36	37	37	38	38
Bainbridge High School Spartans 1	34	34	36	36	37	37	38	38
Bainbridge High School Spartans 2	36	36	37	37	38	38			45	45
Bainbridge High School Spartans 3	37	37	38	38			45	45	26	26
Bainbridge High School Spartans 4	38	38			45	45	26	26
Raiders Raiders			45	45	26	26
Capital Capital	45	45	26	26
Central Kitsap High School Cougars	26	26							11	11
Friday Harbor High School Wolverines 1							11	11	13	13
Friday Harbor High School Wolverines 2					11	11	13	13	14	14
Friday Harbor High School Wolverines 3			11	11	13	13	14	14	27	27
Ingraham High School Rams	11	11	13	13	14	14	27	27	28	28
Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Cardinals 1	13	13	14	14	27	27	28	28	29	29
Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Cardinals 2	14	14	27	27	28	28	29	29	43	43
Lycee Francais de Chicago Red Hawks 1	101	101	111	111	131	131	19	19	20	20
Lycee Francais de Chicago Red Hawks 2	111	111	131	131	19	19	20	20	24	24
Lycee Francais de Chicago Red Hawks 3	131	131	19	19	20	20	24	24	25	25
North Kitsap High School Dogfish 1	27	27	28	28	29	29	43	43	44	44
North Kitsap High School Dogfish 2	28	28	29	29	43	43	44	44	32	32
North Kitsap High School Dogfish 3	29	29	43	43	44	44	32	32
Oak Harbor High School Wildcats 1	43	43	44	44	32	32			21	21
Oak Harbor High School Wildcats 2	44	44	32	32			21	21	22	22
Oregon Episcopal School Aardvarks 1	15	15	16	16	101	101	111	111	131	131
Oregon Episcopal School Aardvarks 2	16	16	101	101	111	111	131	131	19	19
Olympia High School Varsity 1	32	32			21	21	22	22	23	23
Olympia High School Varsity 2			21	21	22	22	23	23	15	15
Orcas High School Vikings 1	21	21	22	22	23	23	15	15	16	16
Orcas High School Vikings 2	22	22	23	23	15	15	16	16	101	101
Orcas High School Vikings 3	23	23	15	15	16	16	101	101	111	111
Sehome High School Mariners V 1	19	19	20	20	24	24	25	25	10	10
Sehome High School Mariners V 2	20	20	24	24	25	25	10	10
Sehome High School Mariners V 3	24	24	25	25	10	10
Storm Storm	25	25	10	10					34	34
Woodinville High School Falcons	10	10					34	34	36	36

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B	7B	8B	9B	10B
Seahawks 1 Seahawks 1	29	29	43	43	44	44	32	32
Seahawks 2 Seahawks 2	43	43	44	44	32	32			21	21
Bainbridge High School Spartans 1	44	44	32	32			21	21	22	22
Bainbridge High School Spartans 2	32	32			21	21	22	22	23	23
Bainbridge High School Spartans 3			21	21	22	22	23	23	15	15
Bainbridge High School Spartans 4	21	21	22	22	23	23	15	15	16	16
Raiders Raiders	22	22	23	23	15	15	16	16	101	101
Capital Capital	23	23	15	15	16	16	101	101	111	111
Central Kitsap High School Cougars	15	15	16	16	101	101	111	111	131	131
Friday Harbor High School Wolverines 1	16	16	101	101	111	111	131	131	19	19
Friday Harbor High School Wolverines 2	101	101	111	111	131	131	19	19	20	20
Friday Harbor High School Wolverines 3	111	111	131	131	19	19	20	20	24	24
Ingraham High School Rams	131	131	19	19	20	20	24	24	25	25
Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Cardinals 1	19	19	20	20	24	24	25	25	10	10
Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Cardinals 2	20	20	24	24	25	25	10	10
Lycee Francais de Chicago Red Hawks 1							11	11	13	13
Lycee Francais de Chicago Red Hawks 2					11	11	13	13	14	14
Lycee Francais de Chicago Red Hawks 3			11	11	13	13	14	14	27	27
North Kitsap High School Dogfish 1	24	24	25	25	10	10
North Kitsap High School Dogfish 2	25	25	10	10					34	34
North Kitsap High School Dogfish 3	10	10					34	34	36	36
Oak Harbor High School Wildcats 1					34	34	36	36	37	37
Oak Harbor High School Wildcats 2			34	34	36	36	37	37	38	38
Oregon Episcopal School Aardvarks 1	45	45	26	26
Oregon Episcopal School Aardvarks 2	26	26							11	11
Olympia High School Varsity 1	34	34	36	36	37	37	38	38
Olympia High School Varsity 2	36	36	37	37	38	38			45	45
Orcas High School Vikings 1	37	37	38	38			45	45	26	26
Orcas High School Vikings 2	38	38			45	45	26	26
Orcas High School Vikings 3			45	45	26	26
Sehome High School Mariners V 1	11	11	13	13	14	14	27	27	28	28
Sehome High School Mariners V 2	13	13	14	14	27	27	28	28	29	29
Sehome High School Mariners V 3	14	14	27	27	28	28	29	29	43	43
Storm Storm	27	27	28	28	29	29	43	43	44	44
Woodinville High School Falcons	28	28	29	29	43	43	44	44	32	32

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Bainbridge High School	Caelan Juckniess '16	Sophia Kasper '18
Spartans 1	Blake Bentzen '16	Nicole Sanford '16
Bainbridge High School	Arianna Fiore '21	Elizabeth Rolfes '17
Spartans 2	Karl Anderson '16	Kathryn Smith '17
Bainbridge High School	Harrison Saliba '17	Amanda Gilmore '19
Spartans 3	Sophie Lewis '18	Sophie Crandell '18
Bainbridge High School	Quinn Ring '18 [1-10]	Daniel Rentz '18 [1-2, 5-10] Roark Coggon '19 [3-4]
Spartans 4	Jack Sobeck '19 [1-8] Roark Coggon '19 [9-10]	Camden Lee '19 [1-6, 9-10] Roark Coggon '19 [7-8]
Central Kitsap High School	Niko Twilla '18	Tyler Nolasco '19
Cougars	Isabelle Wheeler '17	Kaylee Frede '17
Friday Harbor High School	Marina West '22	Zoe Calverly '23
Wolverines 1	Max Kessler '16	Will Hagmann '22
Friday Harbor High School	Alanna Halliday '16
Wolverines 2	Olin Carlson '17
Ingraham High School	Yumi Shridhar '16 [1-2] Grant Barton '16 [3-10]	Sophie Hunter '16 [1-2] Van Senseney '19 [3-10]
Rams	Luke Gibbons '18	Kendall Butler '18
Lincoln High School - Portland, OR	Matthew Reynolds '16 [1-10]	Olivia Weissflog '17 [1-6] Rebecca Reynolds '17 [7-10]
Cardinals 1	Riley Read '17 [1-10]	Rebecca Reynolds '17 [1-6] Olivia Weissflog '17 [7-10]
Lincoln High School - Portland, OR	Ian Stewart '17	Spencer Daigle '17
Cardinals 2	Anisha Arcott '18 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10] Issac Houchen-Haan '16 [3-4, 7-8]	Megan Waller '20 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Lycee Francais de Chicago	Chloe Dawson '16	Jackson Wilke '21
Red Hawks 1	Mckenzie Ginther '16	Alejandro Montanez '17
Lycee Francais de Chicago	Anda Yoshina '16 [1-10]	Sam Justis '18 [1-4, 7-10] Jocelyn Yang '19 [5-6]
Red Hawks 2	Sean Westlund '16 [1-10]	Camille Ottaway '16 [1-2, 5-10] Jocelyn Yang '19 [3-4]
Lycee Francais de Chicago	Jack Gibbons '20 [1, 3-10] Elijah Johnson '16 [2]	Elijah Johnson '16 [1, 3-10]
Red Hawks 3	Jack Gibbons '20 [1, 3-10] Elijah Johnson '16 [2]	Elijah Johnson '16 [1, 3-10]
North Kitsap High School	Maddie Ekin '16	Anna Sherry '19
Dogfish 1	Liam Sherry '16	Julia Sherry '19
North Kitsap High School	Morgan Chapman '19	Isabelle Loverich '19
Dogfish 2	Nicholas Jordan '16 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10] Nathan Grundmeier '19 [3-4, 7-8]	Alex Ashley '18 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
North Kitsap High School	Alyosha Strum-Palerm '17	Annelise Pardee '19
Dogfish 3	Matt Thomas '16 [1-10]	Isaiah Stout '17 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10] Cody Cline '17 [3-4, 7-8]
Oak Harbor High School	Max Van Dam '16	Piper Fisher '19
Wildcats 1	Jordan Wood-Pina '18	Matt Dixon '17
Oak Harbor High School	Dylan Angell '18	James William '17
Wildcats 2	Jared Hunt '16 [1-10]	No Show [1-4, 7-10] Austin Hauter '17 [5-6]
Olympia High School	Elena Gonick '16	Konrad Brine '16
Varsity 1	Max Miller '18	Leo Brine '16
Orcas High School	Wylie Kau '16	Matia Schwartz '17
Vikings 1	Axel Greening '17 [1-10]	Haley Moss '18 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10] Millie Kau '19 [3-4, 7-8]
Orcas High School	Maggie Toombs '18	Emma Freedman '19
Vikings 2	Aristotle Luna '20 [1-10]	Jadyn Kopp '18 [1-8] Levi Moss '19 [9-10]
Orcas High School	Levi Moss '19
Vikings 3	Levi Moss '19
Oregon Episcopal School	John Ped '16	Ella Crosby '18
Aardvarks 1	Claire Siegel-Wilson '18	Ronan Waterson '18
Oregon Episcopal School	Thomas Hope '16	Connor Chapman '16
Aardvarks 2	Hanna Brush '17	Caleigh Warner '17
Sehome High School	Jeffrey Werner '16 [1-4] Shea Walker '16 [5-10]	Mallory Hood '23 [1-4]
Mariners V 1	Liam Hood '16 [1-10]	Shea Walker '16 [1-4] Peyton Nienaber '23 [5-10]
Woodinville High School	Nicolai Blasdel '17 [1-10]	Henry Barrow '16 [1-4] Sophie Hunter '16 [5-10]
Falcons	Margot Watts '19	Marijke Jorna '16

Conditions — 04/16/2016 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 75% · Pressure 1027.0 hPa

Temperature

53°F

↑ 56°F ↓ 49°F

Feels like 50°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

4.2 kn

avg · max 7.2 kn

Gusts to 7.8 kn

From NE (48°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover99% Sunshine9.8 hrs Humidity75% Pressure1027.0 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NE 6 kn · NW 10 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In this breeze at Orcas: a typical day (+0.01)

Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.

Fleet adjustment +0.00 (an ordinary fleet) · combined forecast +0.02

Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.10 ± 0.08)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Orcas by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 2 labelled days at Orcas, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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