| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Bainbridge High School | Spartans | 0–0 |
| 2 |  |
Sehome High School | Mariners | 0–0 |
| 3 |  |
Lincoln High School - Portland, OR | Cardinals | 0–0 |
| 4 |  |
Woodinville High School | Falcons | 0–0 |
| 5 |  |
Central Kitsap High School | Cougars | 0–0 |
| 6 |  |
Orcas High School | Vikings | 0–0 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 63 team race matches sailed before 2014-05-03, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 39 of 57 matches (68%) with a log-loss of 0.636 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went poorly for the forecast. vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bainbridge High School Spartans | 2 | 317.56 home +0.00 | Stasi Burzycki / Carissa Block Connor Juckniess / Hannah Harrison Jackson Mccoy / Nels Challinor | 79% | 17–4 (81%) | +0.5 |
| 2 | Sehome High School Mariners | 4 | 315.12 | Elizabeth Fox / Linnea Lipson Britton Durst / Will Schaefer Harrison Bailey / Josh Evans | 38% | 15–6 (71%) | +7.0 |
| 3 | Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Cardinals | 1 | 317.97 | Drew Ehlers / Kira Allen Drew Bennett / Michael Pauleen Matthew Reynolds / Gavin Ross | 84% | 13–8 (62%) | −4.7 |
| 4 | Woodinville High School Falcons | 5 | 314.61 | Adam Didomizio / Tim Player Connor Hughes / Karl Skeel Nathan Finger / Erik Skeel | 30% | 8–13 (38%) | +1.8 |
| 5 | Central Kitsap High School Cougars | 6 | 269.87 | Alana Moutier / Allison Trunkey Devon Royston / Isabelle Wheeler Evan Lund / Kaylee Frede | 14% | 3–12 (20%) | +0.8 |
| 6 | Orcas High School Vikings | 3 | 271.68 | Taj Howe / Lilly Miller Quinn Freedman / Matia Schwartz Wylie Kau / Halle Thompson | 43% | 1–14 (7%) | −5.4 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Sehome High School | 315.12 | 317.69 | 15–6 | 8.0 | +2.58 | 10.1 | <1% |
| 4 | Woodinville High School | 314.61 | 315.28 | 8–13 | 6.2 | +0.67 | 0.7 | 23% |
| 5 | Central Kitsap High School | 269.87 | 270.43 | 3–12 | 2.2 | +0.56 | 0.3 | 37% |
| 1 | Bainbridge High School | 317.56 | 317.81 | 17–4 | 16.5 | +0.25 | 0.1 | 52% |
| 3 | Lincoln High School - Portland, OR | 317.97 | 316.04 | 13–8 | 17.7 | −1.93 | 5.5 | >99% |
| 6 | Orcas High School | 271.68 | 268.00 | 1–14 | 6.4 | −3.68 | 9.3 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Didomizio | Woodinville High School | 1.60 | 2.27 | 8–13 | 6.2 | +0.67 | 0.7 | 23% |
| Nathan Finger | Woodinville High School | 0.00 | 0.67 | 8–13 | 6.2 | +0.67 | 0.7 | 23% |
| Alana Moutier | Central Kitsap High School | 0.58 | 1.14 | 3–12 | 2.2 | +0.56 | 0.3 | 37% |
| Devon Royston | Central Kitsap High School | 0.34 | 0.90 | 3–12 | 2.2 | +0.56 | 0.3 | 37% |
| Evan Lund | Central Kitsap High School | 0.52 | 1.08 | 3–12 | 2.2 | +0.56 | 0.3 | 37% |
| Stasi Burzycki | Bainbridge High School | 2.02 | 2.27 | 17–4 | 16.5 | +0.25 | 0.1 | 52% |
| Drew Ehlers | Lincoln High School - Portland, OR | 1.89 | -0.04 | 13–8 | 17.7 | −1.93 | 5.5 | >99% |
| Drew Bennett | Lincoln High School - Portland, OR | 2.22 | 0.29 | 13–8 | 17.7 | −1.93 | 5.5 | >99% |
| Taj Howe | Orcas High School | 1.09 | -2.60 | 1–14 | 6.4 | −3.68 | 9.3 | >99% |
| Quinn Freedman | Orcas High School | 0.98 | -2.70 | 1–14 | 6.4 | −3.68 | 9.3 | >99% |
| Wylie Kau | Orcas High School | 1.18 | -2.50 | 1–14 | 6.4 | −3.68 | 9.3 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Spartans | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Falcons | 3-4-6 |
| 2 | |
Cardinals | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Cougars | 3-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Mariners | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Vikings | 4-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Cardinals | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Falcons | 1-4-6 |
| 5 | |
Spartans | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Vikings | 3-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Mariners | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Cougars | 3-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Cardinals | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Vikings | 4-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Falcons | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Cougars | 3-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Spartans | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Mariners | 1-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Cougars | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Vikings | 1-4-6 |
| 11 | |
Spartans | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Cardinals | 1-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Mariners | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Falcons | 3-4-5 |
| 13 | |
Spartans | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Cougars | 3-4-6 |
| 14 | |
Falcons | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Vikings | 2-3-6 |
| 15 | |
Mariners | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Cardinals | 4-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Spartans | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Falcons | 3-4-6 |
| 17 | |
Cougars | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Cardinals | 4-5-6 |
| 18 | |
Mariners | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Vikings | 3-4-5 |
| 19 | |
Cardinals | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Falcons | 2-4-6 |
| 20 | |
Spartans | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Vikings | 4-5-6 |
| 21 | |
Mariners | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Cougars | 4-5-6 |
| 22 | |
Cardinals | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Vikings | 2-5-6 |
| 23 | |
Falcons | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Cougars | 3-5-6 |
| 24 | |
Spartans | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Mariners | 1-5-6 |
| 25 | |
Vikings | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Cougars | 2-5-6 |
| 26 | |
Spartans | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Cardinals | 3-4-5 |
| 27 | |
Mariners | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Falcons | 1-5-6 |
| 28 | |
Spartans | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Cougars | 4-5-6 |
| 29 | |
Falcons | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Vikings | 3-5-6 |
| 30 | |
Cardinals | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Mariners | 1-4-6 |
| 31 | |
Spartans | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Falcons | 3-5-6 |
| 32 | |
Cardinals | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Cougars | 3-4-5 |
| 33 | |
Mariners | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Vikings | 4-5-6 |
| 34 | |
Falcons | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Cardinals | 3-4-5 |
| 35 | |
Spartans | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Vikings | 3-5-6 |
| 36 | |
Mariners | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Cougars | 4-5-6 |
| 37 | |
Cardinals | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Vikings | 3-5-6 |
| 38 | |
Falcons | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Cougars | 3-4-5 |
| 39 | |
Spartans | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Mariners | 3-4-5 |
| 40 | |
Cougars | 2-4-5 | def. | |
Vikings | 1-3-6 DSQ |
| 41 | |
Cardinals | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Spartans | 1-5-6 |
| 42 | |
Mariners | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Falcons | 3-4-6 |
| 43 | |
Spartans | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Cougars | 3-5-6 |
| 44 | |
Falcons | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Vikings | 3-4-5 |
| 45 | |
Cardinals | 2-4-6 | def. | |
Mariners | 1-3-5 DSQ |
| 46 | |
Mariners | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Cardinals | 3-5-6 |
| 47 | |
Spartans | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Falcons | 2-3-6 |
| 48 | |
Cardinals | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Falcons | 3-4-5 |
| 49 | |
Mariners | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Spartans | 2-3-6 |
| 50 | |
Mariners | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Falcons | 3-5-6 |
| 51 | |
Spartans | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Cardinals | 3-4-6 |
| 52 | |
Cardinals | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Mariners | 1-5-6 |
| 53 | |
Spartans | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Falcons | 2-5-6 |
| 54 | |
Falcons | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Cardinals | 3-4-5 |
| 55 | |
Mariners | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Spartans | 2-3-6 |
| 56 | |
Mariners | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Falcons | 1-4-6 |
| 57 | |
Cardinals | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Spartans | 3-4-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Bainbridge High School | Spartans | Connor Juckniess '14 Jackson Mccoy '15 Stasi Burzycki '15 |
Hannah Harrison '15 Nels Challinor '14 Carissa Block '14 |
|
Sehome High School | Mariners | Britton Durst '19 Elizabeth Fox '15 Harrison Bailey '18 |
Will Schaefer '17 Linnea Lipson '16 Josh Evans '18 |
|
Lincoln High School - Portland, OR | Cardinals | Drew Bennett '15 Drew Ehlers '15 Matthew Reynolds '16 |
Michael Pauleen '14 Kira Allen '14 Gavin Ross '16 |
|
Woodinville High School | Falcons | Adam Didomizio '15 Connor Hughes '15 Nathan Finger '15 |
Tim Player '16 Karl Skeel '16 Erik Skeel '16 |
|
Central Kitsap High School | Cougars | Alana Moutier '14 Devon Royston '14 Evan Lund '15 |
Allison Trunkey '14 Isabelle Wheeler '17 Kaylee Frede '17 |
|
Orcas High School | Vikings | Quinn Freedman '15 Taj Howe '15 Wylie Kau '16 |
Matia Schwartz '17 Lilly Miller '16 Halle Thompson '16 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.06 means a rating gap counts about 5% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
