| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Sehome High School | Mariners V 1 | 3–0 |
| 2 |  |
Oak Harbor High School | Wildcats | 3–1 |
| 2 |  |
Bainbridge High School | Spartans 1 | 3–1 |
| 2 |  |
Orcas High School | Vikings 1 | 3–1 |
| 2 |  |
Woodinville High School | Falcons | 3–1 |
| 6 |  |
Lincoln High School - Portland, OR | Cardinals | 2–2 |
| 7 |  |
Oregon Episcopal School | Aardvarks | 2–3 |
| 8 |  |
North Kitsap High School | Dogfish 1 | 1–2 |
| 9 |  |
Lycee Francais de Chicago | Red Hawks | 1–3 |
| 9 | |
Bainbridge High School | Spartans 2 | 1–3 |
| 11 |  |
Olympia High School | Varsity 1 | 0–5 |
| 12 |  |
Ingraham High School | Rams | 5–0 |
| 12 |  |
Gig Harbor High School | Tides | 5–0 |
| 14 | |
Orcas High School | Vikings 2 | 3–2 |
| 15 |  |
Central Kitsap High School | Cougars | 3–2 |
| 16 | |
Olympia High School | Varsity 2 | 2–3 |
| 16 | |
Sehome High School | Mariners V 2 | 2–3 |
| 18 | |
North Kitsap High School | Dogfish 2 | 0–5 |
| 18 |  |
Olympic High School (WA) | Trojans | 0–5 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 1,621 team race matches sailed before 2016-04-09, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 5 of 6 matches (83%) with a log-loss of 0.521 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Orcas High School Vikings 1 | 5.09 | 8.09 | 1–0 | 0.7 | ≥+3.00 | 0.4 | 70% |
| 2 | Woodinville High School Falcons | 5.33 | 8.33 | 2–0 | 1.5 | ≥+3.00 | 0.8 | 53% |
| 2 | Oak Harbor High School Wildcats | 3.14 | 3.98 | 1–1 | 0.7 | +0.84 | 0.2 | 57% |
| 8 | North Kitsap High School Dogfish 1 | 4.04 | 3.18 | 1–2 | 1.4 | −0.86 | 0.2 | 88% |
| 9 | Bainbridge High School Spartans 2 | 4.04 | 2.89 | 1–3 | 1.7 | −1.15 | 0.4 | 91% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alyosha Strum-Palerm | North Kitsap High School | 1.62 | 0.77 | 1–2 | 1.4 | −0.86 | 0.2 | 88% |
| Arianna Fiore | Bainbridge High School | 1.68 | 0.53 | 1–3 | 1.7 | −1.15 | 0.4 | 91% |
| Sophie Lewis | Bainbridge High School | 0.51 | -0.64 | 1–3 | 1.7 | −1.15 | 0.4 | 91% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Rd | # | Winner | Loser | P(winner) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Orcas High School Vikings 1 | Bainbridge High School Spartans 2 | 70% | ||
| 4 | Oak Harbor High School Wildcats | North Kitsap High School Dogfish 1 | 35% | upset | |
| 8 | Bainbridge High School Spartans 2 | Oak Harbor High School Wildcats | 66% | ||
| 10 | Woodinville High School Falcons | North Kitsap High School Dogfish 1 | 74% | ||
| 14 | North Kitsap High School Dogfish 1 | Bainbridge High School Spartans 2 | 51% | ||
| 20 | Woodinville High School Falcons | Bainbridge High School Spartans 2 | 72% |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Spartans 1 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Red Hawks | 3-4-5 |
| 2 | |
Vikings 1 | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Spartans 2 | 2-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Cardinals | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Varsity 1 | 2-3-6 |
| 4 | |
Wildcats | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Dogfish 1 | 1-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Falcons | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Aardvarks | 3-4-5 |
| 6 | |
Mariners V 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Red Hawks | 3-4-6 |
| 7 | |
Spartans 1 | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Varsity 1 | 2-3-6 |
| 8 | |
Spartans 2 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Wildcats | 4-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Aardvarks | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Cardinals | 2-4-6 |
| 10 | |
Falcons | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Dogfish 1 | 2-3-6 |
| 11 | |
Red Hawks | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Vikings 1 | 2-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Mariners V 1 | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Varsity 1 | 1-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Aardvarks | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Spartans 1 | 1-4-6 |
| 14 | |
Dogfish 1 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Spartans 2 | 3-4-5 |
| 15 | |
Cardinals | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Falcons | 3-4-5 |
| 16 | |
Vikings 1 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Varsity 1 | 3-4-5 |
| 17 | |
Wildcats | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Red Hawks | 3-4-6 |
| 18 | |
Mariners V 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Aardvarks | 3-4-6 |
| 19 | |
Spartans 1 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Cardinals | 3-4-5 |
| 20 | |
Falcons | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Spartans 2 | 1-5-6 |
| 21 | |
Wildcats | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Varsity 1 | 1-5-6 |
| 22 | |
Vikings 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Aardvarks | 3-5-6 |
| 23 | |
Vikings 2 | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Cougars | 2-4-6 |
| 24 | |
Tides | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Trojans | 3-5-6 |
| 25 | |
Rams | 2-4-6 | def. | |
Varsity 2 | 1-3-5 DSQ |
| 26 | |
Mariners V 2 | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Dogfish 2 | 1-4-6 |
| 27 | |
Vikings 2 | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Trojans | 1-4-6 |
| 28 | |
Cougars | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 29 | |
Tides | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Dogfish 2 | 3-4-6 |
| 30 | |
Rams | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Mariners V 2 | 2-5-6 |
| 31 | |
Varsity 2 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Trojans | 3-5-6 |
| 32 | |
Vikings 2 | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Dogfish 2 | 1-5-6 |
| 33 | |
Rams | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Cougars | 2-4-5 |
| 34 | |
Tides | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Mariners V 2 | 1-5-6 |
| 35 | |
Varsity 2 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Dogfish 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 36 | |
Rams | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Trojans | 3-5-6 |
| 37 | |
Tides | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Vikings 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 38 | |
Cougars | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Mariners V 2 | 2-4-6 |
| 39 | |
Rams | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Dogfish 2 | 3-4-6 |
| 40 | |
Tides | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Varsity 2 | 3-5-6 |
| 41 | |
Cougars | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Trojans | 3-4-6 |
| 42 | |
Mariners V 2 | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Vikings 2 | 1-5-6 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.00 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
