| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Lincoln High School - Portland, OR | Cardinals | 0–0 |
| 2 |  |
Sehome High School | Mariners | 0–0 |
| 3 |  |
Bainbridge High School | Spartans 1 | 0–0 |
| 4 | |
Bainbridge High School | Spartans 2 | 0–0 |
| 5 |  |
Woodinville High School | Falcons | 0–0 |
| 6 |  |
North Kitsap High School | Varsity | 0–0 |
| 7 |  |
Orcas High School | Vikings 2 | 0–0 |
| 8 | |
Bainbridge High School | Spartans 3 | 0–0 |
| 9 | |
Orcas High School | Vikings 1 | 0–0 |
| 10 |  |
Oak Harbor High School | Wildcats | 0–0 |
| 11 |  |
Central Kitsap High School | Cougars | 0–0 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 440 team race matches sailed before 2015-04-18, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 12 of 14 matches (86%) with a log-loss of 0.330 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Bainbridge High School Spartans 1 | 5.48 | 8.48 | 6–0 | 5.3 | ≥+3.00 | 0.9 | 49% |
| 5 | Woodinville High School Falcons | 3.46 | 4.60 | 4–2 | 3.1 | +1.14 | 0.6 | 35% |
| 7 | Orcas High School Vikings 2 | 1.40 | 2.40 | 2–3 | 1.3 | +0.99 | 0.4 | 38% |
| 6 | North Kitsap High School Varsity | 3.08 | 2.41 | 2–4 | 2.6 | −0.67 | 0.2 | 85% |
| 8 | Bainbridge High School Spartans 3 | 1.79 | -1.21 | 0–5 | 1.8 | ≤−3.00 | 3.0 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Brown | Bainbridge High School | 1.42 | 4.42 | 6–0 | 5.3 | ≥+3.00 | 0.9 | 49% |
| Stasi Burzycki | Bainbridge High School | 1.72 | 4.72 | 6–0 | 5.3 | ≥+3.00 | 0.9 | 49% |
| Adam Didomizio | Woodinville High School | 0.94 | 2.08 | 4–2 | 3.1 | +1.14 | 0.6 | 35% |
| Domicick Wareham | Orcas High School | 0.84 | 1.83 | 2–3 | 1.3 | +0.99 | 0.4 | 38% |
| Kajetan Bullock | Orcas High School | 0.81 | 1.81 | 2–3 | 1.3 | +0.99 | 0.4 | 38% |
| Ronan Rankin | Orcas High School | -0.04 | 0.96 | 2–3 | 1.3 | +0.99 | 0.4 | 38% |
| Liam Sherry | North Kitsap High School | 1.28 | 0.61 | 2–4 | 2.6 | −0.67 | 0.2 | 85% |
| Anna Sherry | North Kitsap High School | 0.60 | -0.07 | 2–4 | 2.6 | −0.67 | 0.2 | 85% |
| Karl Anderson | Bainbridge High School | 0.82 | -2.18 | 0–5 | 1.8 | ≤−3.00 | 3.0 | >99% |
| Nicole Sanford | Bainbridge High School | 0.13 | -2.87 | 0–4 | 1.4 | ≤−3.00 | 2.5 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Rd | # | Winner | Loser | P(winner) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Bainbridge High School Spartans 1 | Woodinville High School Falcons | 84% | |
| 1 | 3 | Orcas High School Vikings 2 | Bainbridge High School Spartans 3 | 42% | upset |
| 1 | 5 | Bainbridge High School Spartans 1 | North Kitsap High School Varsity | 88% | |
| 1 | 7 | Woodinville High School Falcons | Bainbridge High School Spartans 3 | 77% | |
| 1 | 9 | North Kitsap High School Varsity | Orcas High School Vikings 2 | 79% | |
| 1 | 11 | Bainbridge High School Spartans 1 | Bainbridge High School Spartans 3 | 95% | |
| 1 | 13 | Woodinville High School Falcons | Orcas High School Vikings 2 | 83% | |
| 1 | 15 | North Kitsap High School Varsity | Bainbridge High School Spartans 3 | 67% | |
| 1 | 17 | Bainbridge High School Spartans 1 | Orcas High School Vikings 2 | 96% | |
| 1 | 19 | Woodinville High School Falcons | North Kitsap High School Varsity | 57% | |
| 5 | 41 | Orcas High School Vikings 2 | Bainbridge High School Spartans 3 | 43% | upset |
| 6 | 36 | Bainbridge High School Spartans 1 | Woodinville High School Falcons | 82% | |
| 6 | 40 | Bainbridge High School Spartans 1 | North Kitsap High School Varsity | 88% | |
| 6 | 44 | Woodinville High School Falcons | North Kitsap High School Varsity | 58% |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Spartans 1 | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Falcons | 1-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Vikings 2 | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Spartans 3 | 2-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Spartans 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Falcons | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Spartans 3 | 3-4-5 |
| 9 | |
Varsity | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Vikings 2 | 3-4-5 |
| 11 | |
Spartans 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Spartans 3 | 3-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Falcons | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Vikings 2 | 3-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Varsity | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Spartans 3 | 1-5-6 |
| 17 | |
Spartans 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Vikings 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 19 | |
Falcons | 3-5-6 | def. | |
Varsity | 1-2-4 DSQ,DSQ |
| 2 | |
Spartans 2 | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Mariners | 1-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Cardinals | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Vikings 1 | 1-4-6 |
| 6 | |
Wildcats | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Cougars | 4-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Cardinals | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Mariners | 2-3-6 |
| 10 | |
Spartans 2 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Vikings 1 | 3-4-6 |
| 12 | |
Mariners | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Wildcats | 4-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Spartans 2 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Cougars | 4-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Mariners | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Vikings 1 | 2-5-6 |
| 18 | |
Spartans 2 | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Cardinals | 1-5-6 |
| 20 | |
Vikings 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Wildcats | 3-5-6 |
| 21 | |
Mariners | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Cougars | 4-5-6 |
| 22 | |
Spartans 2 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Wildcats | 4-5-6 |
| 23 | |
Cardinals | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Cougars | 3-5-6 |
| 24 | |
Vikings 1 | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Cougars | 2-3-6 |
| 25 | |
Cardinals | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Wildcats | 4-5-6 |
| 27 | |
Vikings 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Wildcats | 3-4-6 |
| 29 | |
Vikings 2 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Cougars | 3-4-6 |
| 31 | |
Spartans 3 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Vikings 1 | 3-4-5 |
| 33 | |
Vikings 2 | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Wildcats | 2-4-6 |
| 35 | |
Spartans 3 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Cougars | 3-5-6 |
| 37 | |
Vikings 2 | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Vikings 1 | 2-5-6 |
| 39 | |
Wildcats | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Cougars | 3-4-6 |
| 41 | |
Vikings 2 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Spartans 3 | 3-5-6 |
| 43 | |
Vikings 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Cougars | 4-5-6 |
| 45 | |
Spartans 3 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Wildcats | 3-5-6 |
| 26 | |
Spartans 1 | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Spartans 2 | 2-3-6 |
| 28 | |
Cardinals | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Varsity | 2-4-6 |
| 30 | |
Mariners | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Falcons | 2-4-5 |
| 32 | |
Cardinals | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Spartans 1 | 3-4-5 |
| 34 | |
Spartans 2 | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Varsity | 2-3-6 |
| 36 | |
Spartans 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Falcons | 3-4-6 |
| 38 | |
Mariners | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Spartans 2 | 3-4-5 |
| 40 | |
Spartans 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 42 | |
Cardinals | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Spartans 2 | 3-4-5 |
| 44 | |
Falcons | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-5 |
| 46 | |
Mariners | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Spartans 1 | 2-5-6 |
| 47 | |
Spartans 2 | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Falcons | 2-4-6 |
| 48 | |
Cardinals | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Mariners | 3-4-5 |
| 49 | |
Mariners | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-5 |
| 50 | |
Cardinals | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Falcons | 3-4-5 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Bainbridge High School | Spartans 1 | Jackson Mccoy '15 Stasi Burzycki '15 William Brown '15 |
Hannah Harrison '15 Sophia Kasper '18 Francine Brownell '15 |
|
Woodinville High School | Falcons | Adam Didomizio '15 Connor Hughes '15 Erik Skeel '16 |
Megan Didomizio '17 Nina Sayed '15 Karl Skeel '16 |
|
North Kitsap High School | Varsity | Anna Sherry '19 Liam Sherry '16 Maddie Ekin '16 |
Nathan Grundmeier '19 Maddie Ekin '16 Julia Sherry '19 Anna Sherry '19 |
|
Orcas High School | Vikings 2 | Domicick Wareham '19 Kajetan Bullock '18 Ronan Rankin '19 |
Jadyn Kopp '18 Ronan Kau '19 Mccabe Webb '18 |
|
Bainbridge High School | Spartans 3 | Elizabeth Rolfes '17 Karl Anderson '16 Nicholas Dresel '15 Nicole Sanford '16 |
Joshua Rentz '15 Nicholas Dresel '15 Christoph Webber '18 Zachary Mellin '16 Nicole Sanford '16 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.08 means a rating gap counts about 7% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
