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Cascadia Cup Varsity

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 University of Washington University of Washington Huskies 9 11 20
2 Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 2 14 23 37
3 Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 1 24 14 38
4 University of British Columbia University of British Columbia UBC Thunderbirds 2 30 26 56
5 University of British Columbia University of British Columbia UBC Thunderbirds 1 30 31 61
6 University of Oregon University of Oregon Ducks 61 MRP 62 MRP 123 MRP
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 TOT Sailors
University of Washington University of Washington Huskies 1 2 2 1 1 1 1 9 Karl Skeel '20
Cora Knauss '18
Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 2 3 1 1 2 2 2 3 14 Chloe Dawson '20
Camille Ottaway '20
Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 1 2 4 3 5 4 4 2 24 Chandler Sharp '19
Reilly Berkshire '20
University of British Columbia University of British Columbia UBC Thunderbirds 1 4 DNS 5 4 3 3 4 30 Margaret Joba-Woodruff '20
Louise King '23
University of British Columbia University of British Columbia UBC Thunderbirds 2 5 3 4 3 5 5 5 30 Zelda Ladefoged '22
Molly Voltz '20
University of Oregon University of Oregon Ducks 6 5 6 6 6 6 6 61 MRP Duncan Jackson '19
Keevan Tallon '21
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 TOT Sailors
University of Washington University of Washington Huskies 1 1 3 2 1 1 2 11 Hayden Potter '20
Elizabeth Murphy '22
Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 1 2 3 2 1 3 2 1 14 Dillon Kilroy '19
Alanna Halliday '21
Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 2 4 4 1 4 4 3 3 23 Kendall Kracke '20
Yumi-Shika Shridhar '20
University of British Columbia University of British Columbia UBC Thunderbirds 2 3 2 4 3 5 5 4 26 Kayden Polachek '22
Mary Kristen '20
University of British Columbia University of British Columbia UBC Thunderbirds 1 5 5 5 5 2 4 5 31 Lauren Wittkopf '22
Jennifer Vincent '21
University of Oregon University of Oregon Ducks 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 62 MRP Mandy Watson '21 [1-2, 7]
Marelie Vorster '20 [3-4]
Tillie Morris '22 [5-6]
Tillie Morris '22 [1-4]
Marelie Vorster '20 [5-7]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.160+0.16
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2009 (12 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A
University of British ColumbiaUniversity of British Columbia UBC Thunderbirds 2999999999999
University of OregonUniversity of Oregon Ducks747474747474
University of WashingtonUniversity of Washington Huskies101010101010
Western Washington UniversityWestern Washington University Vikings 1555555

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B
University of British ColumbiaUniversity of British Columbia UBC Thunderbirds 2999999999999
University of OregonUniversity of Oregon Ducks747474747474
University of WashingtonUniversity of Washington Huskies101010101010
Western Washington UniversityWestern Washington University Vikings 1555555

Conditions — 10/20/2018 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 71%  ·  Pressure 1007.4 hPa

Temperature

61°F
↑ 66°F   ↓ 54°F
Feels like 58°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
6.1 kn
avg  ·  max 8.2 kn
Gusts to 19.0 kn
From W (265°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover76% Sunshine6.2 hrs Humidity71% Pressure1007.4 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: N 5 kn · NW 15 kn* (*weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Washington: an underdogs’ day (−0.03)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.06 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.03
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.26 ± 0.20)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 3% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Washington by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (37 labelled days at Washington).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →