| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Western Washington University | Vikings 2 | 4–1 |
| 2 |  |
Oregon State University | Beavers | 4–1 |
| 3 |  |
University of Washington | Huskies | 3–2 |
| 4 | |
Western Washington University | Vikings 1 | 3–2 |
| 5 | |
Western Washington University | Vikings 3 | 1–4 |
| 6 |  |
Lewis and Clark College | Pioneers | 0–5 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 7,487 team race matches sailed before 2017-03-04, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 6 of 10 matches (60%) with a log-loss of 0.853 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went poorly for the forecast. Orderliness −1.32 ± 0.57: an upset-heavy event, more orderly than 1% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Western Washington University Vikings 2 | 5 | 2.41 school +0.41, home +0.22 | Lena Captain / Grace Davidson Kendall Kracke / Aike Burger Gabrielle Rigby / Piper Wolters | 18% | 3–1 (75%) | +2.3 |
| 2 | Oregon State University Beavers | 2 | 4.90 school +0.20 | Quanah Green / Mitchell Baertlein Patrick (Drew) Ehlers / Natalie Shaw 2.20 Andrew Wilkinson / Thomas Hope 1.59 | 68% | 3–1 (75%) | +0.3 |
| 3 | University of Washington Huskies | 1 | 5.49 school −0.10 | Erik Skeel / Farzana Mohamedali Karl Skeel / Audrey Jacobs Laura Smit / Veronica Owen | 80% | 2–2 (50%) | −1.2 |
| 4 | Western Washington University Vikings 1 | 3 | 4.71 school +0.41, home +0.22 | Max Van Dam / Emily Tan Chloe Dawson / Camille Ottaway Ezekiel Ward / Hayley Rawden | 65% | 2–2 (50%) | −0.6 |
| 5 | Western Washington University Vikings 3 | 4 | 2.73 school +0.41, home +0.22 | Ryan Van Slyck / Madelyn Carr Audrey Prewitt / Wyatt Keysor Dillon Kilroy / Carter Erickson | 20% | 0–4 (0%) | −0.8 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Western Washington University Vikings 2 | 2.41 | 5.79 | 3–1 | 0.7 | +3.38 | 6.1 | 1% |
| 2 | Oregon State University Beavers | 4.90 | 5.37 | 3–1 | 2.7 | +0.47 | 0.1 | 60% |
| 4 | Western Washington University Vikings 1 | 4.71 | 3.77 | 2–2 | 2.6 | −0.94 | 0.4 | 93% |
| 3 | University of Washington Huskies | 5.49 | 3.74 | 2–2 | 3.2 | −1.75 | 1.6 | 99% |
| 5 | Western Washington University Vikings 3 | 2.73 | -0.27 | 0–4 | 0.8 | ≤−3.00 | 1.4 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lena Captain | Western Washington University | 0.52 | 3.91 | 3–1 | 0.7 | +3.38 | 6.1 | 1% |
| Gabrielle Rigby | Western Washington University | 0.35 | 3.73 | 3–1 | 0.7 | +3.38 | 6.1 | 1% |
| Patrick (Drew) Ehlers | Oregon State University | 2.20 | 2.67 | 3–1 | 2.7 | +0.47 | 0.1 | 60% |
| Andrew Wilkinson | Oregon State University | 1.59 | 2.06 | 3–1 | 2.7 | +0.47 | 0.1 | 60% |
| Ezekiel Ward | Western Washington University | 0.88 | -0.06 | 2–2 | 2.6 | −0.94 | 0.4 | 93% |
| Ryan Van Slyck | Western Washington University | 0.75 | -2.25 | 0–4 | 0.8 | ≤−3.00 | 1.4 | >99% |
| Audrey Prewitt | Western Washington University | 0.36 | -2.64 | 0–4 | 0.8 | ≤−3.00 | 1.4 | >99% |
| Dillon Kilroy | Western Washington University | 0.65 | -2.35 | 0–4 | 0.8 | ≤−3.00 | 1.4 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Rd | # | Winner | Loser | P(winner) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | Oregon State University Beavers | University of Washington Huskies | 39% | upset |
| 1 | 3 | University of Washington Huskies | Western Washington University Vikings 1 | 72% | |
| 1 | 4 | Western Washington University Vikings 1 | Western Washington University Vikings 2 | 93% | |
| 1 | 5 | Western Washington University Vikings 2 | Western Washington University Vikings 3 | 50% | upset |
| 1 | 6 | Western Washington University Vikings 1 | Western Washington University Vikings 3 | 89% | |
| 1 | 7 | Oregon State University Beavers | Western Washington University Vikings 1 | 51% | |
| 1 | 10 | Western Washington University Vikings 2 | Oregon State University Beavers | 8% | upset |
| 1 | 12 | Western Washington University Vikings 2 | University of Washington Huskies | 5% | upset |
| 1 | 14 | Oregon State University Beavers | Western Washington University Vikings 3 | 89% | |
| 1 | 15 | University of Washington Huskies | Western Washington University Vikings 3 | 93% |
| Team | Rec. | 2 | Beavers | Huskies | 1 | 3 | Pioneers | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Western Washington University Vikings 2 | 8–7 | ✕ | L | L | ✕ | ✕ | W |
| Oregon State University Beavers | 4–1 | W | ✕ | W | W | W | W |
| University of Washington Huskies | 3–2 | W | L | ✕ | W | W | W |
| Western Washington University Vikings 1 | 8–7 | ✕ | L | L | ✕ | ✕ | W |
| Western Washington University Vikings 3 | 8–7 | ✕ | L | L | ✕ | ✕ | W |
| Lewis and Clark College Pioneers | 0–5 | L | L | L | L | L | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Beavers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Pioneers | 4-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Beavers | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Huskies | 2-4-6 |
| 3 | |
Huskies | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Vikings 1 | 2-4-6 |
| 4 | |
Vikings 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Vikings 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Vikings 2 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Vikings 3 | 3-4-5 |
| 6 | |
Vikings 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Vikings 3 | 4-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Beavers | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Vikings 1 | 2-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Vikings 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Pioneers | 3-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Huskies | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Pioneers | 4-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Vikings 2 | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Beavers | 1-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Vikings 3 | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Pioneers | 1-4-6 |
| 12 | |
Vikings 2 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Huskies | 3-4-5 |
| 13 | |
Vikings 2 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Pioneers | 3-4-6 |
| 14 | |
Beavers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Vikings 3 | 3-4-6 |
| 15 | |
Huskies | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Vikings 3 | 1-5-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Western Washington University | Vikings 2 | Gabrielle Rigby '19 Kendall Kracke '20 Lena Captain '17 |
Piper Wolters '20 Aike Burger '18 Grace Davidson '17 |
|
Oregon State University | Beavers | Andrew Wilkinson '18 Patrick (Drew) Ehlers '19 Quanah Green '18 |
Thomas Hope '20 Natalie Shaw '20 Mitchell Baertlein '17 |
|
University of Washington | Huskies | Erik Skeel '20 Karl Skeel '20 Laura Smit '18 |
Farzana Mohamedali '20 Audrey Jacobs '18 Veronica Owen '18 |
|
Western Washington University | Vikings 1 | Chloe Dawson '20 Ezekiel Ward '20 Max Van Dam '20 |
Camille Ottaway '20 Hayley Rawden '18 Emily Tan '20 |
|
Western Washington University | Vikings 3 | Audrey Prewitt '20 Dillon Kilroy '19 Ryan Van Slyck '17 |
Wyatt Keysor '20 Carter Erickson '18 Madelyn Carr '20 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
