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Cascadia Cup

Analysis
# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Huskies 1 Huskies 1 Huskies 1 17 5 22
2 Huskies 3 Huskies 3 Huskies 3 19 16 35
3 Huskies 2 Huskies 2 Huskies 2 20 17 37
4 Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 2 22 22 44
5 University of British Columbia University of British Columbia Thunderbirds 1 23 27 50
6 Oregon State University Oregon State University Beavers 12 41 53
7 Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 1 29 24 53
8 Lewis and Clark College Lewis and Clark College Pioneers 31 24 55
9 Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 3 21 38 59
10 University of British Columbia University of British Columbia Thunderbirds 2 47 36 83
11 Ducks Ducks Ducks 39 47 86
12 University of Puget Sound University of Puget Sound Loggers 47 39 86
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
Oregon State University Oregon State University Beavers 1 3 5 3 12 Matthew Reynolds '20 [1-2]
Thomas Hope '20 [3-4]
Thomas Hope '20 [1-2]
Natalie Shaw '20 [3-4]
Huskies 1 Huskies 1 Huskies 1 8 2 2 5 17
Huskies 3 Huskies 3 Huskies 3 2 7 8 2 19
Huskies 2 Huskies 2 Huskies 2 4 8 7 1 20
Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 3 3 DNS 1 4 21 Chloe Dawson '20
Camille Ottaway '20
Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 2 5 5 4 8 22 Ezekiel Ward '20
Carter Erickson '18
University of British Columbia University of British Columbia Thunderbirds 1 DNF 1 3 6 23 Georg Lauritsen '20
Elmeri Hakkinen '18
Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 1 6 4 6 DNS 29 Ryan Van Slyck '17
Yumi-Shika Shridhar '20
Lewis and Clark College Lewis and Clark College Pioneers 9 6 9 7 31 Haines Whitacre '16 [1-2]
Torin Lee '17 [3-4]
Torin Lee '17 [1-2]
Haines Whitacre '16 [3-4]
Ducks Ducks Ducks 7 9 10 DNS 39
University of British Columbia University of British Columbia Thunderbirds 2 DNS DNS 11 10 47 Laura Stewart '17
Mary Kristen '20
University of Puget Sound University of Puget Sound Loggers DNF DNS 12 9 47 Samuel Jones '19
Aidan Deak '18
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
Huskies 1 Huskies 1 Huskies 1 1 1 2 1 5
Huskies 3 Huskies 3 Huskies 3 5 2 6 3 16
Huskies 2 Huskies 2 Huskies 2 7 3 3 4 17
Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 2 3 DNS 4 2 22 Max Van Dam '20
Grace Davidson '17
Lewis and Clark College Lewis and Clark College Pioneers 4 DNS 1 6 24 Haines Whitacre '16
Torin Lee '17
Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 1 6 4 9 5 24 Dillon Kilroy '19
Kendall Kracke '20
University of British Columbia University of British Columbia Thunderbirds 1 2 DNS 5 7 27 Hanno Kite-Powell '17
Stephanie Stearman '17
University of British Columbia University of British Columbia Thunderbirds 2 9 6 11 10 36 Mary Kristen '20
Crystal Song '19
Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 3 8 DNF 8 9 38 Gabrielle Rigby '19
Jocelyn Murphy '17
University of Puget Sound University of Puget Sound Loggers 10 5 12 12 39 Curtis Mraz '18
Madison Adams '19
Oregon State University Oregon State University Beavers DNS DNS 7 8 41 Quanah Green '18
Mitchell Baertlein '17
Ducks Ducks Ducks DNS DNS 10 11 47
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.100+0.10
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2009 (17 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A
University of British ColumbiaUniversity of British Columbia Thunderbirds 18989
University of British ColumbiaUniversity of British Columbia Thunderbirds 290901212
Lewis and Clark CollegeLewis and Clark College Pioneers8383
DucksDucks Ducks8181
Oregon State UniversityOregon State University Beavers767611
University of Puget SoundUniversity of Puget Sound Loggers838322
Huskies 1Huskies 1 Huskies 112128282
Huskies 2Huskies 2 Huskies 28181
Huskies 3Huskies 3 Huskies 382827676
Western Washington UniversityWestern Washington University Vikings 11133
Western Washington UniversityWestern Washington University Vikings 2228989
Western Washington UniversityWestern Washington University Vikings 3339090

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B
University of British ColumbiaUniversity of British Columbia Thunderbirds 190901212
University of British ColumbiaUniversity of British Columbia Thunderbirds 28181
Lewis and Clark CollegeLewis and Clark College Pioneers767611
DucksDucks Ducks12128282
Oregon State UniversityOregon State University Beavers838322
University of Puget SoundUniversity of Puget Sound Loggers1133
Huskies 1Huskies 1 Huskies 18181
Huskies 2Huskies 2 Huskies 282827676
Huskies 3Huskies 3 Huskies 38383
Western Washington UniversityWestern Washington University Vikings 1228989
Western Washington UniversityWestern Washington University Vikings 2339090
Western Washington UniversityWestern Washington University Vikings 38989

Conditions — 10/08/2016 (8am–6pm)

🌧️Slight rain
Humidity 96%  ·  Pressure 1016.8 hPa

Temperature

64°F
↑ 66°F   ↓ 63°F
Feels like 66°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.2 kn
avg  ·  max 6.8 kn
Gusts to 13.2 kn
From NE (37°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine0.0 hrs Humidity96% Pressure1016.8 hPa Rain0.38 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NE 9 kn · N 15 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Washington: an underdogs’ day (−0.08)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.07 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast −0.00
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.10 ± 0.27)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.08 means a rating gap counts about 7% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Washington by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (37 labelled days at Washington).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →