University of Oregon '19
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.10 (fleet 0.14) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 2–10 (17%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 | 1 | 1–5 | — |
| Spring 2016 | 1 | 1–5 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (12 matches) the record is 2–10 against 2.8 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−0.8). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 4 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-04-14 | NWICSA Team Race Qualifier | skipper | 0.57 | 3.12 | 1–5 | 0.1 | +2.55 | 2.2 | 9% |
| 2016-03-05 | NW Team Race | skipper | -0.01 | -1.90 | 1–5 | 2.7 | −1.89 | 2.2 | 99% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Rainier Cup | Skipper | A | 8 | 5.6 | 0.68 |
| NWICSA Team Race Qualifier | Skipper | TR | — | — | — |
| NWICSA Coed Champs | Skipper | A | 6 | 4.3 | -1.19 |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Outlaw | Skipper | A, B | 20 | 7.0 | A 0.42 · B -1.69 |
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Rainier Cup | Skipper | A | 1 | 11.0 | — |
| NWICSA Co-Ed Championships | Skipper | A | 6 | 4.3 | 0.50 |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| NWICSA Frosh/Soph | Skipper | A, B | 9 | 5.3 | 0.32 |
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Rainier Cup | Skipper | B | 4 | 8.2 | -0.03 |
| NWICSA Co-Ed Fleet Race | Skipper | B | 10 | 3.9 | 0.01 |
| NW Team Race | Skipper | TR | 9 | 0% | — |
| Jeff Mixdorf Alpha Worlds | Skipper | A | 8 | 4.9 | 0.89 |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| OUTLAW | Skipper | A | 2 | 9.0 | -0.92 |
| Cascadia Cup | Skipper | B | 6 | 12.0 | -1.02 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
