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# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 2 10 12 22
2 Oregon State University Oregon State University Beavers 3 12 16 28
3 Oregon State University Oregon State University Beavers 2 11 18 29
4 University of Oregon University of Oregon Ducks 1 9 32 41
5 Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 1 35 8 43
6 Lewis and Clark College Lewis and Clark College Pioneers 2 45 16 61
7 Portland State University Portland State University Vikings 29 37 66
8 Lewis and Clark College Lewis and Clark College Pioneers 1 32 43 75
9 Oregon State University Oregon State University Beavers 1 32 44 76
10 University of Oregon University of Oregon Ducks 2 35 64 99
11 University of Puget Sound University of Puget Sound Loggers 2 47 64 111
12 University of Puget Sound University of Puget Sound Loggers 1 49 64 113
13 University of Oregon University of Oregon Ducks 3 50 64 114
14 Oregon State University Oregon State University Beavers 4 64 50 114
15 University of Oregon University of Oregon Ducks 4 60 55 115
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
University of Oregon University of Oregon Ducks 1 2 1 3 3 9 Stephen Moran '16
Gretchen Rude '17
Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 2 3 3 2 2 10 Gabe Hill '16
Haley Bolin '17
Oregon State University Oregon State University Beavers 2 5 4 1 1 11 Andrew Wilkinson '18
Madison Thompson '16
Oregon State University Oregon State University Beavers 3 1 2 4 5 12 Jin Parisien '18
Chi-Chun Lee '19
Portland State University Portland State University Vikings 7 9 9 4 29 Quanah Green '17
No Show
Lewis and Clark College Lewis and Clark College Pioneers 1 8 7 10 7 32 Haines Whitacre '16
Dean Rienecker '18
Oregon State University Oregon State University Beavers 1 13 5 6 8 32 Alexander Muschler '16
No Show
University of Oregon University of Oregon Ducks 2 4 8 7 DNS 35 Rachel Day '17
No Show
Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 1 10 11 8 6 35 Lena Captain '17
Eleni Williams '19
Lewis and Clark College Lewis and Clark College Pioneers 2 11 13 5 DNS 45 No Show
No Show
University of Puget Sound University of Puget Sound Loggers 2 9 6 DNS DNS 47 No Show
No Show
University of Puget Sound University of Puget Sound Loggers 1 12 10 11 DNS 49 Lauren Engstrom '16
Ellen Hann '18
University of Oregon University of Oregon Ducks 3 6 12 DNS DNS 50 Sam Reul '19
No Show
University of Oregon University of Oregon Ducks 4 14 14 DNS DNS 60 Laura Trent '17
No Show
Oregon State University Oregon State University Beavers 4 DNF DNS DNF DNS 64 Patrick (Drew) Ehlers '19
Aike Burger '16
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 1 2 1 1 4 8 No Show
Tailor Smith '18
Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 2 3 2 5 2 12 Benjamin Kaas '17
Nikoline Alden '18
Lewis and Clark College Lewis and Clark College Pioneers 2 1 4 8 3 16 No Show
No Show
Oregon State University Oregon State University Beavers 3 9 3 3 1 16 Alexander Muschler '16
Oregon State University Oregon State University Beavers 2 4 5 4 5 18 Geoffrey Gonzalez '17
Abby Schamp '18
University of Oregon University of Oregon Ducks 1 8 DNS 2 6 32 No Show
Emily Tourtelot '17
Portland State University Portland State University Vikings DNS 7 7 7 37 Sierra Prior '16
No Show
Lewis and Clark College Lewis and Clark College Pioneers 1 5 6 DNS DNS 43 Robin Gropp '16
Schuyler Jones '17
Oregon State University Oregon State University Beavers 1 6 DNF 6 DNS 44 Cody Odou '17
Mitchell Baertlein '17
Oregon State University Oregon State University Beavers 4 10 8 DNS DNS 50 Theodore Bascom '19
Kyle Peterzã©N '16
University of Oregon University of Oregon Ducks 4 7 DNS DNS DNS 55 No Show
Patrick Townsend '18
University of Oregon University of Oregon Ducks 2 DNS DNS DNS DNS 64 No Show
No Show
University of Puget Sound University of Puget Sound Loggers 2 DNS DNS DNS DNS 64 No Show
No Show
University of Puget Sound University of Puget Sound Loggers 1 DNS DNS DNS DNS 64 No Show
Nadia Tomaszewski '19
University of Oregon University of Oregon Ducks 3 DNS DNS DNS DNS 64 No Show
No Show
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.170+0.17
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2012 (10 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A
Lewis and Clark CollegeLewis and Clark College Pioneers 172727272
University of OregonUniversity of Oregon Ducks 173737373
University of OregonUniversity of Oregon Ducks 274747474
Oregon State UniversityOregon State University Beavers 175757575
Oregon State UniversityOregon State University Beavers 276767676
Portland State UniversityPortland State University Vikings78787878
University of Puget SoundUniversity of Puget Sound Loggers 183838383
University of Puget SoundUniversity of Puget Sound Loggers 284848484
Western Washington UniversityWestern Washington University Vikings 187878787
Western Washington UniversityWestern Washington University Vikings 288888888

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B
Lewis and Clark CollegeLewis and Clark College Pioneers 172727272
University of OregonUniversity of Oregon Ducks 173737373
University of OregonUniversity of Oregon Ducks 274747474
Oregon State UniversityOregon State University Beavers 175757575
Oregon State UniversityOregon State University Beavers 276767676
Portland State UniversityPortland State University Vikings78787878
University of Puget SoundUniversity of Puget Sound Loggers 183838383
University of Puget SoundUniversity of Puget Sound Loggers 284848484
Western Washington UniversityWestern Washington University Vikings 187878787
Western Washington UniversityWestern Washington University Vikings 288888888

Conditions — 10/24/2015 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 53%  ·  Pressure 1011.8 hPa

Temperature

63°F
↑ 71°F   ↓ 49°F
Feels like 60°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
1.9 kn
avg  ·  max 3.6 kn
Gusts to 6.8 kn
From S (191°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover89% Sunshine7.1 hrs Humidity53% Pressure1011.8 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 5 kn · S 12 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Oregon: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.17)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.11 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast −0.07
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.23 ± 0.26)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.17 means a rating gap counts about 15% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Oregon by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 9 labelled days at Oregon, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →