Lewis and Clark College '16
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| -0.01 (fleet -0.02) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 5–7 (42%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2016 | 1 | 2–4 | — |
| Spring 2015 | 1 | 3–3 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (12 matches) the record is 5–7 against 1.8 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+3.2). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 4 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-03-05 | NW Team Race | skipper | 0.32 | 1.50 | 2–4 | 0.9 | +1.18 | 1.0 | 21% |
| 2015-03-07 | NW Team Race | skipper | 0.27 | 2.38 | 3–3 | 1.0 | +2.11 | 3.3 | 4% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2016 Season | |||||
| Western Canada Cup | Skipper | B | 9 | 12.6 | -1.47 |
| Rainier Cup | Skipper | A | 6 | 9.0 | 0.05 |
| NWICSA Co-Ed Fleet Race | Skipper | A | — | — | — |
| NW Team Race | Skipper | TR | 8 | 38% | — |
| Fall 2015 Season | |||||
| OUTLAW | Skipper | B | 2 | 5.5 | -2.09 |
| Frosh Soph | Crew | A | 6 | 6.7 | — |
| Cascadia Cup | Skipper | A | 7 | 8.6 | 0.95 |
| Spring 2015 Season | |||||
| NW Team Race | Skipper | TR | 6 | 50% | — |
| Fall 2014 Season | |||||
| OUTLAW | Skipper | A | 4 | 6.5 | 0.10 |
| Spring 2014 Season | |||||
| Rainier Cup | Skipper | A | 3 | 5.3 | -1.13 |
| Spring 2013 Season | |||||
| Rainier Cup | Skipper | B | 7 | 6.3 | 0.60 |
| Fall 2012 Season | |||||
| North/North | Skipper | B | 8 | 5.1 | 1.87 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
