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NW Team Race

# SchoolTeam Rec.
1 Oregon State University Oregon State University Beavers 1 5–1
2 University of Oregon University of Oregon Ducks 5–1
3 University of Washington University of Washington Huskies 4–2
4 Lewis and Clark College Lewis and Clark College Pioneers 3–3
5 Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 3–3
6 University of Puget Sound University of Puget Sound Loggers 1–5
7 Oregon State University Oregon State University Beavers 2 0–6
8 Portland State University Portland State University Vikings 0–0

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 4,322 team race matches sailed before 2015-03-07, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 15 of 21 matches (71%) with a log-loss of 0.556 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.31 ± 0.41: a typical event, more orderly than 18% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

PlaceSchool Pred. Strength Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) Pred. win % Recordvs forecast
1Oregon State University
Beavers 1		24.62Brian Hickman / Kyle Peterzã©N 1.79
Cody Odou / Aike Burger 1.51
Andrew Wilkinson / Madison Thompson		76%5–1 (83%)+0.5
2University of Oregon
Ducks		43.81
school +0.31		Ryan Fritsen / Janika Jordan 0.90
Eliza Pearce / Sarah Raulston 0.90
Stephen Moran / Gretchen Rude		60%5–1 (83%)+1.4
3University of Washington
Huskies		14.67
school +0.18		Kris Thompson / Cassidy Lynch 2.36
Tate Higgins / Melissa Hickenbottom
Kate Flanagan / Andrew Fitzgerald 1.18		76%4–2 (67%)−0.6
4Lewis and Clark College
Pioneers		71.59Robin Gropp / Olivia Rasmussen
Halloran Garvey / Melinda Gandara '??
Ryan Kazynski '?? / No Show		16%3–3 (50%)+2.0
5Western Washington University
Vikings		34.33
school +0.79, home +0.30		Gabe Hill / Haley Bolin 1.70
Jasmine Gerraty / Anna Pieri
Elsa Balton / Grace Davidson		69%3–3 (50%)−1.2
6University of Puget Sound
Loggers		52.51Ian Chandler / Aaron Wells
Hans Vroege / Elisabeth Dornisch
Caden Robinson / Blake Hessel		31%1–5 (17%)−0.8
7Oregon State University
Beavers 2		61.87Alexander Muschler / Ciara Anderson
Austin Sandifer / Erin Morrison 1.43
Geoffrey Gonzalez / Kimberly Smith		22%0–6 (0%)−1.3

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

PlaceSchoolStrength Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
4Lewis and Clark College Pioneers1.593.693–31.0+2.113.34%
2University of Oregon Ducks3.815.355–13.6+1.541.518%
1Oregon State University Beavers 14.625.185–14.5+0.550.254%
3University of Washington Huskies4.674.074–24.6−0.590.387%
6University of Puget Sound Loggers2.511.491–51.8−1.020.693%
5Western Washington University Vikings4.333.183–34.2−1.161.096%
7Oregon State University Beavers 21.87-1.130–61.3≤−3.002.4>99%

By skipper

SkipperSchoolValue Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
Robin GroppLewis and Clark College0.272.383–31.0+2.113.34%
Halloran GarveyLewis and Clark College0.222.333–31.0+2.113.34%
Ryan Kazynski '??Lewis and Clark College0.572.683–31.0+2.113.34%
Ryan FritsenUniversity of Oregon0.902.445–13.6+1.541.518%
Eliza PearceUniversity of Oregon0.902.455–13.6+1.541.518%
Stephen MoranUniversity of Oregon1.312.865–13.6+1.541.518%
Brian HickmanOregon State University1.792.345–14.5+0.550.254%
Cody OdouOregon State University1.512.065–14.5+0.550.254%
Andrew WilkinsonOregon State University1.141.705–14.5+0.550.254%
Kris ThompsonUniversity of Washington2.361.764–24.6−0.590.387%
Tate HigginsUniversity of Washington0.730.144–24.6−0.590.387%
Kate FlanaganUniversity of Washington1.180.594–24.6−0.590.387%
Ian ChandlerUniversity of Puget Sound0.57-0.451–51.8−1.020.693%
Hans VroegeUniversity of Puget Sound0.84-0.181–51.8−1.020.693%
Caden RobinsonUniversity of Puget Sound0.57-0.451–51.8−1.020.693%
Gabe HillWestern Washington University1.700.553–34.2−1.161.096%
Jasmine GerratyWestern Washington University0.84-0.323–34.2−1.161.096%
Elsa BaltonWestern Washington University0.41-0.743–34.2−1.161.096%
Alexander MuschlerOregon State University0.16-2.840–61.3≤−3.002.4>99%
Austin SandiferOregon State University1.43-1.570–61.3≤−3.002.4>99%
Geoffrey GonzalezOregon State University-0.05-3.050–61.3≤−3.002.4>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd#WinnerLoser P(winner)
11University of Washington HuskiesOregon State University Beavers 151%
12Oregon State University Beavers 1Western Washington University Vikings62%
13Lewis and Clark College PioneersWestern Washington University Vikings4%upset
14University of Oregon DucksLewis and Clark College Pioneers88%
15University of Oregon DucksOregon State University Beavers 290%
16University of Puget Sound LoggersOregon State University Beavers 256%
17University of Washington HuskiesUniversity of Puget Sound Loggers91%
18Western Washington University VikingsUniversity of Washington Huskies42%upset
19University of Oregon DucksWestern Washington University Vikings35%upset
110University of Oregon DucksUniversity of Puget Sound Loggers80%
111Oregon State University Beavers 1University of Puget Sound Loggers88%
112Oregon State University Beavers 1Oregon State University Beavers 294%
113Lewis and Clark College PioneersOregon State University Beavers 241%upset
114University of Washington HuskiesLewis and Clark College Pioneers95%
115University of Oregon DucksUniversity of Washington Huskies31%upset
116Oregon State University Beavers 1University of Oregon Ducks66%
117Oregon State University Beavers 1Lewis and Clark College Pioneers95%
118Lewis and Clark College PioneersUniversity of Puget Sound Loggers30%upset
119Western Washington University VikingsUniversity of Puget Sound Loggers84%
120Western Washington University VikingsOregon State University Beavers 292%
121University of Washington HuskiesOregon State University Beavers 294%

Round 1

TeamRec.1DucksHuskiesPioneersVikingsLoggers2
Oregon State University Beavers 15–7✕WLWLW✕
University of Oregon Ducks5–1L✕WWWWL
University of Washington Huskies4–2WL✕WLWW
Lewis and Clark College Pioneers3–3LLL✕WWL
Western Washington University Vikings3–3WLWL✕WW
University of Puget Sound Loggers1–5LLLLL✕L
Oregon State University Beavers 25–7✕WLWLW✕
# Winner Loser Pos.
1 University of Washington Huskies 1-2-6 def. Oregon State University Beavers 1 3-4-5
2 Oregon State University Beavers 1 1-2-4 def. Western Washington University Vikings 3-5-6
3 Lewis and Clark College Pioneers 1-2-4 def. Western Washington University Vikings 3-5-6
4 University of Oregon Ducks 1-2-4 def. Lewis and Clark College Pioneers 3-5-6
5 University of Oregon Ducks 1-2-3 def. Oregon State University Beavers 2 4-5-6
6 University of Puget Sound Loggers 1-2-4 def. Oregon State University Beavers 2 3-5-6
7 University of Washington Huskies 1-2-3 def. University of Puget Sound Loggers 4-5-6
8 Western Washington University Vikings 1-3-4 def. University of Washington Huskies 2-5-6
9 University of Oregon Ducks 1-2-4 def. Western Washington University Vikings 3-5-6
10 University of Oregon Ducks 1-2-3 def. University of Puget Sound Loggers 4-5-6
11 Oregon State University Beavers 1 1-2-3 def. University of Puget Sound Loggers 4-5-6
12 Oregon State University Beavers 1 1-2-3 def. Oregon State University Beavers 2 4-5-6
13 Lewis and Clark College Pioneers 1-2-5 def. Oregon State University Beavers 2 3-4-6
14 University of Washington Huskies 1-2-6 def. Lewis and Clark College Pioneers 3-4-5
15 University of Oregon Ducks 1-2-5 def. University of Washington Huskies 3-4-6
16 Oregon State University Beavers 1 1-2-5 def. University of Oregon Ducks 3-4-6
17 Oregon State University Beavers 1 1-2-3 def. Lewis and Clark College Pioneers 4-5-6
18 Lewis and Clark College Pioneers 2-3-4 def. University of Puget Sound Loggers 1-5-6
19 Western Washington University Vikings 1-2-3 def. University of Puget Sound Loggers 4-5-6
20 Western Washington University Vikings 1-2-4 def. Oregon State University Beavers 2 3-5-6
21 University of Washington Huskies 1-2-3 def. Oregon State University Beavers 2 4-5-6

Conditions — 03/07/2015 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 74%  ·  Pressure 1026.7 hPa

Temperature

49°F
↑ 55°F   ↓ 33°F
Feels like 46°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
2.8 kn
avg  ·  max 4.9 kn
Gusts to 8.7 kn
From WNW (300°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover3% Sunshine10.0 hrs Humidity74% Pressure1026.7 hPa

What this breeze does at Western Washington — from fleet racing

Breeze: NW about 6 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Western Washington in this breeze: a typical day (−0.01)
Nothing in this breeze favours either side in fleet racing here: results follow the ratings about as usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Western Washington by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (23 labelled fleet-race days at Western Washington).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →