Oregon State University '17
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.19 (fleet 1.64) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 17–20 (46%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2015 | 3 | 14–14 | — |
| Spring 2014 | 1 | 3–6 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 4 graded regattas (37 matches) the record is 17–20 against 11.3 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+5.7). 2 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 7 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-05-29 | LaserPerformance Team Race National Championships | skipper | 1.85 | 2.93 | 1–12 | 0.6 | +1.08 | 0.3 | 61% |
| 2015-04-25 | NW Team Race Quals | skipper | 1.71 | 3.39 | 8–1 | 5.4 | +1.68 | 2.7 | 7% |
| 2015-03-07 | NW Team Race | skipper | 1.51 | 2.06 | 5–1 | 4.5 | +0.55 | 0.2 | 54% |
| 2014-04-05 | NW Team Race Championship | skipper | 1.07 | 3.00 | 3–6 | 0.7 | +1.93 | 3.7 | 3% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| St Francis Interconference | Skipper | A | 13 | 9.2 | 2.27 |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Rose Bowl | Skipper | A | 8 | 19.5 | 1.56 |
| OUTLAW | Skipper | B | 2 | 6.0 | -2.61 |
| North North | Skipper | A | 6 | 3.3 | 1.93 |
| Cascadia Cup | Skipper | A | 7 | 5.7 | 1.79 |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Francis Interconference | Skipper | B | 7 | 10.0 | 1.95 |
| Rainier Cup | Skipper | A | 11 | 3.8 | 1.08 |
| NW Team Race Quals | Skipper | TR | 9 | 89% | — |
| LaserPerformance Team Race National Championships | Skipper | TR | 15 | 7% | — |
| NW Team Race | Skipper | TR | 6 | 83% | — |
| Gill Coed Western Semifinals | Skipper | A | 7 | 12.9 | 2.36 |
| Coed Qualifiers | Skipper | A | 7 | 3.0 | 1.37 |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Rose Bowl Regatta | Skipper | A | 8 | 21.0 | 1.23 |
| OUTLAW | Skipper | A | 5 | 4.8 | 1.29 |
| North/North NW Fall Champs | Skipper | A | 8 | 5.4 | 0.17 |
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Francis Interconference | Skipper | B | 9 | 15.9 | 1.19 |
| Rainier Cup | Skipper | B | 7 | 3.0 | 1.23 |
| NW Team Race Championship | Skipper | TR | 9 | 33% | — |
| Gill National Champs 1st round-East | Skipper | B | 6 | 14.8 | 1.12 |
| NWICSA Coed Qualifiers | Skipper | B | 6 | 3.0 | 1.33 |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Stoney Burke | Skipper | B | 1 | 22.0 | -1.53 |
| OUTLAW | Skipper | A | 6 | 6.8 | 1.35 |
| Fall 2009 Team page Season | |||||
| Stoney Burke | Skipper | B | 12 | 20.5 | -1.72 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
