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NW Team Race Quals

# SchoolTeam Rec.
1 Oregon State University Oregon State University Beavers 8–1
2 University of Oregon University of Oregon Ducks 5–4
3 University of Washington University of Washington Huskies 3–6
4 University of Victoria University of Victoria Vikes 2–7

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 5,709 team race matches sailed before 2015-04-25, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 14 of 18 matches (78%) with a log-loss of 0.575 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness +1.19 ± 0.89: an orderly event, more orderly than 100% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

PlaceSchool Pred. Strength Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) Pred. win % Recordvs forecast
1Oregon State University
Beavers		14.92
school −0.16		Brian Hickman / Kyle Peterzã©N 1.78
Cody Odou / Aike Burger 1.71
Andrew Wilkinson / Madison Thompson 1.46		60%8–1 (89%)+2.6
2University of Oregon
Ducks		24.77
school +0.54		Ryan Fritsen / Janika Jordan 1.29
Stephen Moran / Gretchen Rude 1.65
Eliza Pearce / Laura Trent 1.03		58%5–4 (56%)−0.2
3University of Washington
Huskies		34.59
school +0.10		Kris Thompson / Cassidy Lynch 2.41
Kate Flanagan / Audrey Jacobs 1.09
Colin Bartels / Athina Ebert		49%3–6 (33%)−1.4
4University of Victoria
Vikes		44.05Reid Cannon / Sarah Berry 1.49
David Berry / Nicki Le Baron 1.83
Leh Smallshaw / Thea Warren		33%2–7 (22%)−0.9

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

PlaceSchoolStrength Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
1Oregon State University4.926.608–15.4+1.682.77%
2University of Oregon4.774.685–45.2−0.100.069%
4University of Victoria4.053.522–72.9−0.530.385%
3University of Washington4.593.913–64.4−0.680.791%

By skipper

SkipperSchoolValue Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
Brian HickmanOregon State University1.783.468–15.4+1.682.77%
Cody OdouOregon State University1.713.398–15.4+1.682.77%
Andrew WilkinsonOregon State University1.463.158–15.4+1.682.77%
Ryan FritsenUniversity of Oregon1.291.205–45.2−0.100.069%
Stephen MoranUniversity of Oregon1.651.565–45.2−0.100.069%
Eliza PearceUniversity of Oregon1.030.945–45.2−0.100.069%
Reid CannonUniversity of Victoria1.490.962–72.9−0.530.385%
David BerryUniversity of Victoria1.831.302–72.9−0.530.385%
Leh SmallshawUniversity of Victoria0.27-0.262–72.9−0.530.385%
Kris ThompsonUniversity of Washington2.411.733–64.4−0.680.791%
Kate FlanaganUniversity of Washington1.090.413–64.4−0.680.791%
Colin BartelsUniversity of Washington0.58-0.103–64.4−0.680.791%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd#WinnerLoser P(winner)
11University of OregonUniversity of Victoria71%
12Oregon State UniversityUniversity of Oregon54%
13University of OregonUniversity of Washington62%
14Oregon State UniversityUniversity of Washington61%
15Oregon State UniversityUniversity of Victoria74%
16University of VictoriaUniversity of Washington36%upset
27University of OregonUniversity of Victoria67%
28Oregon State UniversityUniversity of Oregon52%
29University of OregonUniversity of Washington57%
210University of WashingtonOregon State University43%upset
211Oregon State UniversityUniversity of Victoria70%
212University of VictoriaUniversity of Washington37%upset
313University of OregonUniversity of Victoria66%
314Oregon State UniversityUniversity of Oregon51%
315University of WashingtonUniversity of Oregon45%upset
316Oregon State UniversityUniversity of Washington55%
317Oregon State UniversityUniversity of Victoria68%
318University of WashingtonUniversity of Victoria63%

Round 1

TeamRec.BeaversDucksHuskiesVikes
Oregon State University Beavers3–0✕WWW
University of Oregon Ducks2–1L✕WW
University of Washington Huskies0–3LL✕L
University of Victoria Vikes1–2LLW✕

Round 2

TeamRec.BeaversDucksHuskiesVikes
Oregon State University Beavers2–1✕WLW
University of Oregon Ducks2–1L✕WW
University of Washington Huskies1–2WL✕L
University of Victoria Vikes1–2LLW✕

Round 3

TeamRec.BeaversDucksHuskiesVikes
Oregon State University Beavers3–0✕WWW
University of Oregon Ducks1–2L✕LW
University of Washington Huskies2–1LW✕W
University of Victoria Vikes0–3LLL✕
# Winner Loser Pos.
1 University of Oregon Ducks 1-2-4 def. University of Victoria Vikes 3-5-6
2 Oregon State University Beavers 1-2-3 def. University of Oregon Ducks 4-5-6
3 University of Oregon Ducks 1-3-4 def. University of Washington Huskies 2-5-6
4 Oregon State University Beavers 2-3-4 def. University of Washington Huskies 1-5-6
5 Oregon State University Beavers 1-2-4 def. University of Victoria Vikes 3-5-6
6 University of Victoria Vikes 2-3-4 def. University of Washington Huskies 1-5-6
7 University of Oregon Ducks 1-2-3 def. University of Victoria Vikes 4-5-6
8 Oregon State University Beavers 1-2-5 def. University of Oregon Ducks 3-4-6
9 University of Oregon Ducks 1-3-4 def. University of Washington Huskies 2-5-6
10 University of Washington Huskies 1-3-5 def. Oregon State University Beavers 2-4-6
11 Oregon State University Beavers 1-4-5 def. University of Victoria Vikes 2-3-6
12 University of Victoria Vikes 1-2-5 def. University of Washington Huskies 3-4-6
13 University of Oregon Ducks 1-2-6 def. University of Victoria Vikes 3-4-5
14 Oregon State University Beavers 1-2-5 def. University of Oregon Ducks 3-4-6
15 University of Washington Huskies 1-2-5 def. University of Oregon Ducks 3-4-6
16 Oregon State University Beavers 1-2-4 def. University of Washington Huskies 3-5-6
17 Oregon State University Beavers 1-2-4 def. University of Victoria Vikes 3-5-6
18 University of Washington Huskies 1-2-5 def. University of Victoria Vikes 3-4-6

Conditions — 04/25/2015 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 50%  ·  Pressure 1012.4 hPa

Temperature

48°F
↑ 52°F   ↓ 42°F
Feels like 42°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
2.7 kn
avg  ·  max 5.4 kn
Gusts to 11.3 kn
From SW (223°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine6.4 hrs Humidity50% Pressure1012.4 hPa Rain0.02 in

What this breeze does at Washington — from fleet racing

Breeze: SW about 6 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Washington in this breeze: a typical day (−0.00)
Nothing in this breeze favours either side in fleet racing here: results follow the ratings about as usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.00 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Washington by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (37 labelled fleet-race days at Washington).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →