University of Oregon '15
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.60 (fleet 0.83) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 13–11 (54%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2015 | 2 | 10–5 | — |
| Spring 2013 | 1 | 3–6 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (24 matches) the record is 13–11 against 9.5 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+3.5). 2 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 6 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-04-25 | NW Team Race Quals | skipper | 1.03 | 0.94 | 5–4 | 5.2 | −0.10 | 0.0 | 69% |
| 2015-03-07 | NW Team Race | skipper | 0.90 | 2.45 | 5–1 | 3.6 | +1.54 | 1.5 | 18% |
| 2013-05-04 | NW Team Race Qualifiers | skipper | 0.52 | 2.68 | 3–6 | 0.7 | +2.16 | 4.0 | 2% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Francis Interconference | Skipper | A | 6 | 14.8 | 1.45 |
| Sperry Women's Eastern Semifinal Women's | Skipper | A | 13 | 13.3 | 0.02 |
| NW Team Race Quals | Skipper | TR | 9 | 56% | — |
| NW Team Race | Skipper | TR | 6 | 83% | — |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Stoney Burke | Skipper | A | 6 | 22.0 | 0.12 |
| Pacific Coast Championship | Skipper | B | 9 | 14.0 | 1.06 |
| OUTLAW | Skipper | A | 4 | 6.0 | 0.22 |
| Pacific Coast Champs - 2 Div | Skipper | B | 9 | 14.0 | 1.06 |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Stoney Burke | Skipper | A | 6 | 22.0 | -0.72 |
| OUTLAW | Skipper | A | 6 | 10.0 | 0.39 |
| North/North | Skipper | A | 6 | 8.3 | -0.54 |
| Fall Dinghy Championship - 2 div | Skipper | B | — | — | — |
| Pacific Coast Championship | Skipper | B | — | — | — |
| Spring 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| StFYC Interconference | Skipper | A | 9 | 20.0 | 0.53 |
| Rainier Cup | Skipper | A | 6 | 6.0 | 0.72 |
| NWICSA Coed Conference Championship | Skipper | B | 4 | 3.8 | 0.88 |
| NW Team Race Qualifiers | Skipper | TR | 9 | 33% | — |
| Fall 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| Stoney Burke Regatta | Skipper | A | 8 | 18.8 | -2.12 |
| Rose Bowl Regatta | Skipper | B | 4 | 15.0 | 1.59 |
| Frosh-Soph | Skipper | A | 8 | 6.2 | -0.04 |
| Spring 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| Southern Series Two | Skipper | A | 4 | 12.0 | 0.33 |
| Rainier Cup | Skipper | A | 8 | 7.4 | 0.14 |
| PSU Gorge Invite | Skipper | A | 4 | 19.0 | -1.05 |
| 83rd Boston Dinghy Challenge Cup | Skipper | C | 18 | 17.3 | -0.42 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
