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Rainier Cup

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 University of Washington University of Washington Huskies 16 26 42
2 Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 2 29 20 49
3 University of Washington University of Washington Husky Women 46 25 71
4 Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 1 47 25 72
5 University of Oregon University of Oregon Ducks 17 69 86
6 Portland State University Portland State University Vikings 56 32 88
7 Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 55 42 97
8 University of Oregon University of Oregon Women's 59 64 123
9 Oregon State University Oregon State University Oregon State 67 65 132
10 University of Puget Sound University of Puget Sound Puget Sound 48 88 136
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
University of Washington University of Washington Huskies 3 1 1 4 2 1 3 1 16 Karl Haelsig '14
Sarah Redmond '15
University of Oregon University of Oregon Ducks 1 2 3 1 1 2 2 5 17 Philip Gordon '12
Jamie Wai '12
Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 2 2 3 4 5 3 4 6 2 29 Erika Vranizan '12
Ashley Krzeszowski '15
University of Washington University of Washington Husky Women 4 7 2 7 4 3 10 9 46 Lily Grimshaw '15 [1-6]
Molly Utter '14 [7-8]
Molly Utter '14 [1-6]
Jordan Cutter '14 [7-8]
Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 1 9 5 5 3 5 7 9 4 47 Ian Reeves '12
Sarah Hanavan '13
University of Puget Sound University of Puget Sound Puget Sound 5 9 10 2 6 5 4 7 48 David Eva '12 [1-2, 5-6]
Mike Knape '12 [3-4, 7-8]
Emma Franz '15 [1-2, 5-6]
Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 8 6 7 9 7 10 5 3 55 Alex Lubben '13
Katherine Nickele '12
Portland State University Portland State University Vikings 7 8 6 10 8 6 1 10 56 Leila Whitney '13
Alyssa Staples '14
University of Oregon University of Oregon Women's 6 4 9 8 9 8 7 8 59 Eliza Pearce '15
Katherine Emberley '13
Oregon State University Oregon State University Oregon State 10 10 8 6 10 9 8 6 67 Brian Hickman '15
Erin Morrison '15
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 2 5 4 3 2 2 1 2 1 20 Ashley Vincent '12
Angela Gossom '13
University of Washington University of Washington Husky Women 2 3 2 3 1 4 4 6 25 Alyce Flanagan '13 [1-8]
Ivy Gooch '12 [1-4, 7-8]
Jordan Cutter '14 [5-6]
Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 1 6 1 1 1 4 2 6 4 25 Casey Pruitt '13
Debbi Kenote '13
University of Washington University of Washington Huskies 3 2 BKD BKD 6 5 1 3 26 Zachary Forcade '13 [1-2, 5-6]
Christopher Fuller '12 [3-4, 7-8]
Caylin Cordray '13 [1-2, 5-6]
Portland State University Portland State University Vikings 1 8 4 4 7 3 3 2 32 Scott Van Bergen '15
Brianne Busey '14
Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 4 5 5 5 3 6 5 9 42 George Powell '13
Matthew Sullivan '14
University of Oregon University of Oregon Women's 8 6 DNF DNF 8 7 8 5 64 Laura Marshall '12
Kaili Swetland '14
Oregon State University Oregon State University Oregon State 9 9 7 DNF 5 8 9 7 65 Carl Fixsen '12 [1-2, 7-8]
Jeffrey Hickman '13 [3-6]
Cragan Smith '14 [1-2, 7-8]
University of Oregon University of Oregon Ducks 7 7 DNF DNF 9 9 7 8 69 Ryan Fritsen '14
Jan Raether '15
University of Puget Sound University of Puget Sound Puget Sound DNF DNF DNF DNF DNF DNF DNF DNF 88 David Eva '12 [1-2, 5-6]
Mike Knape '12 [3-4, 7-8]
Emma Franz '15 [1-2, 5-6]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.170+0.17
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2012 (10 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A
Northwestern UniversityNorthwestern University Wildcats747477778282
University of OregonUniversity of Oregon Ducks7373757581818383
University of OregonUniversity of Oregon Women's7474777782828787
Oregon State UniversityOregon State University Oregon State7575818183838888
Portland State UniversityPortland State University Vikings777782828787
University of Puget SoundUniversity of Puget Sound Puget Sound8383888873737575
University of WashingtonUniversity of Washington Huskies8181838388887373
University of WashingtonUniversity of Washington Husky Women828287877474
Western Washington UniversityWestern Washington University Vikings 1878774747777
Western Washington UniversityWestern Washington University Vikings 28888737375758181

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B
Northwestern UniversityNorthwestern University Wildcats7373757581818383
University of OregonUniversity of Oregon Ducks7474777782828787
University of OregonUniversity of Oregon Women's7575818183838888
Oregon State UniversityOregon State University Oregon State777782828787
Portland State UniversityPortland State University Vikings8181838388887373
University of Puget SoundUniversity of Puget Sound Puget Sound878774747777
University of WashingtonUniversity of Washington Huskies828287877474
University of WashingtonUniversity of Washington Husky Women8383888873737575
Western Washington UniversityWestern Washington University Vikings 18888737375758181
Western Washington UniversityWestern Washington University Vikings 2747477778282
School / Team SkipperCrew
Northwestern University Northwestern University Alex Lubben '13 Katherine Nickele '12
Wildcats George Powell '13 Matthew Sullivan '14
Oregon State University Oregon State University Brian Hickman '15 Erin Morrison '15
Oregon State Carl Fixsen '12 [1-2, 7-8]
Jeffrey Hickman '13 [3-6]		 Cragan Smith '14 [1-2, 7-8]
Portland State University Portland State University Leila Whitney '13 Alyssa Staples '14
Vikings Scott Van Bergen '15 Brianne Busey '14
University of Oregon University of Oregon Philip Gordon '12 Jamie Wai '12
Ducks Ryan Fritsen '14 Jan Raether '15
University of Oregon University of Oregon Eliza Pearce '15 Katherine Emberley '13
Women's Laura Marshall '12 Kaili Swetland '14
University of Puget Sound University of Puget Sound David Eva '12 [1-2, 5-6]
Mike Knape '12 [3-4, 7-8]		 Emma Franz '15 [1-2, 5-6]
Puget Sound David Eva '12 [1-2, 5-6]
Mike Knape '12 [3-4, 7-8]		 Emma Franz '15 [1-2, 5-6]
University of Washington University of Washington Karl Haelsig '14 Sarah Redmond '15
Huskies Zachary Forcade '13 [1-2, 5-6]
Christopher Fuller '12 [3-4, 7-8]		 Caylin Cordray '13 [1-2, 5-6]
University of Washington University of Washington Lily Grimshaw '15 [1-6]
Molly Utter '14 [7-8]		 Molly Utter '14 [1-6]
Jordan Cutter '14 [7-8]
Husky Women Alyce Flanagan '13 [1-8] Ivy Gooch '12 [1-4, 7-8]
Jordan Cutter '14 [5-6]
Western Washington University Western Washington University Ian Reeves '12 Sarah Hanavan '13
Vikings 1 Casey Pruitt '13 Debbi Kenote '13
Western Washington University Western Washington University Erika Vranizan '12 Ashley Krzeszowski '15
Vikings 2 Ashley Vincent '12 Angela Gossom '13

Conditions — 04/14/2012 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 64%  ·  Pressure 1019.8 hPa

Temperature

53°F
↑ 60°F   ↓ 41°F
Feels like 49°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
3.4 kn
avg  ·  max 4.8 kn
Gusts to 14.8 kn
From WNW (287°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover95% Sunshine9.4 hrs Humidity64% Pressure1019.8 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: W 17 kn · W 6 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Oregon: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.20)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.05 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast −0.15
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.11 ± 0.16)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.20 means a rating gap counts about 17% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Oregon by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 9 labelled days at Oregon, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →