University of Washington '13
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.53 (fleet 2.12) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 23–17 (57%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2013 | 3 | 23–17 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (22 matches) the record is 11–11 against 10.6 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+0.4). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 0 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013-05-25 | APS Team Race Championship | skipper | 2.17 | 2.28 | 2–11 | 1.9 | +0.11 | 0.0 | 67% |
| 2013-05-04 | NW Team Race Qualifiers | skipper | 2.14 | 5.14 | 9–0 | 8.7 | ≥+3.00 | 0.4 | 74% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| StFYC Interconference | Skipper | B | 7 | 5.7 | 2.91 |
| South 5 Designate | Skipper | B | 10 | 4.8 | 2.68 |
| College Sailing Eastern Semifinals | Skipper | B | 4 | 15.0 | 0.59 |
| Rainier Cup | Skipper | A | 7 | 3.4 | 2.13 |
| NWICSA Coed Conference Championship | Skipper | B | 10 | 2.0 | 2.28 |
| NW Team Race Qualifiers | Skipper | TR | 9 | 100% | — |
| Jeremy McIntyre Team Race | Skipper | TR | 21 | 62% | — |
| APS Team Race Championship | Skipper | TR | 13 | 15% | — |
| Fall 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| North/North | Skipper | A | 8 | 4.9 | 2.39 |
| Spring 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Francis Interconference | Skipper | B | 7 | 10.9 | 1.93 |
| Rainier Cup | Skipper | B | 4 | 4.0 | 1.24 |
| ICSA Western Semi-Final | Skipper | B | 7 | 15.3 | 0.84 |
| Fall 2011 Team page Season | |||||
| Pacific Coast Championships | Skipper | C | 8 | 8.2 | 1.90 |
| North/North | Skipper | B | 6 | 3.5 | 2.17 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
