Jeremy McIntyre Team Race

HostStanford
Date03/02/2013
TypeNOT ALLOWED Interconference
Boat420/FJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Stanford University	Cardinal	20–1
2	University of Hawaii	Rainbows	15–6
3	University of Washington	Huskies	13–8
4	University of California at San Diego	Tritons	11–10
5	California Maritime Academy	Keelhaulers	9–9
5	University of California at Irvine	Anteaters	9–9
7	Northwestern University	Wildcats	7–11
8	Western Washington University	Vikings	6–12
9	University of Southern California	Trojans	5–13
10	University of California at Los Angeles	Bruins	1–17

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 133 team race matches sailed before 2013-03-02, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 52 of 79 matches (66%) with a log-loss of 0.675 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went poorly for the forecast. vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Stanford University Cardinal	1	11.94 school −0.34, home +-0.34	Sarah Mace / Katie Riklin Molly Mckinney / Natalie Urban Antoine Screve / Samantha Steele 4.35	99%	4–0 (100%)	+0.0
2	University of Hawaii Rainbows	3	10.16	Mitchell Icard / Ana-Melissa Kea Madeline Kennedy / Lindsay Stewart Giacomo Paoletti / Kellie Yamada 11–0 Adam Pokras / Kellie Yamada 4–3	74%	15–3 (83%)	+1.6
3	University of Washington Huskies	5	10.22	Zachary Forcade / Caylin Cordray Karl Haelsig / Sarah Redmond Kris Thompson / Molly Utter	71%	12–6 (67%)	−0.8
4	University of California at San Diego Tritons	4	10.03	John Olson / Jonathan Schafgans Nicolas Delfino / Charlie Davidson Matthew Morris / Caitlin Riley	72%	11–7 (61%)	−1.9
5	California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers	2	10.69	Matthew Van Rensselaer / Emelia Sween Scott Doyle / Stephen Katz Chris Vilicich / Ryan Orphan	83%	9–7 (56%)	−4.3
5	University of California at Irvine Anteaters	8	7.77	Brian Hoover / William Larsen Samuel Heller / Kate Andersen Nicholas Weis / Finnian Sheehan	32%	9–9 (50%)	+3.2
7	Northwestern University Wildcats	7	7.61	Ryan Anderson / Noah Aldonas Michael Cornew / Laura Rozier 6–8 Jacob Bruce / Molly Conroy 5–5 Travis Cottle / Molly Conroy 2–4 Ryan Anderson / Laura Rozier 1–1	37%	7–9 (44%)	+1.1
8	Western Washington University Vikings	9	5.85	Alexander Halliday / Emily Levalley Alex Waldron / Rachael Mccrady Debbi Kenote / Gabe Hill	12%	6–10 (38%)	+4.0
9	University of Southern California Trojans	6	8.14	Cameron Hutcheson / Hollis Barth John Coakley / Nicole Bosetti Kendall Sanson / Olivia Gebelein	40%	5–13 (28%)	−2.1
10	University of California at Los Angeles Bruins	10	5.76	Emelia Pelliccio / Carly Olenick Erica Parker / Allison Skager Gabriel Monti / Justina Leo	11%	1–15 (6%)	−0.7

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
1	Stanford University	11.94	14.94	4–0	4.0	≥+3.00	0.1	96%
8	Western Washington University	5.85	8.02	6–10	2.0	+2.17	6.7	<1%
5	University of California at Irvine	7.77	9.18	9–9	5.8	+1.40	3.3	3%
2	University of Hawaii	10.16	10.84	15–3	13.4	+0.68	0.8	25%
7	Northwestern University	7.61	8.10	7–9	5.9	+0.49	0.4	34%
3	University of Washington	10.22	9.90	12–6	12.8	−0.32	0.2	80%
4	University of California at San Diego	10.03	9.31	11–7	12.9	−0.72	1.0	94%
10	University of California at Los Angeles	5.76	4.99	1–15	1.7	−0.77	0.4	89%
9	University of Southern California	8.14	7.11	5–13	7.1	−1.03	1.6	97%
5	California Maritime Academy	10.69	8.60	9–7	13.3	−2.10	6.8	>99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Sarah Mace	Stanford University	3.61	6.61	4–0	4.0	≥+3.00	0.1	96%
Molly Mckinney	Stanford University	3.59	6.59	4–0	4.0	≥+3.00	0.1	96%
Antoine Screve	Stanford University	4.35	7.35	4–0	4.0	≥+3.00	0.1	96%
Giacomo Paoletti	University of Hawaii	2.74	5.74	11–0	8.4	≥+3.00	4.8	3%
Alexander Halliday	Western Washington University	1.24	3.42	6–10	2.0	+2.17	6.7	<1%
Alex Waldron	Western Washington University	0.82	2.99	6–10	2.0	+2.17	6.7	<1%
Debbi Kenote	Western Washington University	1.07	3.25	6–10	2.0	+2.17	6.7	<1%
Jacob Bruce	Northwestern University	1.51	3.10	5–5	2.7	+1.59	2.8	5%
Brian Hoover	University of California at Irvine	2.14	3.54	9–9	5.8	+1.40	3.3	3%
Samuel Heller	University of California at Irvine	1.50	2.90	9–9	5.8	+1.40	3.3	3%
Nicholas Weis	University of California at Irvine	1.27	2.67	9–9	5.8	+1.40	3.3	3%
Michael Cornew	Northwestern University	2.30	3.11	6–8	4.4	+0.81	0.9	20%
Mitchell Icard	University of Hawaii	1.83	2.50	15–3	13.4	+0.68	0.8	25%
Madeline Kennedy	University of Hawaii	2.87	3.54	15–3	13.4	+0.68	0.8	25%
Ryan Anderson	Northwestern University	1.57	1.80	8–10	7.4	+0.23	0.1	48%
Zachary Forcade	University of Washington	2.23	1.91	12–6	12.8	−0.32	0.2	80%
Kris Thompson	University of Washington	1.69	1.37	12–6	12.8	−0.32	0.2	80%
John Olson	University of California at San Diego	1.98	1.26	11–7	12.9	−0.72	1.0	94%
Nicolas Delfino	University of California at San Diego	1.88	1.16	11–7	12.9	−0.72	1.0	94%
Emelia Pelliccio	University of California at Los Angeles	1.82	1.05	1–15	1.7	−0.77	0.4	89%
Erica Parker	University of California at Los Angeles	1.20	0.43	1–15	1.7	−0.77	0.4	89%
Gabriel Monti	University of California at Los Angeles	0.02	-0.75	1–15	1.7	−0.77	0.4	89%
Adam Pokras	University of Hawaii	3.36	2.55	4–3	5.0	−0.81	0.6	91%
Cameron Hutcheson	University of Southern California	3.38	2.35	5–13	7.1	−1.03	1.6	97%
John Coakley	University of Southern California	1.08	0.05	5–13	7.1	−1.03	1.6	97%
Kendall Sanson	University of Southern California	0.81	-0.22	5–13	7.1	−1.03	1.6	97%
Travis Cottle	Northwestern University	1.47	0.07	2–4	3.2	−1.39	1.2	97%
Matthew Van Rensselaer	California Maritime Academy	2.47	0.37	9–7	13.3	−2.10	6.8	>99%
Scott Doyle	California Maritime Academy	2.39	0.30	9–7	13.3	−2.10	6.8	>99%
Chris Vilicich	California Maritime Academy	3.11	1.02	9–7	13.3	−2.10	6.8	>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	University of California at Irvine	Northwestern University	39%	upset
1	2	University of Washington	University of California at Los Angeles	99%
1	3	University of California at San Diego	California Maritime Academy	31%	upset
1	4	University of Hawaii	Western Washington University	99%
1	5	Stanford University	University of Southern California	100%
1	6	Northwestern University	University of California at Los Angeles	91%
1	7	University of California at San Diego	University of Washington	45%	upset
1	8	University of Hawaii	California Maritime Academy	52%
1	9	Western Washington University	University of Southern California	10%	upset
1	10	Stanford University	University of California at Irvine	100%
1	11	University of California at San Diego	Northwestern University	86%
1	12	University of Hawaii	University of Washington	67%
1	13	California Maritime Academy	University of Southern California	94%
1	15	University of California at Irvine	University of California at Los Angeles	87%
1	16	University of Washington	Northwestern University	93%
1	17	University of Hawaii	University of California at San Diego	40%	upset
1	18	California Maritime Academy	Western Washington University	99%
1	20	University of California at Irvine	University of Southern California	41%	upset
1	21	University of Hawaii	Northwestern University	89%
1	22	California Maritime Academy	University of Washington	65%
1	23	University of California at San Diego	Western Washington University	99%
1	24	University of Southern California	University of California at Los Angeles	93%
1	26	University of Washington	University of California at Irvine	94%
1	27	Northwestern University	California Maritime Academy	4%	upset
1	28	University of California at San Diego	University of California at Los Angeles	99%
1	29	University of Hawaii	University of Southern California	83%
1	30	University of Washington	Western Washington University	99%
1	32	University of California at San Diego	University of California at Irvine	92%
1	33	University of Southern California	Northwestern University	62%
1	34	University of Hawaii	University of California at Los Angeles	98%
1	36	California Maritime Academy	University of California at Irvine	96%
1	37	University of California at San Diego	University of Southern California	87%
1	38	Western Washington University	University of California at Los Angeles	47%	upset
1	40	University of Hawaii	University of California at Irvine	87%
1	41	University of Washington	University of Southern California	87%
1	42	Northwestern University	Western Washington University	75%
1	43	California Maritime Academy	University of California at Los Angeles	99%
1	45	University of California at Irvine	Western Washington University	87%
2	46	University of California at Irvine	Northwestern University	45%	upset
2	47	University of Washington	University of California at Los Angeles	99%
2	48	University of California at San Diego	California Maritime Academy	31%	upset
2	49	University of Hawaii	Western Washington University	99%
2	50	Stanford University	University of Southern California	98%
2	51	Northwestern University	University of California at Los Angeles	90%
2	52	University of Washington	University of California at San Diego	55%
2	53	California Maritime Academy	University of Hawaii	49%	upset
2	54	University of Southern California	Western Washington University	91%
2	55	Stanford University	University of California at Irvine	99%
2	56	University of California at San Diego	Northwestern University	87%
2	57	University of Washington	University of Hawaii	34%	upset
2	58	California Maritime Academy	University of Southern California	93%
2	60	University of California at Irvine	University of California at Los Angeles	88%
2	61	Northwestern University	University of Washington	7%	upset
2	62	University of Hawaii	University of California at San Diego	42%	upset
2	63	California Maritime Academy	Western Washington University	99%
2	65	University of Southern California	University of California at Irvine	59%
2	66	University of Hawaii	Northwestern University	89%
2	67	University of Washington	California Maritime Academy	35%	upset
2	68	University of California at San Diego	Western Washington University	98%
2	69	University of Southern California	University of California at Los Angeles	92%
2	71	University of California at Irvine	University of Washington	8%	upset
2	72	Northwestern University	California Maritime Academy	4%	upset
2	73	University of California at Los Angeles	University of California at San Diego	1%	upset
2	74	University of Hawaii	University of Southern California	81%
2	75	Western Washington University	University of Washington	1%	upset
2	77	University of California at Irvine	University of California at San Diego	9%	upset
2	78	Northwestern University	University of Southern California	36%	upset
2	79	University of Hawaii	University of California at Los Angeles	98%
2	81	University of California at Irvine	California Maritime Academy	5%	upset
2	82	University of California at San Diego	University of Southern California	86%
2	83	Western Washington University	University of California at Los Angeles	50%	upset
2	85	University of Hawaii	University of California at Irvine	87%
2	86	University of Washington	University of Southern California	87%
2	87	Western Washington University	Northwestern University	26%	upset
2	88	California Maritime Academy	University of California at Los Angeles	99%
2	90	Western Washington University	University of California at Irvine	13%	upset
2	91	University of Washington	University of Hawaii	35%	upset
2	93	University of Hawaii	University of California at San Diego	44%	upset
2	96	University of Washington	University of California at San Diego	55%

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Cardinal	Rainbows	Huskies	Tritons	Keelhaulers	Anteaters	Wildcats	Vikings	Trojans	Bruins
Stanford University Cardinal	8–1	✕	W	L	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
University of Hawaii Rainbows	8–1	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
University of Washington Huskies	6–3	W	L	✕	L	L	W	W	W	W	W
University of California at San Diego Tritons	7–2	L	L	W	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W
California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers	5–4	L	L	W	L	✕	W	L	W	W	W
University of California at Irvine Anteaters	4–5	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W
Northwestern University Wildcats	3–6	L	L	L	L	W	L	✕	W	L	W
Western Washington University Vikings	2–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W
University of Southern California Trojans	2–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	✕	W
University of California at Los Angeles Bruins	0–9	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 2

Team	Rec.	Cardinal	Rainbows	Huskies	Tritons	Keelhaulers	Anteaters	Wildcats	Vikings	Trojans	Bruins
Stanford University Cardinal	12–0	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
University of Hawaii Rainbows	7–5	L	✕	L	W	L	W	W	W	W	W
University of Washington Huskies	7–5	L	W	✕	W	W	L	L	L	W	W
University of California at San Diego Tritons	4–8	L	L	L	✕	W	L	W	W	W	L
California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers	4–5	L	W	L	L	✕	L	L	W	W	W
University of California at Irvine Anteaters	5–4	L	L	W	W	W	✕	W	L	L	W
Northwestern University Wildcats	4–5	L	L	W	L	W	L	✕	L	W	W
Western Washington University Vikings	4–5	L	L	W	L	L	W	W	✕	L	W
University of Southern California Trojans	3–6	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	W	✕	W
University of California at Los Angeles Bruins	1–8	L	L	L	W	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Anteaters	1-2-4	def.	Wildcats	3-5-6
2	Huskies	1-2-6	def.	Bruins	3-4-5
3	Tritons	1-2-5	def.	Keelhaulers	3-4-6
4	Rainbows	1-2-3	def.	Vikings	4-5-6
5	Cardinal	2-3-4	def.	Trojans	1-5-6
6	Wildcats	1-4-5	def.	Bruins	2-3-6
7	Tritons	1-2-3	def.	Huskies	4-5-6
8	Rainbows	1-2-5	def.	Keelhaulers	3-4-6
9	Vikings	2-3-4	def.	Trojans	1-5-6
10	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Anteaters	4-5-6
11	Tritons	1-2-6	def.	Wildcats	3-4-5
12	Rainbows	1-2-3	def.	Huskies	4-5-6
13	Keelhaulers	2-3-4	def.	Trojans	1-5-6
14	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Vikings	3-5-6
15	Anteaters	1-2-4	def.	Bruins	3-5-6
16	Huskies	2-3-4	def.	Wildcats	1-5-6
17	Rainbows	2-3-4	def.	Tritons	1-5-6
18	Keelhaulers	1-2-5	def.	Vikings	3-4-6
19	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Bruins	3-5-6
20	Anteaters	2-3-4	def.	Trojans	1-5-6
21	Rainbows	1-3-4	def.	Wildcats	2-5-6
22	Keelhaulers	1-2-6	def.	Huskies	3-4-5
23	Tritons	1-2-3	def.	Vikings	4-5-6
24	Trojans	1-2-4	def.	Bruins	3-5-6
25	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Rainbows	4-5-6
26	Huskies	1-2-6	def.	Anteaters	3-4-5
27	Wildcats	1-2-5	def.	Keelhaulers	3-4-6
28	Tritons	1-2-5	def.	Bruins	3-4-6
29	Rainbows	1-2-5	def.	Trojans	3-4-6
30	Huskies	1-2-3	def.	Vikings	4-5-6
31	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Keelhaulers	4-5-6
32	Tritons	1-2-6	def.	Anteaters	3-4-5
33	Trojans	1-2-6	def.	Wildcats	3-4-5
34	Rainbows	1-2-4	def.	Bruins	3-5-6
35	Huskies	1-2-6	def.	Cardinal	3-4-5
36	Keelhaulers	1-3-6	def.	Anteaters	2-4-5
37	Tritons	1-2-3	def.	Trojans	4-5-6
38	Vikings	1-2-4	def.	Bruins	3-5-6
39	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Wildcats	4-5-6
40	Rainbows	1-2-6	def.	Anteaters	3-4-5
41	Huskies	1-2-4	def.	Trojans	3-5-6
42	Wildcats	1-2-6	def.	Vikings	3-4-5
43	Keelhaulers	1-3-5	def.	Bruins	2-4-6
44	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Tritons	4-5-6
45	Anteaters	1-2-6	def.	Vikings	3-4-5
46	Anteaters	1-3-5	def.	Wildcats	2-4-6
47	Huskies	1-2-5	def.	Bruins	3-4-6
48	Tritons	1-4-5	def.	Keelhaulers	2-3-6 DNF
49	Rainbows	1-2-6	def.	Vikings	3-4-5
50	Cardinal	1-2-6	def.	Trojans	3-4-5
51	Wildcats	1-2-5	def.	Bruins	3-4-6
52	Huskies	2-3-4	def.	Tritons	1-5-6
53	Keelhaulers	1-2-5	def.	Rainbows	3-4-6
54	Trojans	1-2-6	def.	Vikings	3-4-5
55	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Anteaters	4-5-6
56	Tritons	2-3-4	def.	Wildcats	1-5-6
57	Huskies	1-3-5	def.	Rainbows	2-4-6
58	Keelhaulers	2-3-4	def.	Trojans	1-5-6
59	Cardinal	1-3-6	def.	Vikings	2-4-5
60	Anteaters	1-2-4	def.	Bruins	3-5-6
61	Wildcats	1-2-6	def.	Huskies	3-4-5
62	Rainbows	1-4-5	def.	Tritons	2-3-6
63	Keelhaulers	1-2-6	def.	Vikings	3-4-5
64	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Bruins	4-5-6
65	Trojans	1-2-6	def.	Anteaters	3-4-5
66	Rainbows	2-3-4	def.	Wildcats	1-5-6
67	Huskies	1-2-6	def.	Keelhaulers	3-4-5
68	Tritons	1-2-6	def.	Vikings	3-4-5
69	Trojans	1-2-5	def.	Bruins	3-4-6
70	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Rainbows	4-5-6
71	Anteaters	1-4-5	def.	Huskies	2-3-6
72	Wildcats	1-2-5	def.	Keelhaulers	3-4-6
73	Bruins	2-3-4	def.	Tritons	1-5-6
74	Rainbows	1-2-6	def.	Trojans	3-4-5
75	Vikings	1-2-5	def.	Huskies	3-4-6
76	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Keelhaulers	4-5-6
77	Anteaters	1-2-4	def.	Tritons	3-5-6
78	Wildcats	1-3-5	def.	Trojans	2-4-6
79	Rainbows	1-3-4	def.	Bruins	2-5-6
80	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Huskies	3-4-6
81	Anteaters	1-2-5	def.	Keelhaulers	3-4-6
82	Tritons	2-3-4	def.	Trojans	1-5-6
83	Vikings	1-2-4	def.	Bruins	3-5-6
84	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Wildcats	4-5-6
85	Rainbows	1-2-6	def.	Anteaters	3-4-5
86	Huskies	1-2-4	def.	Trojans	3-5-6
87	Vikings	1-4-5	def.	Wildcats	2-3-6
88	Keelhaulers	1-3-4	def.	Bruins	2-5-6
89	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Tritons	4-5-6
90	Vikings	1-3-4	def.	Anteaters	2-5-6
91	Huskies	1-2-4	def.	Rainbows	3-5-6
92	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Tritons	3-4-6
93	Rainbows	1-2-6	def.	Tritons	3-4-5
94	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Huskies	4-5-6
95	Cardinal	1-4-5	def.	Rainbows	2-3-6
96	Huskies	1-2-4	def.	Tritons	3-5-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Stanford University	Cardinal	Antoine Screve '16 Max Kohrman '15 Molly Mckinney '14 Sarah Mace '14 Yuki Yoshiyasu '16	Samantha Steele '16 Noelle Herring '16 Natalie Urban '15 Katie Riklin '13 Michelle Catania '16
University of Hawaii	Rainbows	Adam Pokras '14 Giacomo Paoletti '15 Madeline Kennedy '14 Mitchell Icard '13	Kellie Yamada '16 Lindsay Stewart '13 Ana-Melissa Kea '13
University of Washington	Huskies	Karl Haelsig '14 Kris Thompson '16 Zachary Forcade '13	Sarah Redmond '15 Molly Utter '14 Caylin Cordray '13
University of California at San Diego	Tritons	John Olson '14 Matthew Morris '16 Nicolas Delfino '16	Jonathan Schafgans '13 Caitlin Riley '15 Charlie Davidson '13
California Maritime Academy	Keelhaulers	Chris Vilicich '16 Matthew Van Rensselaer '13 Scott Doyle '14	Ryan Orphan '16 Emelia Sween '16 Stephen Katz '16
University of California at Irvine	Anteaters	Brian Hoover '12 Nicholas Weis '15 Samuel Heller '15	William Larsen '13 Finnian Sheehan '16 Kate Andersen '15
Northwestern University	Wildcats	Jacob Bruce '16 Michael Cornew '13 Ryan Anderson '15 Travis Cottle '15	Molly Conroy '13 Laura Rozier '15 Noah Aldonas '13
Western Washington University	Vikings	Alex Waldron '13 Alexander Halliday '16 Debbi Kenote '13	Rachael Mccrady '14 Emily Levalley '16 Gabe Hill '16
University of Southern California	Trojans	Cameron Hutcheson '14 John Coakley '16 Kendall Sanson '15	Hollis Barth '16 Nicole Bosetti '15 Olivia Gebelein '15
University of California at Los Angeles	Bruins	Emelia Pelliccio '13 Erica Parker '14 Gabriel Monti '15	Carly Olenick '13 Allison Skager '15 Justina Leo '15

Conditions — 03/02/2013 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 69% · Pressure 1021.1 hPa

Temperature

62°F

↑ 69°F ↓ 52°F

Feels like 62°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

1.8 kn

avg · max 3.6 kn

Gusts to 11.7 kn

From SW (235°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover98% Sunshine7.8 hrs Humidity69% Pressure1021.1 hPa

What this breeze does at Stanford — from fleet racing

Breeze: SW about 5 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Stanford in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.08)

Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.08 means a rating gap counts about 7% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Stanford by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (48 labelled fleet-race days at Stanford).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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