University of Hawaii '13
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.09 (fleet 1.51) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 24–17 (59%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2013 | 3 | 24–17 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (23 matches) the record is 9–14 against 7.9 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+1.1). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 1 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013-05-25 | APS Team Race Championship | skipper | 1.75 | 1.80 | 2–11 | 2.0 | +0.05 | 0.0 | 70% |
| 2013-04-05 | PCCSC/Patagonia Team Race Champs | skipper | 1.68 | 2.71 | 7–3 | 5.9 | +1.04 | 0.7 | 32% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| StFYC Interconference | Skipper | B | 9 | 15.3 | 0.79 |
| PJ Wenner Rainbow Invite | Skipper | B | 14 | 4.8 | 2.24 |
| PCCSC/Patagonia Team Race Champs | Skipper | TR | 10 | 70% | — |
| Jeremy McIntyre Team Race | Skipper | TR | 21 | 71% | — |
| APS Team Race Championship | Skipper | TR | 13 | 15% | — |
| Fall 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| Stoney Burke Regatta | Skipper | B | 2 | 14.0 | — |
| Spring 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| Truxtun Umsted | Skipper | C | 1 | 19.0 | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
