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PCCSC/Patagonia Team Race Champs

# SchoolTeam Rec.
1 Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal 10–0
2 University of Hawaii University of Hawaii Rainbows 7–3
3 University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Tritons 5–5
4 University of California at Irvine University of California at Irvine Anteaters 5–5
5 University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 6–4
6 California Maritime Academy California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 4–6
7 California State University Long Beach California State University Long Beach 49ers 3–7
8 University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans 0–10

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 1,271 team race matches sailed before 2013-04-05, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 29 of 40 matches (72%) with a log-loss of 0.546 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.75 ± 0.32: an upset-heavy event, more orderly than 5% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

PlaceSchool Pred. Strength Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) Pred. win % Recordvs forecast
1Stanford University
Cardinal		112.46
school +0.30		Kevin Laube / Carolyn Ortel 4.14
Mateo Vargas / Tally Buckstaff 3.89
Oliver Toole / Haley Kirk 4.11		100%10–0 (100%)+0.0
2University of Hawaii
Rainbows		47.19
school +0.18		Adam Pokras / Kellie Yamada 2.78
Mitchell Icard / Ana-Melissa Kea 1.68
Madeline Kennedy / Lindsay Stewart 2.51		59%7–3 (70%)+1.1
3University of California at San Diego
Tritons		56.02
school −0.21		John Olson / Danielle Sams 1.60
Nicolas Delfino / Jonathan Schafgans 1.67
Matthew Morris / Charlie Davidson 2.83		38%5–5 (50%)+1.2
4University of California at Irvine
Anteaters		75.28
school +0.39		Brian Hoover / Kate Andersen 2.06
Samuel Heller / Ashley Hobson 1.34
Nicholas Weis / William Larsen 1.36		24%5–5 (50%)+2.6
5University of California at Santa Barbara
Gauchos		37.21Ian Stokes / Natalie Davidson
Ginger Luckey / Grant Rickon
Cobi Allen / Preston Beye		65%6–4 (60%)−0.5
6California Maritime Academy
Keelhaulers		65.11
school −0.57		Matthew Van Rensselaer / Eileen Welch 1.91
Chris Vilicich / Stephen Katz 2.66
Seamus Dougherty / Ryan Orphan		24%4–6 (40%)+1.6
7California State University Long Beach
49ers		27.79Shane Young / Foya Lazare
John Hill / Anna Rubino
Mark Ryan / Nicholas Santos		75%3–7 (30%)−4.5
8University of Southern California
Trojans		84.57
school −0.22		Cameron Hutcheson / Hollis Barth 2.88
Kendall Sanson / Olivia Gebelein 0.83
John Coakley / Sanket Chauhan 0.96 0–8
John Coakley / Nicole Bosetti 1.13 0–2		16%0–10 (0%)−1.6

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

PlaceSchoolStrength Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
1Stanford University12.4615.4610–010.0≥+3.000.097%
4University of California at Irvine5.287.005–52.4+1.723.43%
6California Maritime Academy5.116.174–62.4+1.051.217%
2University of Hawaii7.198.237–35.9+1.040.732%
3University of California at San Diego6.026.855–53.8+0.820.727%
5University of California at Santa Barbara7.216.876–46.5−0.350.181%
7California State University Long Beach7.794.923–77.5−2.879.8>99%
8University of Southern California4.571.570–101.6≤−3.002.5>99%

By skipper

SkipperSchoolValue Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
Kevin LaubeStanford University4.147.1410–010.0≥+3.000.097%
Mateo VargasStanford University3.896.8910–010.0≥+3.000.097%
Oliver TooleStanford University4.117.1110–010.0≥+3.000.097%
Brian HooverUniversity of California at Irvine2.063.785–52.4+1.723.43%
Samuel HellerUniversity of California at Irvine1.343.075–52.4+1.723.43%
Nicholas WeisUniversity of California at Irvine1.363.085–52.4+1.723.43%
Matthew Van RensselaerCalifornia Maritime Academy1.912.964–62.4+1.051.217%
Chris VilicichCalifornia Maritime Academy2.663.724–62.4+1.051.217%
Seamus DoughertyCalifornia Maritime Academy0.972.024–62.4+1.051.217%
Adam PokrasUniversity of Hawaii2.783.817–35.9+1.040.732%
Mitchell IcardUniversity of Hawaii1.682.717–35.9+1.040.732%
Madeline KennedyUniversity of Hawaii2.513.557–35.9+1.040.732%
John OlsonUniversity of California at San Diego1.602.425–53.8+0.820.727%
Nicolas DelfinoUniversity of California at San Diego1.672.505–53.8+0.820.727%
Ian StokesUniversity of California at Santa Barbara3.122.776–46.5−0.350.181%
Ginger LuckeyUniversity of California at Santa Barbara2.021.676–46.5−0.350.181%
Cobi AllenUniversity of California at Santa Barbara1.751.406–46.5−0.350.181%
Shane YoungCalifornia State University Long Beach2.77-0.103–77.5−2.879.8>99%
Mark RyanCalifornia State University Long Beach2.57-0.293–77.5−2.879.8>99%
Cameron HutchesonUniversity of Southern California2.88-0.120–101.6≤−3.002.5>99%
Kendall SansonUniversity of Southern California0.83-2.170–101.6≤−3.002.5>99%
John CoakleyUniversity of Southern California0.96-2.040–101.6≤−3.002.5>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd#WinnerLoser P(winner)
11California Maritime AcademyUniversity of Southern California59%
12Stanford UniversityUniversity of Hawaii100%
13University of California at IrvineUniversity of California at Santa Barbara15%upset
14University of California at San DiegoCalifornia State University Long Beach17%upset
15University of HawaiiUniversity of Southern California94%
16California Maritime AcademyUniversity of California at Santa Barbara12%upset
17Stanford UniversityUniversity of California at San Diego100%
18University of California at IrvineCalifornia State University Long Beach8%upset
19University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of Hawaii49%upset
110University of California at San DiegoUniversity of Southern California81%
111University of California at IrvineCalifornia Maritime Academy54%
112Stanford UniversityCalifornia State University Long Beach99%
113University of California at San DiegoUniversity of California at Santa Barbara24%upset
114University of HawaiiUniversity of California at Irvine87%
115Stanford UniversityUniversity of Southern California100%
116California State University Long BeachCalifornia Maritime Academy93%
117University of California at IrvineUniversity of California at San Diego32%upset
118Stanford UniversityUniversity of California at Santa Barbara99%
119University of HawaiiCalifornia Maritime Academy89%
120California State University Long BeachUniversity of Southern California96%
121Stanford UniversityUniversity of California at Irvine100%
122University of California at San DiegoCalifornia Maritime Academy71%
123University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of Southern California94%
124University of HawaiiCalifornia State University Long Beach34%upset
125Stanford UniversityCalifornia Maritime Academy100%
126University of California at IrvineUniversity of Southern California67%
127University of HawaiiUniversity of California at San Diego76%
128University of California at Santa BarbaraCalifornia State University Long Beach36%upset
129California Maritime AcademyUniversity of Southern California63%
130California Maritime AcademyCalifornia State University Long Beach6%upset
131California State University Long BeachUniversity of Southern California96%
132University of California at Santa BarbaraCalifornia Maritime Academy89%
133University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of Southern California94%
134University of California at Santa BarbaraCalifornia State University Long Beach36%upset
135Stanford UniversityUniversity of Hawaii99%
136University of California at San DiegoUniversity of California at Irvine68%
137University of HawaiiUniversity of California at Irvine87%
138Stanford UniversityUniversity of California at San Diego100%
139Stanford UniversityUniversity of California at Irvine100%
140University of HawaiiUniversity of California at San Diego76%

Round 1

TeamRec.CardinalRainbowsTritonsAnteatersGauchosKeelhaulers49ersTrojans
Stanford University Cardinal10–0✕WWWWWWW
University of Hawaii Rainbows7–3L✕WWLWWW
University of California at San Diego Tritons5–5LL✕WWWWW
University of California at Irvine Anteaters5–5LLL✕WWWW
University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos6–4LWLL✕WWW
California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers4–6LLLLL✕WW
California State University Long Beach 49ers3–7LLLLLL✕W
University of Southern California Trojans0–10LLLLLLL✕
# Winner Loser Pos.
1 California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 1-2-5 def. University of Southern California Trojans 3-4-6
2 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-5 def. University of Hawaii Rainbows 3-4-6
3 University of California at Irvine Anteaters 1-2-5 def. University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 3-4-6
4 University of California at San Diego Tritons 1-2-5 def. California State University Long Beach 49ers 3-4-6
5 University of Hawaii Rainbows 1-2-5 def. University of Southern California Trojans 3-4-6
6 California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 1-3-5 def. University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2-4-6
7 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-3 def. University of California at San Diego Tritons 4-5-6
8 University of California at Irvine Anteaters 2-3-4 def. California State University Long Beach 49ers 1-5-6
9 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1-3-4 def. University of Hawaii Rainbows 2-5-6
10 University of California at San Diego Tritons 1-2-3 def. University of Southern California Trojans 4-5-6
11 University of California at Irvine Anteaters 1-3-4 def. California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 2-5-6
12 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-4 def. California State University Long Beach 49ers 3-5-6
13 University of California at San Diego Tritons 1-3-5 def. University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 2-4-6
14 University of Hawaii Rainbows 1-2-4 def. University of California at Irvine Anteaters 3-5-6
15 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-4 def. University of Southern California Trojans 3-5-6
16 California State University Long Beach 49ers 1-2-6 def. California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 3-4-5
17 University of California at Irvine Anteaters 1-4-5 def. University of California at San Diego Tritons 2-3-6
18 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-3 def. University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 4-5-6
19 University of Hawaii Rainbows 1-2-4 def. California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 3-5-6
20 California State University Long Beach 49ers 1-2-4 def. University of Southern California Trojans 3-5-6
21 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-3 def. University of California at Irvine Anteaters 4-5-6
22 University of California at San Diego Tritons 1-2-5 def. California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 3-4-6
23 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1-3-4 def. University of Southern California Trojans 2-5-6
24 University of Hawaii Rainbows 1-2-5 def. California State University Long Beach 49ers 3-4-6
25 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-3 def. California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 4-5-6
26 University of California at Irvine Anteaters 2-3-5 def. University of Southern California Trojans 1-4-6
27 University of Hawaii Rainbows 1-3-4 def. University of California at San Diego Tritons 2-5-6
28 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1-3-6 def. California State University Long Beach 49ers 2-4-5
29 California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 1-2-5 def. University of Southern California Trojans 3-4-6
30 California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 1-3-6 def. California State University Long Beach 49ers 2-4-5
31 California State University Long Beach 49ers 1-2-6 def. University of Southern California Trojans 3-4-5
32 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1-2-6 def. California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 3-4-5
33 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1-2-3 def. University of Southern California Trojans 4-5-6
34 University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1-2-5 DNF,DNF,DNF def. California State University Long Beach 49ers 3-4-6 DNF,DNF,DNF
35 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-4 def. University of Hawaii Rainbows 3-5-6
36 University of California at San Diego Tritons 1-3-5 def. University of California at Irvine Anteaters 2-4-6
37 University of Hawaii Rainbows 2-3-4 def. University of California at Irvine Anteaters 1-5-6
38 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-3 def. University of California at San Diego Tritons 4-5-6
39 Stanford University Cardinal 1-2-3 def. University of California at Irvine Anteaters 4-5-6
40 University of Hawaii Rainbows 1-2-5 def. University of California at San Diego Tritons 3-4-6

Conditions — 04/05/2013 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Partly cloudy
Humidity 70%  ·  Pressure 1017.9 hPa

Temperature

63°F
↑ 65°F   ↓ 57°F
Feels like 62°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.2 kn
avg  ·  max 7.6 kn
Gusts to 17.9 kn
From W (262°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover69% Sunshine10.5 hrs Humidity70% Pressure1017.9 hPa

What this breeze does at San Diego State — from fleet racing

Breeze: W about 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at San Diego State in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.02)
Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at San Diego State by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 8 labelled days at San Diego State, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →