Stanford University '14
Each discipline has its own scale, built from the sailor's main rating and their results in that discipline. The numbers are not comparable with the main rating or with each other.
How these ratings work →| Discipline | Rating | Rank | Races | Last raced |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Singlehanded | 3.05 | unranked (fewer than 10 races or not active) | 80 | Fall 2013 |
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.78 (fleet 3.83) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 125–36 (78%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2014 | 6 | 62–13 | — |
| Spring 2013 | 6 | 63–23 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 8 graded regattas (105 matches) the record is 84–21 against 84.1 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−0.1). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 3 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 8 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014-05-31 | APS Team Race National Championship | skipper | 3.90 | 3.60 | 5–5 | 5.7 | −0.30 | 0.1 | 79% |
| 2014-05-03 | 2014 Carter Ford Team Race | skipper | 3.82 | 6.82 | 9–0 | 8.8 | ≥+3.00 | 0.3 | 82% |
| 2014-03-29 | 33rd Lynne Marchiando Regatta | skipper | 3.77 | 3.75 | 18–4 | 18.1 | −0.02 | 0.0 | 65% |
| 2014-03-22 | 2014 Aaron Szambecki Team Race | skipper | 3.87 | 3.75 | 8–4 | 8.3 | −0.12 | 0.0 | 70% |
| 2014-03-08 | St. Mary's Team Race | skipper | 3.79 | 6.79 | 14–0 | 10.6 | ≥+3.00 | 5.6 | 2% |
| 2014-03-01 | McIntyre Team Race | skipper | 3.90 | 6.89 | 8–0 | 7.7 | ≥+3.00 | 0.5 | 70% |
| 2013-05-25 | APS Team Race Championship | skipper | 3.94 | 3.11 | 12–8 | 15.0 | −0.83 | 1.9 | 97% |
| 2013-04-05 | PCCSC/Patagonia Team Race Champs | skipper | 4.11 | 7.11 | 10–0 | 10.0 | ≥+3.00 | 0.0 | 97% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Mary's Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 100% | — |
| North 2 | Skipper | A | 4 | 5.0 | 3.49 |
| North 1 | Skipper | A | 5 | 2.2 | 5.21 |
| McIntyre Team Race | Skipper | TR | 18 | 100% | — |
| 33rd Lynne Marchiando Regatta | Skipper | TR | 22 | 82% | — |
| Gill National Champs 1st round-East | Skipper | A | 4 | 9.2 | 3.24 |
| 79th Boston Dinghy Cup | Skipper | B | 10 | 6.3 | 3.82 |
| APS Team Race National Championship | Skipper | TR | 25 | 68% | — |
| 2014 Carter Ford Team Race | Skipper | TR | 9 | 100% | — |
| 2014 Aaron Szambecki Team Race | Skipper | TR | 21 | 71% | — |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| PCCSC Men's Singlehanded Champs Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 12 | 2.6 | 4.55 |
| 64th Nevins Trophy | Skipper | A | 10 | 4.4 | 4.76 |
| Navy Fall | Skipper | C | 20 | 7.5 | 3.49 |
| ICSA/LP Men's Singlehanded Champs Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 18 | 7.8 | 3.67 |
| Pacific Coast Championship | Skipper | C | 12 | 3.7 | 3.24 |
| Spring 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Mary's Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 86% | — |
| Southern New England Team Race | Skipper | TR | 16 | 69% | — |
| College Sailing Eastern Semifinals | Skipper | B | 12 | 4.2 | 4.43 |
| PCCSC/Patagonia Team Race Champs | Skipper | TR | 10 | 100% | — |
| PCCSC/Patagonia Coed Championship | Skipper | A | 8 | 1.9 | 5.00 |
| Gill Coed Championships | Skipper | B | 17 | 5.4 | 4.35 |
| Bob Bavier Team Race | Skipper | TR | 12 | 58% | — |
| APS Team Race Championship | Skipper | TR | 20 | 60% | — |
| Admiral's Cup | Skipper | A | 11 | 6.7 | 3.59 |
| Aaron Szambecki Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 79% | — |
| Fall 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Mary's Fall Interconference | Skipper | A | 18 | 6.3 | 4.16 |
| Moody Trophy | Skipper | A | 8 | 3.9 | 4.81 |
| LP / ICSA Men's Singlehanded Nationals Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 18 | 6.9 | 3.94 |
| Fall Dinghy PCC's 3 Div | Skipper | A | 14 | 3.5 | 4.00 |
| Fall Pacific Coast Championship | Skipper | A | 14 | 3.5 | 4.00 |
| Spring 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| PCCSC Dinghy Championship | Skipper | B | 6 | 1.2 | 6.24 |
| North #2 | Skipper | A | 5 | 2.2 | 4.68 |
| North 1 | Skipper | A | 6 | 2.5 | 4.40 |
| Gill Dinghy National Championship | Skipper | B | 13 | 8.2 | 3.77 |
| 83rd Boston Dinghy Challenge Cup | Skipper | C | 18 | 4.4 | 4.11 |
| Admiral's Cup | Skipper | B | 19 | 4.7 | 4.26 |
| Fall 2011 Team page Season | |||||
| Sherman Hoyt Trophy | Skipper | B | 6 | 8.5 | 2.98 |
| Captain Hurst Bowl | Skipper | A | 14 | 9.8 | 3.37 |
| Spring 2011 Team page Season | |||||
| Truxtun Umsted | Skipper | C | 17 | 7.8 | 3.30 |
| Thompson Trophy | Skipper | A | 13 | 9.8 | 2.82 |
| PCCSC Coed Dinghy Championship | Skipper | B | 4 | 3.2 | 3.48 |
| ICSA/Gill Co-ed National Championship | Skipper | A | 8 | 10.1 | 3.52 |
| Fall 2010 Team page Season | |||||
| Sherman Hoyt Trophy | Skipper | B | 6 | 10.3 | 2.67 |
| PCCSC Men's Single-handeds Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 14 | 2.6 | 4.47 |
| The Moody Trophy | Skipper | A | 13 | 9.3 | 2.99 |
| ICSA Men's Singlehanded's Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 18 | 10.9 | 2.68 |
| Fall Dinghy PCC | Skipper | C | 13 | 2.5 | 3.70 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
