ICSA Men's Singlehanded's

HostSouth Florida
Date11/05/2010
TypeNational Championship Finals
BoatLaser
ScoringSinglehanded

#	School	Sailor	TOT
1	Georgetown University	Charlie Buckingham '11	69
2	Roger Williams University	Cy Thompson '11	73
3	Yale University	Cam Cullman '13	84
4	University of South Florida	Zachary Marks '11	86
5	Brown University	Fred Strammer '11	98
6	College of Charleston	Erik Bowers '12	143
7	Brown University	Colin Smith '13	146
8	California Maritime Academy	Sean Kelly '12	157
9	University of Wisconsin	Andrew Fox '13	176
10	Georgetown University	Chris Barnard '13	181
11	Cornell University	Philip Alley '12	191
12	University of Oregon	Elliot Drake '12	191
13	Stanford University	Oliver Toole '14	196
14	University of Miami	David Hernandez '12	219
15	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Samuel Blouin '12	227
16	University of Minnesota	Matthew Thompson '11	232
17	University of Wisconsin	Joseph Kutschenreuter '12	289
18	Tulane University	Shawn Ryan '11	308

School	Sailor	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	R12	R13	R14	R15	R16	R17	R18	TOT
Georgetown University	Charlie Buckingham '11	3	6	2	5	1	2	4	2	1	4	3	1	3	12	1	1	3	15	69
Roger Williams University	Cy Thompson '11	1	1	1	1	8	1	1	3	5	1	7	3	1	3	8	6	11	11	73
Yale University	Cam Cullman '13	12	2	4	2	2	4	3	6	BKD	2	2	5	4	14	2	4	10	1	84
University of South Florida	Zachary Marks '11	10	4	10	3	6	3	5	4	2	10	1	6	BKD	1	4	2	8	3	86
Brown University	Fred Strammer '11	4	3	5	4	5	OCS	7	1	3	3	4	2	2	2	10	12	6	6	98
College of Charleston	Erik Bowers '12	BKD	7	6	6	9	11	10	10	4	7	18	10	9	8	14	3	1	2	143
Brown University	Colin Smith '13	8	11	3	10	4	12	2	5	14	11	5	7	8	13	9	5	7	12	146
California Maritime Academy	Sean Kelly '12	14	5	12	BKD	10	14	9	14	9	5	11	4	11	4	5	7	2	10	157
University of Wisconsin	Andrew Fox '13	2	10	16	13	15	8	6	9	8	16	8	8	7	10	12	11	9	8	176
Georgetown University	Chris Barnard '13	5	14	18	11	17	6	14	11	6	6	6	13	10	7	11	8	5	13	181
Cornell University	Philip Alley '12	6	15	14	16	3	17	8	7	13	12	14	9	15	5	6	15	12	4	191
University of Oregon	Elliot Drake '12	15	9	11	7	12	9	12	12	18	9	10	11	16	11	3	13	4	9	191
Stanford University	Oliver Toole '14	7	12	9	12	13	5	13	15	10	8	15	12	6	9	13	16	14	7	196
University of Miami	David Hernandez '12	9	13	7	8	11	13	17	8	15	13	12	14	14	16	15	14	15	5	219
Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Samuel Blouin '12	18	17	8	9	7	7	11	13	11	15	9	17	12	15	18	10	16	14	227
University of Minnesota	Matthew Thompson '11	13	8	13	15	16	10	15	17	16	14	13	16	13	6	7	9	13	18	232
University of Wisconsin	Joseph Kutschenreuter '12	17	18	15	17	14	15	16	16	12	17	16	15	17	17	16	17	18	16	289
Tulane University	Shawn Ryan '11	16	16	17	14	18	16	18	18	17	18	17	18	18	18	17	18	17	17	308

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 309 ICSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

Division A 18 boats · 18 races

Fin	Skipper	School	Races	Rating before	Perf. rating	Δ	Percentile before → perf.	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)	Avg finish actual / exp.
1	Charlie Buckingham '11	Georgetown University Hoyas 2	18/18	3.46	4.27	+0.81	90th → 98th	3.5	8%	3.8 / 6.9
2	Cy Thompson '11	Roger Williams University	18/18	3.30	4.27	+0.97	87th → 98th	5.1	8%	4.1 / 7.3
3	Cam Cullman '13	Yale University	18/18	2.59	4.03	+1.45	68th → 95th	10.0	3%	5.4 / 9.1
3	Fred Strammer '11	Brown University Bears 2	18/18	2.98	4.10	+1.12	81st → 96th	6.3	14%	5.4 / 8.1
5	Zachary Marks '11	University of South Florida	18/18	2.69	3.99	+1.31	71st → 95th	8.5	10%	5.6 / 8.9
6	Colin Smith '13	Brown University Bears 1	18/18	2.83	2.99	+0.16	77th → 81st	0.2	45%	8.1 / 8.4
7	Erik Bowers '12	College of Charleston	18/18	2.51	2.83	+0.32	64th → 77th	0.6	40%	8.6 / 9.3
8	Sean Kelly '12	California Maritime Academy	18/18	2.22	2.85	+0.63	58th → 78th	2.4	38%	9.2 / 10.0
9	Andrew Fox '13	University of Wisconsin Badgers 1	18/18	1.92	2.59	+0.67	48th → 68th	2.8	34%	9.8 / 10.9
10	Chris Barnard '13	Georgetown University Hoyas 1	18/18	2.97	2.21	−0.76	81st → 58th	4.2	85%	10.1 / 8.0
11	Elliot Drake '12	University of Oregon	18/18	1.80	2.29	+0.49	44th → 59th	1.4	41%	10.6 / 11.1
11	Philip Alley '12	Cornell University	18/18	1.94	2.14	+0.19	50th → 56th	0.2	43%	10.6 / 10.9
13	Oliver Toole '14	Stanford University	18/18	2.48	2.33	−0.15	62nd → 60th	0.2	79%	10.9 / 9.3
14	David Hernandez '12	University of Miami	18/18	2.50	1.99	−0.51	64th → 51st	2.1	92%	12.2 / 9.4
15	Samuel Blouin '12	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	18/18	2.72	1.62	−1.09	72nd → 40th	9.3	98%	12.6 / 8.7
16	Matthew Thompson '11	University of Minnesota	18/18	1.19	1.77	+0.58	28th → 43rd	2.0	52%	12.9 / 12.6
17	Joseph Kutschenreuter '12	University of Wisconsin Badgers 2	18/18	2.51	0.75	−1.76	64th → 18th	26.6	>99%	16.1 / 9.3
18	Shawn Ryan '11	Tulane University	18/18	1.10	0.25	−0.85	25th → 10th	3.7	99%	17.1 / 12.9

Conditions — 11/05/2010 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 50% · Pressure 1013.0 hPa

Temperature

63°F

↑ 64°F ↓ 61°F

Feels like 55°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

13.2 kn

avg · max 14.3 kn

Gusts to 27.0 kn

From NNW (333°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover80% Sunshine9.0 hrs Humidity50% Pressure1013.0 hPa

What this breeze does at South Florida — from fleet racing

Breeze: NW about 14 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at South Florida in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.07)

Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.07 means a rating gap counts about 6% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at South Florida by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (75 labelled fleet-race days at South Florida).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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