ICSA/LP Men's Singlehanded Champs

HostBrown
Date11/08/2013
TypeNational Championship Finals
BoatLaser
ScoringSinglehanded

#	School	Sailor	TOT
1	Georgetown University	Greg Martinez '18	64
2	Harvard University	Juan Perdomo '17	74
3	College of Charleston	Enrique Arathoon '16	77
4	Yale University	Joseph Kiss '17	114
5	SUNY Maritime College	Nick Valente '16	122
6	St. Mary's College of Maryland	John Wallace '14	122
7	Stanford University	Oliver Toole '14	140
8	Fordham University	Olin Paine '16	143
9	College of Charleston	Charles Rees '16	155
10	University of South Florida	Christopher Stocke '15	160
11	Yale University	Ian Barrows '17	164
12	University of Vermont	Michael Zonnenberg '15	179
13	Texas A&M University at Galveston	Trey Hartman '15	207
14	University of California at Santa Barbara	Stephen Long '17	210
15	University of Wisconsin	Matthew Ripkey '17	261
16	Western Washington University	Paul Foley '15	271
17	University of Minnesota	Ryan Grosch '14	293
18	Oklahoma State University	Ian Jones '15	320

School	Sailor	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	R12	R13	R14	R15	R16	R17	R18	TOT
Georgetown University	Greg Martinez '18	3	2	2	2	2	2	3	2	2	1	7	9	4	5	4	5	3	6	64
Harvard University	Juan Perdomo '17	4	1	1	5	3	5	1	6	6	6	10	1	8	4	1	1	2	9	74
College of Charleston	Enrique Arathoon '16	1	4	DSQ	1	1	1	2	DSQ	9	5	4	2	1	1	3	2	1	1	77
Yale University	Joseph Kiss '17	10	3	6	11	14	13	4	1	7	8	3	4	7	3	2	6	8	4	114
SUNY Maritime College	Nick Valente '16	7	8	5	4	5	3	8	3	1	9	11	10	2	2	10	8	14	12	122
St. Mary's College of Maryland	John Wallace '14	13	5	3	9	12	4	6	7	4	12	1	12	6	6	6	7	7	2	122
Stanford University	Oliver Toole '14	2	10	8	7	6	9	12	11	12	2	2	8	11	11	16	3	5	5	140
Fordham University	Olin Paine '16	5	17	9	3	4	10	5	5	3	10	9	5	3	12	11	11	11	10	143
College of Charleston	Charles Rees '16	6	13	4	12	9	7	11	9	13	3	8	7	9	7	5	10	6	16	155
University of South Florida	Christopher Stocke '15	11	12	7	10	7	6	7	12	5	7	12	6	5	10	7	13	12	11	160
Yale University	Ian Barrows '17	8	6	12	14	13	15	10	4	8	4	5	3	10	13	12	9	4	14	164
University of Vermont	Michael Zonnenberg '15	BKD	7	11	6	8	14	9	8	11	11	18	17	12	9	9	4	9	7	179
Texas A&M University at Galveston	Trey Hartman '15	15	9	10	8	10	8	15	13	10	14	13	16	16	8	8	15	16	3	207
University of California at Santa Barbara	Stephen Long '17	9	11	14	13	11	12	13	10	16	13	6	11	13	15	13	12	10	8	210
University of Wisconsin	Matthew Ripkey '17	14	15	13	15	17	11	14	14	14	17	14	13	15	14	15	16	15	15	261
Western Washington University	Paul Foley '15	12	14	15	16	15	16	18	15	17	15	15	18	14	17	14	14	13	13	271
University of Minnesota	Ryan Grosch '14	16	16	16	17	16	17	16	17	15	16	16	14	17	16	17	17	17	17	293
Oklahoma State University	Ian Jones '15	DNF	18	17	18	18	18	17	16	18	18	17	15	18	18	18	DNS	DNS	DNS	320

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 309 ICSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

Division A 18 boats · 18 races

Fin	Skipper	School	Races	Rating before	Perf. rating	Δ	Percentile before → perf.	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)	Avg finish actual / exp.
1	Greg Martinez '18	Georgetown University	18/18	3.07	4.84	+1.77	83rd → 99th	14.6	<1%	3.6 / 8.1
2	Juan Perdomo '17	Harvard University	18/18	3.15	4.50	+1.35	84th → 99th	9.3	4%	4.1 / 8.0
3	Enrique Arathoon '16	College of Charleston Cougars 1	18/18	3.18	5.59	+2.42	85th → 99th	20.2	5%	4.3 / 7.9
4	Joseph Kiss '17	Yale University Elis	18/18	2.48	3.59	+1.11	62nd → 92nd	6.9	9%	6.3 / 9.7
5	John Wallace '14	St. Mary's College of Maryland	18/18	2.57	3.42	+0.85	67th → 89th	4.2	9%	6.8 / 9.5
5	Nick Valente '16	SUNY Maritime College	18/18	2.79	3.46	+0.66	76th → 89th	2.7	14%	6.8 / 8.9
7	Oliver Toole '14	Stanford University	18/18	3.11	3.09	−0.02	84th → 83rd	0.0	47%	7.8 / 8.0
8	Olin Paine '16	Fordham University	18/18	3.30	3.01	−0.29	87th → 83rd	0.6	62%	7.9 / 7.5
9	Charles Rees '16	College of Charleston Cougars 2	18/18	2.93	2.97	+0.03	79th → 81st	0.0	52%	8.6 / 8.5
10	Christopher Stocke '15	University of South Florida	18/18	3.08	2.93	−0.16	83rd → 79th	0.2	68%	8.9 / 8.1
11	Ian Barrows '17	Yale University Bulldogs	18/18	3.29	2.73	−0.56	86th → 73rd	2.4	73%	9.1 / 7.7
12	Michael Zonnenberg '15	University of Vermont	18/18	2.89	2.32	−0.57	78th → 60th	2.1	85%	10.5 / 8.6
13	Trey Hartman '15	Texas A&M University at Galveston	18/18	1.51	2.05	+0.54	38th → 53rd	1.8	39%	11.5 / 12.0
14	Stephen Long '17	University of California at Santa Barbara	18/18	2.90	2.21	−0.69	78th → 58th	3.9	89%	11.7 / 8.7
15	Matthew Ripkey '17	University of Wisconsin	18/18	1.95	1.43	−0.52	50th → 34th	2.0	93%	14.5 / 11.1
16	Paul Foley '15	Western Washington University	18/18	1.39	1.14	−0.25	34th → 25th	0.4	89%	15.1 / 12.4
17	Ryan Grosch '14	University of Minnesota	18/18	1.74	0.28	−1.47	43rd → 10th	13.9	99%	16.3 / 11.6
18	Ian Jones '15	Oklahoma State University	18/18	0.34	-0.89	−1.22	11th → 1st	3.5	>99%	17.8 / 14.7

Conditions — 11/08/2013 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 51% · Pressure 1013.9 hPa

Temperature

45°F

↑ 48°F ↓ 37°F

Feels like 35°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

9.8 kn

avg · max 11.9 kn

Gusts to 27.8 kn

From WNW (283°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover27% Sunshine9.5 hrs Humidity51% Pressure1013.9 hPa

What this breeze does at Brown — from fleet racing

Breeze: W about 12 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Brown in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.09)

Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.09 means a rating gap counts about 8% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Brown by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (78 labelled fleet-race days at Brown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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