University of Vermont '15
Each discipline has its own scale, built from the sailor's main rating and their results in that discipline. The numbers are not comparable with the main rating or with each other.
How these ratings work →| Discipline | Rating | Rank | Races | Last raced |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Singlehanded | 2.99 | unranked (fewer than 10 races or not active) | 78 | Fall 2013 |
| Keelboat | 1.57 | unranked (fewer than 10 races or not active) | 9 | Fall 2014 |
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.76 (fleet 3.81) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 73–88 (45%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2015 | 3 | 28–28 | — |
| Fall 2014 | 1 | 7–4 | — |
| Spring 2014 | 5 | 20–37 | — |
| Spring 2013 | 2 | 18–19 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 9 graded regattas (124 matches) the record is 55–69 against 52.1 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+2.9). 2 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 3 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 13 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-04-11 | Fowle Trophy | skipper | 3.62 | 3.61 | 7–10 | 7.0 | −0.01 | 0.0 | 61% |
| 2015-04-04 | 34th Lynne Marchiando Regatta | skipper | 3.92 | 3.72 | 8–7 | 8.6 | −0.20 | 0.1 | 74% |
| 2015-03-28 | 2015 Aaron Szambecki Team Race | skipper | 3.88 | 5.25 | 13–11 | 6.4 | +1.37 | 6.8 | <1% |
| 2014-11-08 | Hap Moore Team Race | skipper | 3.44 | 3.56 | 7–4 | 6.7 | +0.13 | 0.0 | 57% |
| 2014-04-05 | Fowle New England Team Race Champs | skipper | 3.61 | 1.53 | 1–8 | 3.8 | −2.08 | 3.7 | >99% |
| 2014-03-29 | 33rd Lynne Marchiando Regatta | skipper | 3.58 | 3.66 | 6–12 | 5.7 | +0.08 | 0.0 | 54% |
| 2014-03-22 | Jan T. Friis Trophy | skipper | 3.64 | 2.98 | 5–11 | 7.2 | −0.66 | 1.0 | 93% |
| 2014-03-15 | Southern New-England Team Race | skipper | 3.69 | 4.64 | 6–4 | 3.9 | +0.95 | 1.5 | 13% |
| 2014-03-01 | Thames River Team Race | skipper | 3.83 | 3.10 | 2–2 | 2.7 | −0.74 | 0.4 | 90% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Fowle Trophy | Skipper | TR | 18 | 44% | — |
| Coast Guard Alumni Bowl/NE Champs | Skipper | A | 15 | 8.9 | 3.75 |
| 80th Boston Dinghy Cup | Skipper | A | 9 | 9.3 | 3.54 |
| 34th Lynne Marchiando Regatta | Skipper | TR | 15 | 53% | — |
| 2015 Aaron Szambecki Team Race | Skipper | TR | 24 | 54% | — |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Phil Harman Cup Keelboat | Skipper | A | 9 | 5.2 | 0.88 |
| Hoyt Trophy | Skipper | A | 9 | 10.1 | 3.47 |
| 32nd Professor Stedman Hood Trophy | Skipper | A | 4 | 8.0 | 3.54 |
| Hatch Brown Trophy | Skipper | A | 17 | 8.8 | 3.82 |
| Hap Moore Team Race | Skipper | TR | 11 | 64% | — |
| Danmark Trophy | Skipper | A | 13 | 7.6 | 4.48 |
| Atlantic Coast Championship | Skipper | A | 13 | 7.6 | 4.20 |
| 74th Professor Erwin Schell Trophy | Skipper | A | 10 | 4.5 | 5.01 |
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Thompson Trophy | Skipper | A | 11 | 6.4 | 4.00 |
| Thames River Team Race | Skipper | TR | 7 | 71% | — |
| Southern New-England Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 64% | — |
| 33rd Lynne Marchiando Regatta | Skipper | TR | 22 | 46% | — |
| Jan T. Friis Trophy | Skipper | TR | 16 | 31% | — |
| Fowle New England Team Race Champs | Skipper | TR | 11 | 18% | — |
| Coast Guard Bowl/N.E. Dinghy Champs | Skipper | A | 14 | 8.8 | 3.67 |
| Admiral's Cup | Skipper | A | 13 | 7.5 | 3.79 |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| 75th Annual Oberg Trophy | Skipper | A | 18 | 6.6 | 3.66 |
| 64th Nevins Trophy | Skipper | C | 10 | 9.0 | 3.03 |
| Navy Fall | Skipper | C | 20 | 6.7 | 3.74 |
| ICSA/LP Men's Singlehanded Champs Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 17 | 10.0 | 2.93 |
| 39th Harry H. Anderson Jr Trophy | Skipper | A | 13 | 7.4 | 3.57 |
| Danmark Trophy | Skipper | A | 10 | 9.6 | 3.78 |
| 73rd Annual Professor Schell Trophy | Skipper | A | 9 | 5.7 | 4.42 |
| NEISA Men's Singlehanded Champs Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 10 | 5.9 | 4.21 |
| Spring 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Thompson Trophy | Skipper | A | 11 | 7.8 | 3.27 |
| Ted Ferrarone Team Race | Skipper | TR | 17 | 71% | — |
| NEISA Dinghy Champs/CG Alumni Bowl | Skipper | A | 15 | 8.3 | 3.58 |
| Graham Hall Team Race | Skipper | TR | 22 | 32% | — |
| Boston Dinghy Club Challenge Cup | Skipper | A | 17 | 7.8 | 3.57 |
| Fall 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| Sherman Hoyt Trophy | Skipper | A | 12 | 7.0 | 3.95 |
| Nevin's Trophy | Skipper | C | 16 | 6.7 | 3.57 |
| NEISA Men's Singlehanded Championship Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 18 | 5.8 | 3.94 |
| Navy Fall | Skipper | A | 14 | 10.5 | 2.72 |
| LP / ICSA Men's Singlehanded Nationals Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 18 | 11.3 | 2.68 |
| Hewitt Trophy | Skipper | A | 12 | 3.7 | 3.57 |
| Harry Anderson Trophy | Skipper | A | 8 | 6.4 | 3.52 |
| Erwin Schell Trophy | Skipper | A | 12 | 8.6 | 3.42 |
| Spring 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| Truxtun Umsted | Skipper | C | 6 | 7.5 | 3.44 |
| New England Dinghy Championship | Skipper | B | 18 | 7.8 | 3.36 |
| 83rd Boston Dinghy Challenge Cup | Skipper | B | 18 | 7.0 | 3.59 |
| Fall 2011 Team page Season | |||||
| Professor Steadman Hood Trophy | Skipper | B | 4 | 6.8 | 3.31 |
| 138th Rudolph Oberg Trophy | Skipper | B | 11 | 4.9 | 3.57 |
| 70th Prof Erwin Schell Trophy | Skipper | B | 9 | 9.7 | 2.77 |
| Nevins Trophy | Skipper | C | 18 | 6.7 | 3.48 |
| ICSA Men's Singlehandeds Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 15 | 12.1 | 2.50 |
| Danmark Trophy | Skipper | B | 10 | 11.1 | 2.96 |
| Captain Hurst Bowl | Skipper | A | 6 | 11.3 | 3.05 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
