Jan T. Friis Trophy

HostTufts
Date03/22/2014
TypeNOT ALLOWED Interconference
BoatFJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Roger Williams University	Hawks	13–4
2	Brown University	Bears	12–5
3	Boston College	Eagles	11–6
4	Tufts University	Jumbos	10–7
5	Harvard University	Crimson	9–7
6	University of Vermont	Catamounts	5–11
7	Dartmouth College	Big Green	4–8
7	Yale University	Bulldogs	4–8
9	University of Michigan	Wolverines	3–9
9	U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	3–9

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 2,744 team race matches sailed before 2014-03-22, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 52 of 74 matches (70%) with a log-loss of 0.559 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness +0.27 ± 0.29: a typical event, more orderly than 73% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Roger Williams University Hawks	3	10.70 school +0.08	Connor Corgard / Abby Preston 3.50 Henry Vogel / Wendy Reuss 3.34 11–4 William Macdonald / Breanne Baldino 3.85 7–3 William Macdonald / James Kennedy 3.58 6–1 Henry Vogel / Breanne Baldino 3.26 2–0	56%	13–4 (76%)	+3.5
2	Brown University Bears	2	10.92 school +0.30	Lucas Adams / Louisa Chafee 3.70 10–5 Judge Ryan / Jessica O'Dell 3.55 9–4 Tyler Rice / Helen Lord 3.44 7–4 Tyler Rice / Kristin Altreuter 3.42 5–1 Pearson Potts / Lydia Whiteford 3.34 4–1 Pearson Potts / Drew Shea 3.33 1–0	62%	12–5 (71%)	+1.4
3	Boston College Eagles	1	11.57	Erika Reineke / Elizabeth Barnard 3.98 William Bailey / Katherine Wysocki 3.67 Raul Rios / Shelby Hamilton 3.94 7–6 Raul Rios / Alex Palfrey 3.75 4–0	77%	11–6 (65%)	−2.1
4	Tufts University Jumbos	4	10.70 school +0.11, home +0.27	William Haeger / Paula Grasberger 3.84 9–3 Alejandro Ruiz-Ramon / Sara Makaretz 3.33 6–6 David Liebenberg / Scott Barbano 3.11 5–6 David Liebenberg / Kathleen Kwasniak 3.14 5–1 Alejandro Ruiz-Ramon / Sam Madden 3.40 4–1 William Haeger / Casey Gowrie 3.73 1–4	55%	10–7 (59%)	+0.6
5	Harvard University Crimson	5	10.10 school −0.24	Gram Slattery / Julia Lord 3.22 Brian Drumm / Jacob Bradt 3.78 Andrew Mollerus / Sydney Karnovsky 3.29	46%	9–7 (56%)	+1.7
6	University of Vermont Catamounts	6	10.07 school −0.10	Michael Booker / Lauren Jones 3.29 Nate Jermain / Catherine Mitchell 3.20 Michael Zonnenberg / Bridget Murphy 3.64	45%	5–11 (31%)	−2.2
7	Dartmouth College Big Green	8	9.33 school −0.06	Christopher Price / Charlotte Snow 3.07 Colin Murphy / Hope Wilson Scott Houck / Julia Mckown 3.31	37%	4–8 (33%)	−0.5
7	Yale University Bulldogs	7	9.51 school +0.10	Max Nickbarg / Sarah Smith 3.13 2–5 Joseph Kiss / Emily Johnson 2.76 1–6 Marlena Fauer / William Feldman 3.51 3–4 Marlena Fauer / Natalya Doris 3.45 1–4 Max Nickbarg / Natalya Doris 3.16 2–3 Joseph Kiss / Isabelle Rossi De Leon 2.63 2–1 Mitchell Kiss / Emily Johnson 1–1	42%	4–8 (33%)	−1.0
9	University of Michigan Wolverines	10	8.82 school +0.23	Ryan Seago / Karinne Smolenyak 3.04 Alex Ramos / Elizabeth Wallace 2.87 2–8 Will Cyr / Emily Gazall 2.57 2–6 Will Cyr / Scott Ismail 2.39 1–3 Alex Ramos / Scott Ismail 2.98 1–1	27%	3–9 (25%)	−0.2
9	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	9	9.29 school +0.25	Michael Madigan / Megan Hough 2.91 Patrick Snow / Mary Robertson 3.27 Philip Youngberg / Karen Vargas 2.75	36%	3–9 (25%)	−1.4

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
1	Roger Williams University	10.70	11.76	13–4	9.5	+1.06	2.6	5%
5	Harvard University	10.10	10.59	9–7	7.3	+0.49	0.6	26%
2	Brown University	10.92	11.36	12–5	10.5	+0.44	0.4	31%
4	Tufts University	10.70	10.88	10–7	9.4	+0.18	0.1	47%
9	University of Michigan	8.82	8.73	3–9	3.2	−0.09	0.0	67%
7	Dartmouth College	9.33	9.14	4–8	4.4	−0.19	0.1	72%
7	Yale University	9.51	9.10	4–8	5.0	−0.41	0.3	83%
9	U. S. Naval Academy	9.29	8.68	3–9	4.4	−0.61	0.6	89%
3	Boston College	11.57	10.94	11–6	13.1	−0.63	1.0	93%
6	University of Vermont	10.07	9.41	5–11	7.2	−0.66	1.0	93%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
William Macdonald	Roger Williams University	3.85	4.91	13–4	9.5	+1.06	2.6	5%
Connor Corgard	Roger Williams University	3.50	4.56	13–4	9.5	+1.06	2.6	5%
Henry Vogel	Roger Williams University	3.34	4.40	13–4	9.5	+1.06	2.6	5%
Gram Slattery	Harvard University	3.22	3.71	9–7	7.3	+0.49	0.6	26%
Brian Drumm	Harvard University	3.78	4.27	9–7	7.3	+0.49	0.6	26%
Andrew Mollerus	Harvard University	3.29	3.78	9–7	7.3	+0.49	0.6	26%
Tyler Rice	Brown University	3.44	3.88	12–5	10.5	+0.44	0.4	31%
Lucas Adams	Brown University	3.70	4.06	10–5	8.9	+0.35	0.3	38%
William Haeger	Tufts University	3.84	4.02	10–7	9.4	+0.18	0.1	47%
David Liebenberg	Tufts University	3.11	3.28	10–7	9.4	+0.18	0.1	47%
Alejandro Ruiz-Ramon	Tufts University	3.33	3.51	10–7	9.4	+0.18	0.1	47%
Alex Ramos	University of Michigan	2.87	2.77	3–9	3.2	−0.09	0.0	67%
Ryan Seago	University of Michigan	3.04	2.95	3–9	3.2	−0.09	0.0	67%
Christopher Price	Dartmouth College	3.07	2.88	4–8	4.4	−0.19	0.1	72%
Colin Murphy	Dartmouth College	2.84	2.65	4–8	4.4	−0.19	0.1	72%
Scott Houck	Dartmouth College	3.31	3.13	4–8	4.4	−0.19	0.1	72%
Joseph Kiss	Yale University	2.76	2.36	3–7	3.8	−0.40	0.2	82%
Marlena Fauer	Yale University	3.51	3.10	4–8	5.0	−0.41	0.3	83%
Max Nickbarg	Yale University	3.13	2.73	4–8	5.0	−0.41	0.3	83%
Michael Madigan	U. S. Naval Academy	2.91	2.30	3–9	4.4	−0.61	0.6	89%
Patrick Snow	U. S. Naval Academy	3.27	2.66	3–9	4.4	−0.61	0.6	89%
Philip Youngberg	U. S. Naval Academy	2.75	2.14	3–9	4.4	−0.61	0.6	89%
Erika Reineke	Boston College	3.98	3.35	11–6	13.1	−0.63	1.0	93%
Raul Rios	Boston College	3.94	3.31	11–6	13.1	−0.63	1.0	93%
William Bailey	Boston College	3.67	3.04	11–6	13.1	−0.63	1.0	93%
Michael Booker	University of Vermont	3.29	2.64	5–11	7.2	−0.66	1.0	93%
Nate Jermain	University of Vermont	3.20	2.54	5–11	7.2	−0.66	1.0	93%
Michael Zonnenberg	University of Vermont	3.64	2.98	5–11	7.2	−0.66	1.0	93%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Dartmouth College	Harvard University	29%	upset
1	2	Roger Williams University	Brown University	44%	upset
1	3	Boston College	Tufts University	69%
1	4	University of Vermont	U. S. Naval Academy	70%
1	5	University of Michigan	Yale University	38%	upset
1	6	Brown University	Dartmouth College	86%
1	7	Boston College	Harvard University	82%
1	8	Roger Williams University	U. S. Naval Academy	83%
1	9	Tufts University	Yale University	79%
1	10	University of Vermont	University of Michigan	78%
1	11	Brown University	Boston College	31%	upset
1	12	U. S. Naval Academy	Dartmouth College	49%	upset
1	13	Harvard University	Yale University	64%
1	14	Roger Williams University	University of Vermont	59%
1	15	Tufts University	University of Michigan	88%
1	16	Boston College	U. S. Naval Academy	91%
1	17	Brown University	Yale University	79%
1	18	Dartmouth College	University of Vermont	32%	upset
1	19	Tufts University	Harvard University	62%
1	20	Roger Williams University	University of Michigan	87%
1	21	Yale University	U. S. Naval Academy	55%
1	22	Boston College	University of Vermont	80%
1	23	Brown University	Tufts University	60%
1	24	Roger Williams University	Dartmouth College	78%
1	25	Harvard University	University of Michigan	80%
1	26	University of Vermont	Yale University	61%
1	27	Tufts University	U. S. Naval Academy	81%
1	28	Roger Williams University	Boston College	31%	upset
1	29	Harvard University	Brown University	28%	upset
1	30	University of Michigan	Dartmouth College	36%	upset
1	31	Tufts University	University of Vermont	65%
1	32	Roger Williams University	Yale University	74%
1	33	Harvard University	U. S. Naval Academy	69%
1	34	Boston College	Dartmouth College	91%
1	35	Brown University	University of Michigan	85%
1	36	Roger Williams University	Tufts University	52%
1	37	Harvard University	University of Vermont	51%
1	38	Yale University	Dartmouth College	56%
1	39	Brown University	U. S. Naval Academy	79%
1	40	Boston College	University of Michigan	92%
1	41	Roger Williams University	Harvard University	63%
1	42	Tufts University	Dartmouth College	79%
1	43	Brown University	University of Vermont	72%
1	44	Boston College	Yale University	86%
1	45	U. S. Naval Academy	University of Michigan	61%
2	46	University of Michigan	U. S. Naval Academy	39%	upset
2	47	Dartmouth College	Yale University	44%	upset
2	48	Yale University	University of Michigan	59%
2	49	U. S. Naval Academy	Dartmouth College	49%	upset
2	50	Yale University	U. S. Naval Academy	55%
2	51	Dartmouth College	University of Michigan	63%
3	52	Brown University	Tufts University	60%
3	53	Boston College	Harvard University	82%
3	54	Roger Williams University	University of Vermont	62%
3	55	Boston College	Brown University	69%
3	56	Tufts University	University of Vermont	66%
3	57	Harvard University	Roger Williams University	37%	upset
3	58	Boston College	University of Vermont	80%
3	59	Brown University	Harvard University	71%
3	60	Tufts University	Roger Williams University	48%	upset
3	61	Harvard University	University of Vermont	51%
3	62	Tufts University	Boston College	30%	upset
3	63	Roger Williams University	Brown University	44%	upset
3	64	Harvard University	Tufts University	38%	upset
3	65	University of Vermont	Brown University	28%	upset
3	66	Roger Williams University	Boston College	30%	upset
5	67	Brown University	Roger Williams University	56%
5	68	Tufts University	Boston College	30%	upset
5	69	Roger Williams University	Tufts University	52%
5	70	Brown University	Boston College	31%	upset
5	71	Brown University	Tufts University	59%
5	72	Boston College	Roger Williams University	70%
6	73	University of Vermont	Harvard University	49%	upset
7	74	Harvard University	University of Vermont	51%

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Hawks	Bears	Eagles	Jumbos	Crimson	Catamounts	Green	Bulldogs	Wolverines	Midshipmen
Roger Williams University Hawks	9–0	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Brown University Bears	7–2	L	✕	W	W	L	W	W	W	W	W
Boston College Eagles	7–2	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Tufts University Jumbos	6–3	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W
Harvard University Crimson	5–4	L	W	L	L	✕	W	L	W	W	W
University of Vermont Catamounts	3–6	L	L	L	L	L	✕	L	W	W	W
Dartmouth College Big Green	2–7	L	L	L	L	W	W	✕	L	L	L
Yale University Bulldogs	2–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	✕	L	W
University of Michigan Wolverines	2–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	W	✕	L
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	2–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	W	✕

Round 2

Team	Rec.	Green	Bulldogs	Wolverines	Midshipmen
Dartmouth College Big Green	2–1	✕	W	W	L
Yale University Bulldogs	2–1	L	✕	W	W
University of Michigan Wolverines	1–2	L	L	✕	W
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	1–2	W	L	L	✕

Round 3

Team	Rec.	Hawks	Bears	Eagles	Jumbos	Crimson	Catamounts
Roger Williams University Hawks	3–2	✕	W	W	L	L	W
Brown University Bears	2–3	L	✕	L	W	W	L
Boston College Eagles	3–2	L	W	✕	L	W	W
Tufts University Jumbos	3–2	W	L	W	✕	L	W
Harvard University Crimson	3–2	W	L	L	W	✕	W
University of Vermont Catamounts	1–4	L	W	L	L	L	✕

Round 5

Team	Rec.	Hawks	Bears	Eagles	Jumbos
Roger Williams University Hawks	1–2	✕	L	L	W
Brown University Bears	3–0	W	✕	W	W
Boston College Eagles	1–2	W	L	✕	L
Tufts University Jumbos	1–2	L	L	W	✕

Round 6

	Team	Rec.	Crimson	Catamounts
	Harvard University Crimson	0–1	✕	L
	University of Vermont Catamounts	1–0	W	✕

Round 7

	Team	Rec.	Crimson	Catamounts
	Harvard University Crimson	1–0	✕	W
	University of Vermont Catamounts	0–1	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Big Green	1-2-3	def.	Crimson	4-5-6
2	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
3	Eagles	1-2-6	def.	Jumbos	3-4-5
4	Catamounts	1-3-4	def.	Midshipmen	2-5-6
5	Wolverines	1-2-6	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-5
6	Bears	2-3-4	def.	Big Green	1-5-6
7	Eagles	2-3-6	def.	Crimson	1-4-5 DSQ
8	Hawks	2-3-4	def.	Midshipmen	1-5-6
9	Jumbos	1-3-5	def.	Bulldogs	2-4-6
10	Catamounts	1-2-5	def.	Wolverines	3-4-6
11	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Eagles	4-5-6
12	Midshipmen	1-3-6	def.	Big Green	2-4-5
13	Crimson	1-2-6	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-5
14	Hawks	1-4-5	def.	Catamounts	2-3-6 DNF
15	Jumbos	1-2-4	def.	Wolverines	3-5-6
16	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Midshipmen	4-5-6
17	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-6
18	Big Green	1-2-6	def.	Catamounts	3-4-5
19	Jumbos	1-2-3	def.	Crimson	4-5-6
20	Hawks	1-2-4	def.	Wolverines	3-5-6
21	Bulldogs	1-2-6	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-5
22	Eagles	1-2-6	def.	Catamounts	3-4-5
23	Bears	2-3-4	def.	Jumbos	1-5-6
24	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Big Green	4-5-6
25	Crimson	1-2-6	def.	Wolverines	3-4-5
26	Catamounts	1-2-5	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-6
27	Jumbos	1-3-5	def.	Midshipmen	2-4-6
28	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Eagles	3-4-6
29	Crimson	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
30	Wolverines	1-4-5	def.	Big Green	2-3-6
31	Jumbos	2-3-4	def.	Catamounts	1-5-6
32	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-6
33	Crimson	1-2-6	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-5
34	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Big Green	4-5-6
35	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Wolverines	4-5-6
36	Hawks	1-4-5 DSQ	def.	Jumbos	2-3-6 DSQ
37	Crimson	3-4-5	def.	Catamounts	1-2-6 DSQ
38	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Big Green	3-4-6
39	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-6
40	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Wolverines	4-5-6 DNF,DNF,DNF
41	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Crimson	4-5-6
42	Jumbos	1-2-4	def.	Big Green	3-5-6
43	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Catamounts	3-4-6
44	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Bulldogs	3-5-6
45	Midshipmen	1-2-4	def.	Wolverines	3-5-6
46	Wolverines	2-3-4	def.	Midshipmen	1-5-6
47	Big Green	1-3-6	def.	Bulldogs	2-4-5
48	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Wolverines	3-5-6
49	Midshipmen	2-3-4	def.	Big Green	1-5-6
50	Bulldogs	2-3-4	def.	Midshipmen	1-5-6
51	Big Green	1-3-4	def.	Wolverines	2-5-6
52	Bears	2-3-4	def.	Jumbos	1-5-6
53	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Crimson	3-4-6
54	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Catamounts	4-5-6
55	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
56	Jumbos	1-2-3	def.	Catamounts	4-5-6
57	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Hawks	3-4-6
58	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Catamounts	3-4-6
59	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Crimson	3-4-6
60	Jumbos	1-2-6	def.	Hawks	3-4-5
61	Crimson	1-2-3	def.	Catamounts	4-5-6 DNF
62	Jumbos	2-3-4	def.	Eagles	1-5-6
63	Hawks	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
64	Crimson	1-5-6	def.	Jumbos	2-3-4 DSQ
65	Catamounts	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
66	Hawks	1-2-4	def.	Eagles	3-5-6
67	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Hawks	3-5-6
68	Jumbos	1-5-6	def.	Eagles	2-3-4 DSQ
69	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
70	Bears	3-4-6	def.	Eagles	1-2-5 DSQ
71	Bears	1-3-6	def.	Jumbos	2-4-5
72	Eagles	1-2-5 DSQ	def.	Hawks	3-4-6 DSQ
73	Catamounts	2-3-4	def.	Crimson	1-5-6
74	Crimson	1-2-4	def.	Catamounts	3-5-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Roger Williams University	Hawks	Connor Corgard '16 Henry Vogel '15 William Macdonald '15	Abby Preston '15 Wendy Reuss '15 Breanne Baldino '16 James Kennedy '17
Brown University	Bears	Judge Ryan '14 Lucas Adams '15 Pearson Potts '16 Tyler Rice '14	Jessica O'Dell '17 Louisa Chafee '14 Lydia Whiteford '15 Drew Shea '14 Helen Lord '14 Kristin Altreuter '14
Boston College	Eagles	Erika Reineke '17 Raul Rios '16 William Bailey '15	Elizabeth Barnard '15 Shelby Hamilton '14 Alex Palfrey '17 Katherine Wysocki '15
Tufts University	Jumbos	Alejandro Ruiz-Ramon '15 David Liebenberg '14 William Haeger '14	Sara Makaretz '14 Sam Madden '15 Scott Barbano '17 Kathleen Kwasniak '14 Paula Grasberger '14 Casey Gowrie '16
Harvard University	Crimson	Andrew Mollerus '16 Brian Drumm '15 Gram Slattery '15	Sydney Karnovsky '16 Jacob Bradt '16 Julia Lord '17
University of Vermont	Catamounts	Michael Booker '15 Michael Zonnenberg '15 Nate Jermain '15	Lauren Jones '15 Bridget Murphy '15 Catherine Mitchell '14
Dartmouth College	Big Green	Christopher Price '14 Colin Murphy '15 Scott Houck '15	Charlotte Snow '15 Hope Wilson '16 Julia Mckown '17
Yale University	Bulldogs	Joseph Kiss '17 Marlena Fauer '14 Max Nickbarg '14 Mitchell Kiss '17	Emily Johnson '16 Isabelle Rossi De Leon '17 William Feldman '14 Natalya Doris '17 Sarah Smith '15
University of Michigan	Wolverines	Alex Ramos '15 Ryan Seago '14 Will Cyr '14	Elizabeth Wallace '15 Scott Ismail '14 Karinne Smolenyak '15 Emily Gazall '16
U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	Michael Madigan '17 Patrick Snow '17 Philip Youngberg '15	Megan Hough '16 Mary Robertson '17 Karen Vargas '16

Conditions — 03/22/2014 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 57% · Pressure 1008.4 hPa

Temperature

45°F

↑ 55°F ↓ 30°F

Feels like 36°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

10.9 kn

avg · max 15.2 kn

Gusts to 30.9 kn

From SSW (201°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover64% Sunshine9.0 hrs Humidity57% Pressure1008.4 hPa Rain0.01 in

What this breeze does at Tufts — from fleet racing

Breeze: S about 13 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Tufts in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.08)

Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.08 means a rating gap counts about 7% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Tufts by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (60 labelled fleet-race days at Tufts).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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