Harvard University '15
Each discipline has its own scale, built from the sailor's main rating and their results in that discipline. The numbers are not comparable with the main rating or with each other.
How these ratings work →| Discipline | Rating | Rank | Races | Last raced |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keelboat | 1.36 | unranked (fewer than 10 races or not active) | 15 | Fall 2014 |
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.39 (fleet 3.29) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 111–67 (62%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2015 | 3 | 29–15 | — |
| Fall 2014 | 3 | 20–7 | — |
| Spring 2014 | 5 | 31–31 | — |
| Spring 2013 | 2 | 22–9 | — |
| Fall 2012 | 1 | 9–5 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 11 graded regattas (133 matches) the record is 80–53 against 69.7 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+10.3). 4 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 14 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-04-11 | Fowle Trophy | skipper | 3.72 | 3.54 | 10–8 | 10.7 | −0.18 | 0.1 | 73% |
| 2015-04-04 | 34th Lynne Marchiando Regatta | skipper | 3.63 | 5.00 | 11–2 | 8.2 | +1.37 | 2.5 | 7% |
| 2015-03-28 | Jan T. Friis Team Race | skipper | 3.70 | 4.96 | 8–5 | 5.0 | +1.26 | 2.7 | 5% |
| 2014-11-08 | Hap Moore Team Race | skipper | 3.66 | 5.33 | 7–1 | 5.2 | +1.66 | 2.0 | 12% |
| 2014-10-19 | Lane Trophy | skipper | 3.70 | 2.26 | 4–5 | 6.5 | −1.44 | 2.6 | 99% |
| 2014-10-18 | Norman Reid Team Race | skipper | 3.59 | 5.14 | 9–1 | 7.0 | +1.54 | 1.9 | 12% |
| 2014-04-05 | Fowle New England Team Race Champs | skipper | 3.39 | 3.26 | 1–3 | 1.1 | −0.13 | 0.0 | 74% |
| 2014-03-29 | 33rd Lynne Marchiando Regatta | skipper | 3.26 | 3.67 | 14–8 | 12.2 | +0.41 | 0.5 | 28% |
| 2014-03-22 | Jan T. Friis Trophy | skipper | 3.22 | 3.71 | 9–7 | 7.3 | +0.49 | 0.6 | 26% |
| 2014-03-15 | Southern New-England Team Race | skipper | 3.22 | 3.79 | 5–6 | 3.9 | +0.57 | 0.5 | 31% |
| 2014-03-08 | St. Mary's Team Race | skipper | 2.96 | 2.47 | 2–7 | 2.6 | −0.49 | 0.2 | 84% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Thompson Trophy | Skipper | B | 13 | 10.9 | 2.60 |
| Jan T. Friis Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 64% | — |
| Fowle Trophy | Skipper | TR | 18 | 56% | — |
| 80th Boston Dinghy Cup | Skipper | B | 9 | 6.6 | 3.96 |
| 34th Lynne Marchiando Regatta | Skipper | TR | 15 | 80% | — |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Olympians Regatta Keelboat | Skipper | A | 15 | 4.1 | 1.13 |
| Norman Reid Team Race | Skipper | TR | 10 | 90% | — |
| Lane Trophy | Skipper | TR | 9 | 44% | — |
| Hatch Brown Trophy | Skipper | B | 17 | 7.4 | 3.70 |
| Hap Moore Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 79% | — |
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Thompson Trophy | Skipper | B | 11 | 11.6 | 2.41 |
| St. Mary's Team Race | Skipper | TR | 9 | 22% | — |
| Southern New-England Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 43% | — |
| 33rd Lynne Marchiando Regatta | Skipper | TR | 22 | 64% | — |
| Jan T. Friis Trophy | Skipper | TR | 16 | 56% | — |
| Gill National Championship Finals | Skipper | A | 1 | 17.0 | — |
| Fowle New England Team Race Champs | Skipper | TR | 16 | 44% | — |
| 79th Boston Dinghy Cup | Skipper | C | 14 | 7.7 | 3.16 |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Sherman Hoyt Trophy | Skipper | B | 12 | 10.0 | 3.13 |
| 64th Nevins Trophy | Skipper | A | 10 | 12.0 | 2.85 |
| 31st Hood Trophy | Skipper | B | 9 | 4.7 | 4.18 |
| Danmark Trophy | Skipper | A | 3 | 13.3 | 2.96 |
| Captain Hurst Bowl | Skipper | B | 14 | 11.1 | 2.29 |
| Spring 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Truxtun Umsted | Skipper | A | 4 | 15.5 | 2.03 |
| Ted Ferrarone Team Race | Skipper | TR | 18 | 94% | — |
| Sharpe Trophy | Skipper | TR | 13 | 38% | — |
| Owen / Mosbacher / Knapp Trophies | Skipper | A | 18 | 9.2 | 2.63 |
| NEISA Dinghy Champs/CG Alumni Bowl | Skipper | A | 6 | 6.8 | 4.00 |
| Fall 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| Sherman Hoyt Trophy | Skipper | A | 12 | 9.7 | 3.25 |
| Nevin's Trophy | Skipper | A | 16 | 12.3 | 2.48 |
| Hood Trophy | Skipper | A | 10 | 6.5 | 3.70 |
| Harry Anderson Trophy | Skipper | A | 7 | 9.3 | 2.44 |
| Hap Moore Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 64% | — |
| Erwin Schell Trophy | Skipper | A | 12 | 8.1 | 3.58 |
| Danmark Trophy | Skipper | A | 4 | 17.0 | 1.59 |
| Captain Hurst Bowl | Skipper | A | 6 | 7.2 | 3.73 |
| ACC-qualified NE FR Scrimmage | Skipper | A | 6 | 9.3 | 2.33 |
| Spring 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| Truxtun Umsted | Skipper | B | 2 | 9.5 | 3.15 |
| Thompson Trophy | Skipper | A | 18 | 12.2 | 2.29 |
| Owen, Mosbacher&Knapp Trophies | Skipper | A | 12 | 6.9 | 2.71 |
| Fall 2011 Team page Season | |||||
| Sherman Hoyt Trophy | Skipper | A | 6 | 11.7 | 2.58 |
| Moody Trophy | Skipper | A | 9 | 13.3 | 2.12 |
| The Hatch Brown Trophy | Skipper | C | 16 | 10.1 | 2.32 |
| Atlantic Coast Championship | Skipper | B | 4 | 11.5 | 2.80 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
