Fowle New England Team Race Champs

HostConnecticut College
Date04/05/2014
TypeConference Championship
BoatFJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Roger Williams University	Hawks	13–3
2	Yale University	Bulldogs	13–3
3	Boston College	Eagles	11–5
4	Tufts University	Jumbos	11–5
5	Dartmouth College	Big Green	8–8
6	Harvard University	Crimson	7–9
7	Brown University	Bears	5–6
8	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Engineers	4–7
9	Connecticut College	Camels	3–8
10	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	3–8
11	University of Vermont	Catamounts	2–9
12	Bowdoin College	Polar Bears	1–10

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 3,412 team race matches sailed before 2014-04-05, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 58 of 81 matches (72%) with a log-loss of 0.545 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness +0.11 ± 0.25: a typical event, more orderly than 55% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Roger Williams University Hawks	5	10.98 school +0.10	William Macdonald / Breanne Baldino 3.90 Henry Vogel / Wendy Reuss 3.41 Connor Corgard / Abby Preston 3.55	54%	13–3 (81%)	+4.4
2	Yale University Bulldogs	1	12.45	Christopher Segerblom / Charlotte Belling 4.03 Ian Barrows / Meredith Megarry 3.94 Graham Landy / Katherine Gaumond 4.47 8–1 Graham Landy / Eugenia Custo Greig 4.42 5–2	84%	13–3 (81%)	−0.4
3	Boston College Eagles	2	11.52	William Bailey / Katherine Wysocki 3.68 Raul Rios / Shelby Hamilton 3.86 Erika Reineke / Elizabeth Barnard 3.96	66%	11–5 (69%)	+0.4
4	Tufts University Jumbos	6	10.85 school +0.07	William Haeger / Paula Grasberger 3.97 David Liebenberg / Kathleen Kwasniak 3.28 Alejandro Ruiz-Ramon / Sam Madden 3.56 9–4 Alejandro Ruiz-Ramon / Alexander Tong 3.27 2–1	51%	11–5 (69%)	+2.9
5	Dartmouth College Big Green	4	11.12 school −0.21	Matthew Wefer / Avery Plough 4.14 Deirdre Lambert / Nathaniel Greason 3.86 Evan Read / Abigail Rohman 3.30	59%	8–8 (50%)	−1.4
6	Harvard University Crimson	7	10.53 school −0.26	Michael Drumm / Isabel Ruane 3.53 Brian Drumm / Jacob Bradt 3.88 Andrew Mollerus / Sydney Karnovsky 3.33 6–6 Gram Slattery / Sydney Karnovsky 3.39 1–3	42%	7–9 (44%)	+0.2
7	Brown University Bears	3	11.03 school +0.45	Tyler Rice / Helen Lord 3.45 Judge Ryan / Jessica O'Dell 3.54 Lucas Adams / Louisa Chafee 3.70 3–4 Pearson Potts / Lydia Whiteford 3.34 2–2	60%	5–6 (45%)	−1.6
8	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	11	9.59	David Alfonso / Iris Xu 3.49 Joseph Paggi / Christopher Ford 2.92 Alexander Stewart / Paige Omura 3.13	29%	4–7 (36%)	+0.8
9	Connecticut College Camels	9	10.16 school −0.19, home +0.37	Jordan Bothwick / Victoria Allen 2.92 Kevin Martland / Lea Bushnell 3.76 Ig Schottlaender / Kim Bolick 3.10 2–4 Bryce Kopp / Grace Medley 3.46 1–4	41%	3–8 (27%)	−1.5
10	U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	12	8.99 school −0.37	Avery Fanning / Robert Turley 3.26 Dylan Finneran / Jaimie Chicoine 2.56 Nikole Barnes / Cyrus Unvala 3.49 2–6 Nikole Barnes / Michael Caballero 3.58 1–2	17%	3–8 (27%)	+1.1
11	University of Vermont Catamounts	8	10.24 school −0.12	Nate Jermain / Lauren Jones 3.34 2–7 Jordan Factor / Sara Anibal 3.48 2–7 Michael Zonnenberg / Bridget Murphy 3.61 1–8 Nate Jermain / Sara Anibal 3.40 0–2 Michael Booker / Lauren Jones 3.36 0–2 Michael Booker / Travis Bobley 3.25 1–1	42%	2–9 (18%)	−2.6
12	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	10	9.67 school +0.46	Peter Edmunds / Julia Rew 2.99 0–8 Jack Mcguire / Charlotte Williamson 3.21 1–7 Tom Peabody / Mary Paz 2.93 1–6 Michael Croteau / Jackson Bloch 3.05 1–5 Michael Croteau / Mary Paz 3.17 0–4	31%	1–10 (9%)	−2.4

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
1	Roger Williams University	10.98	12.51	13–3	8.6	+1.53	4.5	1%
4	Tufts University	10.85	11.74	11–5	8.1	+0.89	1.8	10%
10	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	8.99	9.66	3–8	1.8	+0.67	0.6	27%
8	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	9.59	9.99	4–7	3.2	+0.40	0.2	39%
3	Boston College	11.52	11.64	11–5	10.6	+0.12	0.0	54%
6	Harvard University	10.53	10.59	7–9	6.8	+0.06	0.0	56%
2	Yale University	12.45	12.25	13–3	13.4	−0.20	0.1	76%
5	Dartmouth College	11.12	10.71	8–8	9.4	−0.42	0.4	85%
7	Brown University	11.03	10.35	5–6	6.6	−0.68	0.8	92%
9	Connecticut College	10.16	9.45	3–8	4.5	−0.71	0.7	91%
11	University of Vermont	10.24	8.88	2–9	4.6	−1.36	2.3	99%
12	Bowdoin College	9.67	7.97	1–10	3.4	−1.70	2.5	99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
William Macdonald	Roger Williams University	3.90	5.43	13–3	8.6	+1.53	4.5	1%
Henry Vogel	Roger Williams University	3.41	4.94	13–3	8.6	+1.53	4.5	1%
Connor Corgard	Roger Williams University	3.55	5.07	13–3	8.6	+1.53	4.5	1%
William Haeger	Tufts University	3.97	4.86	11–5	8.1	+0.89	1.8	10%
David Liebenberg	Tufts University	3.28	4.17	11–5	8.1	+0.89	1.8	10%
Alejandro Ruiz-Ramon	Tufts University	3.56	4.46	11–5	8.1	+0.89	1.8	10%
Nikole Barnes	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	3.49	4.15	3–8	1.8	+0.67	0.6	27%
Avery Fanning	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	3.26	3.92	3–8	1.8	+0.67	0.6	27%
Dylan Finneran	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	2.56	3.23	3–8	1.8	+0.67	0.6	27%
David Alfonso	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	3.49	3.89	4–7	3.2	+0.40	0.2	39%
Joseph Paggi	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	2.92	3.33	4–7	3.2	+0.40	0.2	39%
Alexander Stewart	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	3.13	3.53	4–7	3.2	+0.40	0.2	39%
William Bailey	Boston College	3.68	3.80	11–5	10.6	+0.12	0.0	54%
Raul Rios	Boston College	3.86	3.98	11–5	10.6	+0.12	0.0	54%
Erika Reineke	Boston College	3.96	4.08	11–5	10.6	+0.12	0.0	54%
Andrew Mollerus	Harvard University	3.33	3.44	6–6	5.7	+0.11	0.0	55%
Michael Drumm	Harvard University	3.53	3.59	7–9	6.8	+0.06	0.0	56%
Brian Drumm	Harvard University	3.88	3.94	7–9	6.8	+0.06	0.0	56%
Gram Slattery	Harvard University	3.39	3.26	1–3	1.1	−0.13	0.0	74%
Christopher Segerblom	Yale University	4.03	3.83	13–3	13.4	−0.20	0.1	76%
Graham Landy	Yale University	4.47	4.27	13–3	13.4	−0.20	0.1	76%
Ian Barrows	Yale University	3.94	3.74	13–3	13.4	−0.20	0.1	76%
Ig Schottlaender	Connecticut College	3.10	2.82	2–4	2.3	−0.27	0.1	77%
Matthew Wefer	Dartmouth College	4.14	3.72	8–8	9.4	−0.42	0.4	85%
Deirdre Lambert	Dartmouth College	3.86	3.44	8–8	9.4	−0.42	0.4	85%
Evan Read	Dartmouth College	3.30	2.89	8–8	9.4	−0.42	0.4	85%
Lucas Adams	Brown University	3.70	3.10	3–4	3.9	−0.59	0.4	87%
Tom Peabody	Bowdoin College	2.93	2.32	1–6	1.6	−0.62	0.2	85%
Tyler Rice	Brown University	3.45	2.77	5–6	6.6	−0.68	0.8	92%
Jordan Bothwick	Connecticut College	2.92	2.21	3–8	4.5	−0.71	0.7	91%
Kevin Martland	Connecticut College	3.76	3.06	3–8	4.5	−0.71	0.7	91%
Michael Booker	University of Vermont	3.36	2.45	1–3	1.7	−0.90	0.5	91%
Jordan Factor	University of Vermont	3.48	2.48	2–7	3.6	−1.00	1.1	95%
Bryce Kopp	Connecticut College	3.46	2.12	1–4	2.1	−1.34	1.0	96%
Nate Jermain	University of Vermont	3.34	1.97	2–9	4.6	−1.36	2.3	99%
Jack Mcguire	Bowdoin College	3.21	1.65	1–7	2.9	−1.55	1.9	98%
Michael Croteau	Bowdoin College	3.05	1.36	1–9	3.3	−1.69	2.4	99%
Michael Zonnenberg	University of Vermont	3.61	1.53	1–8	3.8	−2.08	3.7	>99%
Peter Edmunds	Bowdoin College	2.99	-0.01	0–8	2.4	≤−3.00	4.4	>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Connecticut College	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	80%
1	2	Harvard University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	71%
1	3	Roger Williams University	Dartmouth College	47%	upset
1	4	Tufts University	Brown University	52%
1	5	University of Vermont	Bowdoin College	62%
1	6	Yale University	Boston College	72%
1	7	Harvard University	Connecticut College	54%
1	8	Dartmouth College	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	89%
1	9	Brown University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	77%
1	10	Roger Williams University	Bowdoin College	76%
1	11	Tufts University	Yale University	17%	upset
1	12	Boston College	University of Vermont	77%
1	13	Dartmouth College	Harvard University	65%
1	14	Brown University	Connecticut College	61%
1	15	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bowdoin College	29%	upset
1	16	Yale University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	95%
1	17	Roger Williams University	University of Vermont	66%
1	18	Boston College	Tufts University	65%
1	19	Dartmouth College	Brown University	49%	upset
1	20	Harvard University	Bowdoin College	74%
1	21	Yale University	Connecticut College	89%
1	22	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	University of Vermont	21%	upset
1	23	Tufts University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	79%
1	24	Roger Williams University	Boston College	37%	upset
1	25	Brown University	Bowdoin College	85%
1	26	Yale University	Dartmouth College	79%
1	27	Harvard University	University of Vermont	55%
1	28	Tufts University	Connecticut College	63%
1	29	Roger Williams University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	88%
1	30	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Boston College	13%	upset
1	31	Yale University	Bowdoin College	94%
1	32	Brown University	University of Vermont	70%
1	33	Tufts University	Dartmouth College	37%	upset
1	34	Roger Williams University	Harvard University	62%
1	35	Connecticut College	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	60%
1	36	Boston College	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	92%
1	37	Yale University	University of Vermont	89%
1	38	Bowdoin College	Tufts University	28%	upset
1	39	Roger Williams University	Brown University	45%	upset
1	40	Dartmouth College	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	82%
1	41	Harvard University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	81%
1	42	Boston College	Connecticut College	82%
1	43	Tufts University	University of Vermont	66%
1	44	Roger Williams University	Yale University	19%	upset
1	45	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Bowdoin College	48%	upset
1	46	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Brown University	15%	upset
1	47	Dartmouth College	Connecticut College	75%
1	48	Boston College	Harvard University	73%
1	49	Tufts University	Roger Williams University	48%	upset
1	50	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	University of Vermont	34%	upset
1	51	Yale University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	97%
1	52	Connecticut College	Bowdoin College	53%
1	53	Brown University	Harvard University	66%
1	54	Dartmouth College	Boston College	40%	upset
1	55	Roger Williams University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	80%
1	56	Tufts University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	87%
1	57	University of Vermont	Connecticut College	49%	upset
1	58	Yale University	Harvard University	87%
1	59	Dartmouth College	Bowdoin College	81%
1	60	Boston College	Brown University	59%
1	61	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	65%
1	62	Roger Williams University	Connecticut College	73%
1	63	Harvard University	Tufts University	42%	upset
1	64	Dartmouth College	University of Vermont	76%
1	65	Yale University	Brown University	79%
1	66	Boston College	Bowdoin College	89%
2	67	Tufts University	Dartmouth College	38%	upset
2	68	Yale University	Boston College	72%
2	69	Roger Williams University	Harvard University	61%
2	70	Yale University	Tufts University	83%
2	71	Harvard University	Dartmouth College	35%	upset
2	72	Boston College	Roger Williams University	63%
2	73	Yale University	Harvard University	87%
2	74	Boston College	Tufts University	65%
2	75	Roger Williams University	Dartmouth College	46%	upset
2	76	Boston College	Harvard University	73%
2	77	Yale University	Dartmouth College	78%
2	78	Tufts University	Roger Williams University	48%	upset
2	79	Boston College	Dartmouth College	60%
2	80	Tufts University	Harvard University	58%
2	81	Roger Williams University	Yale University	19%	upset

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Hawks	Bulldogs	Eagles	Jumbos	Green	Crimson	Bears	Engineers	Camels	Bears	Catamounts	Bears
Roger Williams University Hawks	10–1	✕	W	W	L	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Yale University Bulldogs	9–2	L	✕	W	L	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Boston College Eagles	7–4	L	L	✕	W	L	W	W	L	W	W	W	W
Tufts University Jumbos	8–3	W	W	L	✕	W	L	W	W	W	W	W	L
Dartmouth College Big Green	8–3	L	L	W	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Harvard University Crimson	6–5	L	L	L	W	L	✕	L	W	W	W	W	W
Brown University Bears	5–6	L	L	L	L	L	W	✕	W	W	L	W	W
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	4–7	L	L	W	L	L	L	L	✕	L	W	W	W
Connecticut College Camels	3–8	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	✕	W	L	W
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	3–8	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	L	✕	W	W
University of Vermont Catamounts	2–9	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	✕	W
Bowdoin College Polar Bears	1–10	L	L	L	W	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 2

Team	Rec.	Hawks	Bulldogs	Eagles	Jumbos	Green	Crimson
Roger Williams University Hawks	3–2	✕	W	L	L	W	W
Yale University Bulldogs	4–1	L	✕	W	W	W	W
Boston College Eagles	4–1	W	L	✕	W	W	W
Tufts University Jumbos	3–2	W	L	L	✕	W	W
Dartmouth College Big Green	0–5	L	L	L	L	✕	L
Harvard University Crimson	1–4	L	L	L	L	W	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Camels	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
2	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Engineers	3-4-6
3	Hawks	1-4-5	def.	Big Green	2-3-6
4	Jumbos	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
5	Catamounts	1-2-5	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-6
6	Bulldogs	1-2-6	def.	Eagles	3-4-5
7	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Camels	3-4-6
8	Big Green	2-3-4	def.	Bears	1-5-6
9	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Engineers	3-5-6
10	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-6
11	Jumbos	2-3-4	def.	Bulldogs	1-5-6
12	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Catamounts	3-5-6
13	Big Green	2-3-4	def.	Crimson	1-5-6
14	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Camels	3-4-6
15	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Polar Bears	3-5-6
16	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Engineers	3-4-6
17	Hawks	1-3-5	def.	Catamounts	2-4-6
18	Eagles	1-3-6	def.	Jumbos	2-4-5
19	Big Green	2-3-5	def.	Bears	1-4-6
20	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-6
21	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Camels	3-5-6
22	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Catamounts	3-4-6
23	Jumbos	1-2-4	def.	Engineers	3-5-6
24	Hawks	1-2-6	def.	Eagles	3-4-5
25	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Polar Bears	3-5-6
26	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Big Green	4-5-6
27	Crimson	1-2-6	def.	Catamounts	3-4-5
28	Jumbos	1-2-6	def.	Camels	3-4-5
29	Hawks	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
30	Engineers	3-4-6	def.	Eagles	1-2-5 DSQ
31	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Polar Bears	3-5-6
32	Bears	1-3-5	def.	Catamounts	2-4-6
33	Jumbos	1-2-4	def.	Big Green	3-5-6
34	Hawks	2-3-4	def.	Crimson	1-5-6
35	Camels	1-2-6	def.	Engineers	3-4-5
36	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
37	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Catamounts	3-4-6
38	Polar Bears	1-2-6	def.	Jumbos	3-4-5
39	Hawks	2-3-4	def.	Bears	1-5-6
40	Big Green	1-3-5	def.	Engineers	2-4-6
41	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
42	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Camels	3-4-6
43	Jumbos	1-2-3	def.	Catamounts	4-5-6
44	Hawks	2-3-5	def.	Bulldogs	1-4-6
45	Engineers	1-2-6	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-5
46	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
47	Big Green	1-3-5	def.	Camels	2-4-6
48	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Crimson	3-5-6
49	Jumbos	1-2-6	def.	Hawks	3-4-5
50	Engineers	1-2-4	def.	Catamounts	3-5-6
51	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
52	Camels	2-3-4	def.	Polar Bears	1-5-6
53	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Crimson	3-4-5
54	Big Green	1-3-5	def.	Eagles	2-4-6
55	Hawks	1-3-6	def.	Engineers	2-4-5
56	Jumbos	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
57	Catamounts	2-3-4	def.	Camels	1-5-6
58	Bulldogs	1-2-6	def.	Crimson	3-4-5
59	Big Green	1-3-6	def.	Polar Bears	2-4-5
60	Eagles	2-3-4	def.	Bears	1-5-6
61	Engineers	1-4-5	def.	Bears	2-3-6
62	Hawks	1-3-5	def.	Camels	2-4-6
63	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
64	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Catamounts	3-4-6
65	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
66	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-6
67	Jumbos	1-2-6	def.	Big Green	3-4-5
68	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Eagles	3-4-6
69	Hawks	1-2-4	def.	Crimson	3-5-6
70	Bulldogs	1-2-6	def.	Jumbos	3-4-5
71	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Big Green	3-4-6
72	Eagles	2-3-4	def.	Hawks	1-5-6
73	Bulldogs	1-4-5	def.	Crimson	2-3-6
74	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Jumbos	3-5-6
75	Hawks	1-3-4	def.	Big Green	2-5-6
76	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Crimson	4-5-6
77	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Big Green	3-5-6
78	Jumbos	1-2-5	def.	Hawks	3-4-6
79	Eagles	2-3-5	def.	Big Green	1-4-6
80	Jumbos	1-2-6	def.	Crimson	3-4-5
81	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Roger Williams University	Hawks	Connor Corgard '16 Henry Vogel '15 William Macdonald '15	Abby Preston '15 Wendy Reuss '15 Breanne Baldino '16
Yale University	Bulldogs	Christopher Segerblom '14 Graham Landy '15 Ian Barrows '17	Charlotte Belling '16 Eugenia Custo Greig '14 Katherine Gaumond '15 Meredith Megarry '17
Boston College	Eagles	Erika Reineke '17 Raul Rios '16 William Bailey '15	Elizabeth Barnard '15 Shelby Hamilton '14 Katherine Wysocki '15
Tufts University	Jumbos	Alejandro Ruiz-Ramon '15 David Liebenberg '14 William Haeger '14	Sam Madden '15 Alexander Tong '17 Kathleen Kwasniak '14 Paula Grasberger '14
Dartmouth College	Big Green	Deirdre Lambert '15 Evan Read '16 Matthew Wefer '14	Nathaniel Greason '17 Abigail Rohman '16 Avery Plough '14
Harvard University	Crimson	Andrew Mollerus '16 Brian Drumm '15 Gram Slattery '15 Michael Drumm '15	Sydney Karnovsky '16 Jacob Bradt '16 Isabel Ruane '14
Brown University	Bears	Judge Ryan '14 Lucas Adams '15 Pearson Potts '16 Tyler Rice '14	Jessica O'Dell '17 Louisa Chafee '14 Lydia Whiteford '15 Helen Lord '14
Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Engineers	Alexander Stewart '17 David Alfonso '14 Joseph Paggi '16	Paige Omura '17 Iris Xu '14 Christopher Ford '16
Connecticut College	Camels	Bryce Kopp '16 Ig Schottlaender '14 Jordan Bothwick '15 Kevin Martland '14	Grace Medley '15 Kim Bolick '15 Victoria Allen '16 Lea Bushnell '15
U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	Avery Fanning '16 Dylan Finneran '15 Nikole Barnes '17	Robert Turley '16 Jaimie Chicoine '14 Cyrus Unvala '14 Michael Caballero '14
University of Vermont	Catamounts	Jordan Factor '14 Michael Booker '15 Michael Zonnenberg '15 Nate Jermain '15	Sara Anibal '14 Travis Bobley '17 Lauren Jones '15 Bridget Murphy '15
Bowdoin College	Polar Bears	Jack Mcguire '17 Michael Croteau '15 Peter Edmunds '14 Tom Peabody '14	Charlotte Williamson '15 Mary Paz '17 Jackson Bloch '15 Julia Rew '16

Conditions — 04/05/2014 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 62% · Pressure 1007.9 hPa

Temperature

49°F

↑ 52°F ↓ 40°F

Feels like 42°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

8.9 kn

avg · max 12.0 kn

Gusts to 27.6 kn

From W (280°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover84% Sunshine10.3 hrs Humidity62% Pressure1007.9 hPa

What this breeze does at Connecticut College — from fleet racing

Breeze: W about 11 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Connecticut College in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.08)

Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.08 means a rating gap counts about 7% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Connecticut College by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (51 labelled fleet-race days at Connecticut College).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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