Brown University '15
Each discipline has its own scale, built from the sailor's main rating and their results in that discipline. The numbers are not comparable with the main rating or with each other.
How these ratings work →| Discipline | Rating | Rank | Races | Last raced |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Singlehanded | 2.98 | unranked (fewer than 10 races or not active) | 75 | Fall 2013 |
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.78 (fleet 3.83) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 105–85 (55%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2015 | 5 | 34–41 | — |
| Fall 2014 | 1 | 7–6 | — |
| Spring 2014 | 4 | 32–21 | — |
| Fall 2013 | 1 | 9–5 | — |
| Spring 2013 | 2 | 23–12 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 11 graded regattas (155 matches) the record is 82–73 against 83.5 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−1.5). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 5 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 5 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-04-11 | Fowle Trophy | skipper | 3.62 | 3.22 | 7–10 | 8.4 | −0.41 | 0.4 | 85% |
| 2015-04-04 | 34th Lynne Marchiando Regatta | skipper | 3.59 | 3.16 | 8–7 | 9.3 | −0.43 | 0.4 | 85% |
| 2015-03-28 | Jan T. Friis Team Race | skipper | 3.54 | 4.22 | 8–6 | 6.1 | +0.67 | 0.9 | 20% |
| 2015-03-21 | Graham Hall Team Race | skipper | 3.53 | 2.85 | 6–9 | 7.8 | −0.68 | 0.9 | 92% |
| 2015-03-14 | St. Mary's Team Race | skipper | 3.44 | 3.81 | 5–9 | 4.2 | +0.37 | 0.2 | 40% |
| 2014-11-08 | Hap Moore Team Race | skipper | 3.23 | 2.62 | 7–6 | 8.7 | −0.61 | 0.7 | 91% |
| 2014-04-05 | Fowle New England Team Race Champs | skipper | 3.70 | 3.10 | 3–4 | 3.9 | −0.59 | 0.4 | 87% |
| 2014-03-29 | 33rd Lynne Marchiando Regatta | skipper | 3.67 | 3.76 | 11–8 | 10.6 | +0.09 | 0.0 | 53% |
| 2014-03-22 | Jan T. Friis Trophy | skipper | 3.70 | 4.06 | 10–5 | 8.9 | +0.35 | 0.3 | 38% |
| 2014-03-15 | Graham Hall Team Race | skipper | 3.80 | 4.41 | 8–4 | 6.9 | +0.61 | 0.5 | 32% |
| 2013-11-09 | Hap Moore Team Race | skipper | 3.76 | 3.88 | 9–5 | 8.7 | +0.12 | 0.0 | 54% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Mary's Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 36% | — |
| Jan T. Friis Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 57% | — |
| Graham Hall Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 40% | — |
| Gill Coed Western Semifinals | Skipper | A | 12 | 6.5 | 4.18 |
| Fowle Trophy | Skipper | TR | 18 | 44% | — |
| Coast Guard Alumni Bowl/NE Champs | Skipper | A | 15 | 6.0 | 4.58 |
| 80th Boston Dinghy Cup | Skipper | A | 9 | 7.8 | 3.96 |
| 34th Lynne Marchiando Regatta | Skipper | TR | 15 | 53% | — |
| Gill College Sailing Coed National Championship | Skipper | A | 13 | 12.4 | 3.34 |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Nevins Trophy | Skipper | A | 11 | 10.2 | 3.32 |
| Navy Fall | Skipper | C | 15 | 10.5 | 2.92 |
| Moody Trophy | Skipper | A | 10 | 5.3 | 4.33 |
| Hoyt Trophy | Skipper | A | 10 | 10.2 | 3.66 |
| Harry Anderson Jr. Trophy | Skipper | A | 10 | 7.4 | 3.47 |
| Hap Moore Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 57% | — |
| Danmark Trophy | Skipper | A | 15 | 9.2 | 4.12 |
| 74th Professor Erwin Schell Trophy | Skipper | A | 10 | 9.3 | 3.58 |
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Owen, Mosbacher and Knapp Trophies | Skipper | A | 14 | 5.4 | 4.07 |
| 33rd Lynne Marchiando Regatta | Skipper | TR | 22 | 59% | — |
| Jan T. Friis Trophy | Skipper | TR | 17 | 71% | — |
| Graham Hall Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 73% | — |
| Gill National Championship Finals | Skipper | A | 12 | 11.2 | 3.54 |
| Gill National Champs 1st round-West | Skipper | A | 5 | 7.6 | 3.68 |
| Fowle New England Team Race Champs | Skipper | TR | 11 | 46% | — |
| Coast Guard Bowl/N.E. Dinghy Champs | Skipper | A | 10 | 8.1 | 3.89 |
| 79th Boston Dinghy Cup | Skipper | A | 6 | 10.2 | 2.94 |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Sherman Hoyt Trophy | Skipper | A | 12 | 7.2 | 4.12 |
| Navy Fall | Skipper | C | 20 | 5.9 | 3.96 |
| Moody | Skipper | A | 10 | 7.5 | 3.77 |
| Hatch Brown Trophy | Skipper | A | 17 | 9.1 | 3.55 |
| 39th Harry H. Anderson Jr Trophy | Skipper | A | 14 | 6.7 | 3.96 |
| Hap Moore Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 64% | — |
| Danmark Trophy | Skipper | B | 10 | 5.2 | 4.43 |
| 73rd Annual Professor Schell Trophy | Skipper | A | 9 | 8.2 | 3.68 |
| NEISA Men's Singlehanded Champs Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 10 | 12.6 | 2.74 |
| Spring 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Truxtun Umsted | Skipper | C | 11 | 6.4 | 3.28 |
| Thompson Trophy | Skipper | B | 11 | 6.8 | 3.10 |
| Mystic Lake Team Race Invitational | Skipper | TR | 21 | 81% | — |
| Thames River Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 43% | — |
| Greater New York Dinghy Regatta | Skipper | A | 6 | 1.2 | 6.72 |
| George Morris Trophy | Skipper | B | 13 | 5.2 | 3.26 |
| BDCC Tech Regatta Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 14 | 3.5 | 3.22 |
| Fall 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| Pine Trophy Keelboat | Crew | A | 8 | 3.8 | — |
| Oberg | Skipper | A | 15 | 7.5 | 3.13 |
| Nevin's Trophy | Skipper | C | 15 | 6.9 | 3.32 |
| NEISA Men's Singlehanded Championship Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 18 | 6.9 | 3.65 |
| Navy Fall | Skipper | C | 14 | 7.0 | 3.40 |
| Moody Trophy | Skipper | A | 8 | 3.5 | 5.04 |
| LP / ICSA Men's Singlehanded Nationals Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 18 | 11.3 | 2.71 |
| Danmark Trophy | Skipper | B | 9 | 8.8 | 3.37 |
| Spring 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| Truxtun Umsted | Skipper | C | 6 | 8.3 | 3.26 |
| Thompson Trophy | Skipper | B | 18 | 11.9 | 2.19 |
| Southern Series | Skipper | A | 15 | 2.0 | 3.80 |
| Owen, Mosbacher&Knapp Trophies | Skipper | B | 12 | 4.6 | 3.33 |
| BU Trophy | Skipper | A | 8 | 6.1 | 2.93 |
| Fall 2011 Team page Season | |||||
| 138th Rudolph Oberg Trophy | Skipper | C | 11 | 4.5 | 3.51 |
| Nevins Trophy | Skipper | C | 18 | 9.2 | 2.87 |
| ICSA Men's Singlehandeds Singlehanded | Skipper | A | 15 | 11.1 | 2.79 |
| Great Herring Pond Open | Skipper | A | 9 | 7.7 | 2.10 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
