Jan T. Friis Team Race

HostRoger Williams
Date03/28/2015
TypeNOT ALLOWED Interconference
BoatFJ/Z420
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Yale University	Bulldogs	11–3
2	Harvard University	Crimson	9–5
3	Boston College	Eagles	9–5
4	Brown University	Bears	8–6
5	Roger Williams University	Hawks	8–6
6	Tufts University	Jumbos	5–9
7	Stanford University	Cardinal	6–6
8	Dartmouth College	Big Green	4–8
9	U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	4–8
10	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	2–10

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 4,801 team race matches sailed before 2015-03-28, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 46 of 66 matches (70%) with a log-loss of 0.610 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went poorly for the forecast. Orderliness −0.36 ± 0.25: an upset-heavy event, more orderly than 15% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Yale University Bulldogs	1	12.87	Graham Landy / Katherine Gaumond 5.06 10–1 Malcolm Lamphere / Chandler Gregoire 3.01 6–2 Joseph Kiss / Clara Robertson 4.02 6–2 Ian Barrows / Charlotte Belling 4.67 5–1 Ian Barrows / Meredith Megarry 4.61 4–0 Malcolm Lamphere / Clara Robertson 3.46 1–1 Graham Landy / Christopher Champa 4.47 1–1 Graham Landy / Charlotte Belling 4.97 0–1	79%	11–3 (79%)	+0.0
2	Harvard University Crimson	8	11.11 school −0.30	Brian Drumm / Jacob Bradt 4.22 Michael Drumm / Kevin Coakley 3.36 6–4 Gram Slattery / Julia Lord 3.70 5–4 Marek Zaleski / Sydney Karnovsky 3.83 4–1 Gram Slattery / Kevin Coakley 3.53 3–1	42%	9–5 (64%)	+3.2
3	Boston College Eagles	2	12.85 school +0.08	William Bailey / Katherine Wysocki 4.25 Raul Rios / Alex Palfrey 4.27 Charles Sinks / Elizabeth Barnard 4.25 8–4 Charles Sinks / Christopher Dwyer 4.07 1–1	78%	9–5 (64%)	−2.0
4	Brown University Bears	7	11.19 school +0.37	Lucas Adams / Marina Cano 3.54 Nathan Allman / Ragna Eide 3.54 8–4 Pearson Potts / Lydia Whiteford 3.85 5–6 Pearson Potts / Haley Carter 3.47 3–0 James Barry / Haley Carter 3.02 0–2	44%	8–6 (57%)	+1.9
5	Roger Williams University Hawks	3	12.07 home +0.25	William Macdonald / Breanne Baldino 4.39 Henry Vogel / Wendy Reuss 3.60 Connor Corgard / Abby Preston 3.90 7–6 Abby Preston / Riley Eger 2.94 1–0	61%	8–6 (57%)	−0.6
6	Tufts University Jumbos	4	11.66 school +0.17	Alejandro Ruiz-Ramon / Sam Madden 4.18 Dan Nickerson / Jamie Maffeo 3.63 Duncan Swain / Emily Shanley-Roberts 3.65	53%	5–9 (36%)	−2.4
7	Stanford University Cardinal	5	10.77 school +0.39	Reinier Eenkema Van Dijk / Mary Vangelos 3.27 6–5 Axel Sly / Elena Vandenberg 3.25 4–6 Will La Dow / Samantha Steele 3.81 5–4 Scott Buckstaff / Samantha Steele 3.24 1–2 Axel Sly / Daniel Ron 3.47 2–0 Scott Buckstaff / Mary Vangelos 3.23 0–1	49%	6–6 (50%)	+0.1
8	Dartmouth College Big Green	10	9.24 school −0.24	Ian Storck / Madeleine Cooney 3.19 Duncan Williford / Hope Wilson Robert Floyd / Sophie Kerr 3.27 4–5 Robert Floyd / Julia Mckown 3.22 0–3	18%	4–8 (33%)	+1.9
9	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	9	9.44	Gary Prieto / Brittany Webb-Martin 3.02 3–7 Michael Madigan / Michelle Katz 3.15 3–4 Jimmy Madigan / Mary Robertson 3.01 1–6 Addison Hackstaff / Mary Robertson 3.34 3–2 Addison Hackstaff / Michelle Katz 3.27 1–4 Michael Madigan / Brittany Webb-Martin 3.16 1–1	23%	4–8 (33%)	+1.3
10	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	6	10.62 school +0.70	Bradley Adam / Kaitlyn Noreen 3.31 Kyle Burgess / Grace Mcdougall 3.07 Chase Quinn / Hannah Chapman 3.31	44%	2–10 (17%)	−3.3

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
2	Harvard University	11.11	12.38	9–5	5.9	+1.27	2.9	4%
8	Dartmouth College	9.24	10.26	4–8	2.1	+1.02	1.5	13%
4	Brown University	11.19	11.86	8–6	6.1	+0.67	0.9	20%
9	U. S. Naval Academy	9.44	10.06	4–8	2.7	+0.62	0.6	27%
7	Stanford University	10.77	10.80	6–6	5.9	+0.03	0.0	61%
1	Yale University	12.87	12.87	11–3	11.0	−0.00	0.0	66%
5	Roger Williams University	12.07	11.83	8–6	8.6	−0.24	0.1	77%
3	Boston College	12.85	12.06	9–5	11.0	−0.79	1.2	95%
6	Tufts University	11.66	10.74	5–9	7.4	−0.91	1.6	96%
10	St. Mary's College of Maryland	10.62	8.85	2–10	5.3	−1.76	3.9	>99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Marek Zaleski	Harvard University	3.83	5.66	4–1	2.5	+1.82	1.9	14%
Michael Madigan	U. S. Naval Academy	3.15	4.65	4–5	1.6	+1.50	2.8	5%
Brian Drumm	Harvard University	4.22	5.49	9–5	5.9	+1.27	2.9	4%
Gram Slattery	Harvard University	3.70	4.96	8–5	5.0	+1.26	2.7	5%
Nathan Allman	Brown University	3.54	4.69	8–4	5.4	+1.16	2.2	8%
Michael Drumm	Harvard University	3.36	4.41	6–4	4.2	+1.05	1.3	16%
Ian Barrows	Yale University	4.67	5.72	9–1	7.8	+1.05	0.8	30%
Ian Storck	Dartmouth College	3.19	4.21	4–8	2.1	+1.02	1.5	13%
Robert Floyd	Dartmouth College	3.27	4.29	4–8	2.1	+1.02	1.5	13%
Addison Hackstaff	U. S. Naval Academy	3.34	4.10	4–6	2.6	+0.76	0.8	23%
Lucas Adams	Brown University	3.54	4.22	8–6	6.1	+0.67	0.9	20%
Reinier Eenkema Van Dijk	Stanford University	3.27	3.53	6–5	5.5	+0.26	0.1	49%
Gary Prieto	U. S. Naval Academy	3.02	3.25	3–7	2.6	+0.23	0.1	51%
Axel Sly	Stanford University	3.25	3.28	6–6	5.9	+0.03	0.0	61%
Graham Landy	Yale University	5.06	5.06	11–3	11.0	−0.00	0.0	66%
William Macdonald	Roger Williams University	4.39	4.15	8–6	8.6	−0.24	0.1	77%
Henry Vogel	Roger Williams University	3.60	3.36	8–6	8.6	−0.24	0.1	77%
Connor Corgard	Roger Williams University	3.90	3.57	7–6	7.8	−0.32	0.2	80%
Jimmy Madigan	U. S. Naval Academy	3.01	2.42	1–6	1.5	−0.59	0.2	85%
Joseph Kiss	Yale University	4.02	3.43	6–2	6.7	−0.59	0.3	88%
William Bailey	Boston College	4.25	3.45	9–5	11.0	−0.79	1.2	95%
Raul Rios	Boston College	4.27	3.47	9–5	11.0	−0.79	1.2	95%
Alejandro Ruiz-Ramon	Tufts University	4.18	3.26	5–9	7.4	−0.91	1.6	96%
Dan Nickerson	Tufts University	3.63	2.72	5–9	7.4	−0.91	1.6	96%
Duncan Swain	Tufts University	3.65	2.73	5–9	7.4	−0.91	1.6	96%
Scott Buckstaff	Stanford University	3.24	1.83	1–3	2.2	−1.41	1.2	97%
Bradley Adam	St. Mary's College of Maryland	3.31	1.55	2–10	5.3	−1.76	3.9	>99%
Kyle Burgess	St. Mary's College of Maryland	3.07	1.31	2–10	5.3	−1.76	3.9	>99%
Chase Quinn	St. Mary's College of Maryland	3.31	1.55	2–10	5.3	−1.76	3.9	>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Roger Williams University	U. S. Naval Academy	84%
1	2	Harvard University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	64%
1	3	Stanford University	Dartmouth College	84%
1	4	Tufts University	Brown University	58%
1	5	Yale University	Boston College	45%	upset
1	6	Harvard University	U. S. Naval Academy	86%
1	7	Roger Williams University	Dartmouth College	95%
1	8	Brown University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	69%
1	9	Yale University	Stanford University	79%
1	10	Boston College	Tufts University	77%
1	11	Harvard University	Dartmouth College	87%
1	12	Brown University	U. S. Naval Academy	88%
1	13	Yale University	Roger Williams University	83%
1	14	Tufts University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	75%
1	15	Boston College	Stanford University	88%
1	16	Brown University	Dartmouth College	89%
1	17	Yale University	Harvard University	94%
1	18	Tufts University	U. S. Naval Academy	90%
1	19	Roger Williams University	Stanford University	78%
1	20	Boston College	St. Mary's College of Maryland	91%
1	21	Brown University	Yale University	29%	upset
1	22	Tufts University	Dartmouth College	92%
1	23	Harvard University	Stanford University	54%
1	24	U. S. Naval Academy	St. Mary's College of Maryland	26%	upset
1	25	Boston College	Roger Williams University	68%
1	26	Yale University	Tufts University	76%
1	27	Brown University	Stanford University	64%
1	28	Dartmouth College	St. Mary's College of Maryland	20%	upset
1	29	Roger Williams University	Harvard University	75%
1	30	Boston College	U. S. Naval Academy	97%
1	31	Stanford University	Tufts University	33%	upset
1	32	Yale University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	87%
1	33	Brown University	Roger Williams University	24%	upset
1	34	Dartmouth College	U. S. Naval Academy	48%	upset
1	35	Harvard University	Boston College	20%	upset
1	36	Stanford University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	58%
1	37	Roger Williams University	Tufts University	62%
1	38	U. S. Naval Academy	Yale University	4%	upset
1	39	Harvard University	Brown University	62%
1	40	Boston College	Dartmouth College	97%
1	41	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Roger Williams University	19%	upset
1	42	U. S. Naval Academy	Stanford University	31%	upset
1	43	Harvard University	Tufts University	35%	upset
1	44	Dartmouth College	Yale University	5%	upset
1	45	Brown University	Boston College	17%	upset
4	46	Dartmouth College	U. S. Naval Academy	48%	upset
4	47	Stanford University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	57%
4	48	Stanford University	Dartmouth College	85%
4	49	U. S. Naval Academy	St. Mary's College of Maryland	25%	upset
4	50	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Dartmouth College	80%
4	51	Stanford University	U. S. Naval Academy	69%
6	52	Yale University	Boston College	49%	upset
6	53	Brown University	Roger Williams University	26%	upset
6	54	Harvard University	Tufts University	35%	upset
6	55	Yale University	Brown University	72%
6	56	Boston College	Tufts University	77%
6	57	Roger Williams University	Harvard University	75%
6	58	Tufts University	Brown University	58%
6	59	Yale University	Roger Williams University	83%
6	60	Boston College	Harvard University	80%
6	61	Roger Williams University	Tufts University	62%
6	62	Boston College	Brown University	83%
6	63	Yale University	Harvard University	94%
6	64	Roger Williams University	Boston College	32%	upset
6	65	Yale University	Tufts University	77%
6	66	Harvard University	Brown University	61%

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Bulldogs	Crimson	Eagles	Bears	Hawks	Jumbos	Cardinal	Green	Midshipmen	Seahawks
Yale University Bulldogs	6–3	✕	W	W	L	W	W	W	L	L	W
Harvard University Crimson	7–2	L	✕	W	W	L	W	W	W	W	W
Boston College Eagles	6–3	L	L	✕	L	W	W	W	W	W	W
Brown University Bears	7–2	W	L	W	✕	W	L	W	W	W	W
Roger Williams University Hawks	5–4	L	W	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W	L
Tufts University Jumbos	4–5	L	L	L	W	L	✕	L	W	W	W
Stanford University Cardinal	3–6	L	L	L	L	L	W	✕	W	L	W
Dartmouth College Big Green	3–6	W	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	3–6	W	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	✕	W
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	1–8	L	L	L	L	W	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 4

Team	Rec.	Cardinal	Green	Midshipmen	Seahawks
Stanford University Cardinal	3–0	✕	W	W	W
Dartmouth College Big Green	1–2	L	✕	W	L
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	1–2	L	L	✕	W
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	1–2	L	W	L	✕

Round 6

Team	Rec.	Bulldogs	Crimson	Eagles	Bears	Hawks	Jumbos
Yale University Bulldogs	5–0	✕	W	W	W	W	W
Harvard University Crimson	2–3	L	✕	L	W	L	W
Boston College Eagles	3–2	L	W	✕	W	L	W
Brown University Bears	1–4	L	L	L	✕	W	L
Roger Williams University Hawks	3–2	L	W	W	L	✕	W
Tufts University Jumbos	1–4	L	L	L	W	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Hawks	1-2-6	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-5
2	Crimson	1-2-3	def.	Seahawks	4-5-6
3	Cardinal	1-4-5	def.	Big Green	2-3-6
4	Jumbos	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
5	Bulldogs	1-2-6	def.	Eagles	3-4-5
6	Crimson	2-3-4	def.	Midshipmen	1-5-6
7	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Big Green	4-5-6
8	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks	3-4-6
9	Bulldogs	1-3-4	def.	Cardinal	2-5-6
10	Eagles	1-4-5	def.	Jumbos	2-3-6
11	Crimson	1-2-3	def.	Big Green	4-5-6
12	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-6
13	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Hawks	4-5-6
14	Jumbos	1-4-5	def.	Seahawks	2-3-6
15	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Cardinal	3-4-6
16	Bears	2-3-4	def.	Big Green	1-5-6
17	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Crimson	3-5-6
18	Jumbos	1-2-3	def.	Midshipmen	4-5-6
19	Hawks	1-2-6	def.	Cardinal	3-4-5
20	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Seahawks	3-5-6
21	Bears	2-3-5	def.	Bulldogs	1-4-6
22	Jumbos	1-2-6	def.	Big Green	3-4-5
23	Crimson	2-3-4	def.	Cardinal	1-5-6
24	Midshipmen	1-3-6	def.	Seahawks	2-4-5
25	Eagles	2-3-4	def.	Hawks	1-5-6
26	Bulldogs	2-3-4	def.	Jumbos	1-5-6
27	Bears	1-4-5	def.	Cardinal	2-3-6
28	Big Green	1-3-5	def.	Seahawks	2-4-6
29	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Crimson	3-4-6
30	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Midshipmen	4-5-6
31	Cardinal	1-4-5	def.	Jumbos	2-3-6
32	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Seahawks	4-5-6
33	Bears	3-4-6	def.	Hawks	1-2-5 DSQ
34	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-6
35	Crimson	1-2-4	def.	Eagles	3-5-6
36	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks	3-4-6
37	Hawks	1-3-5	def.	Jumbos	2-4-6
38	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-6
39	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
40	Eagles	2-3-4	def.	Big Green	1-5-6
41	Seahawks	1-4-5	def.	Hawks	2-3-6 DSQ
42	Midshipmen	1-2-6	def.	Cardinal	3-4-5
43	Crimson	1-4-5	def.	Jumbos	2-3-6
44	Big Green	2-3-4	def.	Bulldogs	1-5-6
45	Bears	1-4-5	def.	Eagles	2-3-6
46	Big Green	2-3-4	def.	Midshipmen	1-5-6
47	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Seahawks	3-5-6
48	Cardinal	2-3-5	def.	Big Green	1-4-6
49	Midshipmen	1-2-3	def.	Seahawks	4-5-6
50	Seahawks	1-2-5	def.	Big Green	3-4-6
51	Cardinal	2-3-4	def.	Midshipmen	1-5-6
52	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Eagles	3-4-6
53	Bears	3-4-6	def.	Hawks	1-2-5 DSQ
54	Crimson	1-2-3	def.	Jumbos	4-5-6
55	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
56	Eagles	1-3-6	def.	Jumbos	2-4-5
57	Hawks	1-2-5 DSQ	def.	Crimson	3-4-6 DSQ
58	Jumbos	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
59	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Hawks	4-5-6
60	Eagles	2-3-5	def.	Crimson	1-4-6
61	Hawks	1-2-6	def.	Jumbos	3-4-5
62	Eagles	2-3-4	def.	Bears	1-5-6
63	Bulldogs	2-3-4	def.	Crimson	1-5-6
64	Hawks	2-4-6	def.	Eagles	1-3-5 RAF
65	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
66	Crimson	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Yale University	Bulldogs	Graham Landy '15 Ian Barrows '17 Joseph Kiss '17 Malcolm Lamphere '18	Christopher Champa '18 Katherine Gaumond '15 Charlotte Belling '16 Meredith Megarry '17 Clara Robertson '17 Chandler Gregoire '17
Harvard University	Crimson	Brian Drumm '15 Gram Slattery '15 Marek Zaleski '16 Michael Drumm '15	Jacob Bradt '16 Julia Lord '17 Kevin Coakley '18 Sydney Karnovsky '16
Boston College	Eagles	Charles Sinks '18 Raul Rios '16 William Bailey '15	Elizabeth Barnard '15 Christopher Dwyer '15 Alex Palfrey '17 Katherine Wysocki '15
Brown University	Bears	James Barry '16 Lucas Adams '15 Nathan Allman '16 Pearson Potts '16	Haley Carter '17 Marina Cano '17 Ragna Eide '16 Lydia Whiteford '15
Roger Williams University	Hawks	Abby Preston '15 Connor Corgard '16 Henry Vogel '15 William Macdonald '15	Riley Eger '17 Abby Preston '15 Wendy Reuss '15 Breanne Baldino '16
Tufts University	Jumbos	Alejandro Ruiz-Ramon '15 Dan Nickerson '15 Duncan Swain '15	Sam Madden '15 Jamie Maffeo '15 Emily Shanley-Roberts '18
Stanford University	Cardinal	Axel Sly '16 Reinier Eenkema Van Dijk '17 Scott Buckstaff '17 Will La Dow '18	Elena Vandenberg '18 Daniel Ron '17 Mary Vangelos '17 Samantha Steele '16
Dartmouth College	Big Green	Duncan Williford '18 Ian Storck '15 Robert Floyd '17	Hope Wilson '16 Madeleine Cooney '17 Sophie Kerr '17 Julia Mckown '17
U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	Addison Hackstaff '18 Gary Prieto '18 Jimmy Madigan '18 Michael Madigan '17	Mary Robertson '17 Michelle Katz '18 Brittany Webb-Martin '18
St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	Bradley Adam '17 Chase Quinn '17 Kyle Burgess '17	Kaitlyn Noreen '16 Hannah Chapman '17 Grace Mcdougall '16

Conditions — 03/28/2015 (8am–6pm)

🌨️Moderate snow

Humidity 91% · Pressure 1007.7 hPa

Temperature

34°F

↑ 35°F ↓ 34°F

Feels like 26°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

9.9 kn

avg · max 12.4 kn

Gusts to 24.3 kn

From N (8°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine0.0 hrs Humidity91% Pressure1007.7 hPa Rain0.08 in Snow1.21 in

What this breeze does at Roger Williams — from fleet racing

Breeze: N about 12 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Roger Williams in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.06)

Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.06 means a rating gap counts about 5% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Roger Williams by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (20 labelled fleet-race days at Roger Williams).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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